North West Regional Discussion 29th March 2013 14:00hrs>

[SP1986]

My statistics suggest there is in fact more instances of thunder/lightning on average in winter than there is in summer. Where as you say the sea works with us in winter, similarly it works against us in summer. Of course storms in the winter are in general much weaker affairs than some of the storms in summer, but it is definitely a fascinating subject and attaches itself to my side interest in localised temperature variations at the coast.

[julie253]

Hopefully it's one I can learn more about it. Our weather here is so different to anywhere else in the country and seems to be very difficult to predict

[itsnowjoke]

Hopefully it's one I can learn more about it. Our weather here is so different to anywhere else in the country and seems to be very difficult to predict

It sure is

[davacr123]

The type of precipitation around

[julie253]

I'm sure you guys will help me if I have any questions

[SP1986]

I'm sure you guys will help me if I have any questions

 

for sure.. ask away. 

 

Temperature is rising now, welcome to the thermal rollercoaster!

[Miamay]

Am off to work guys but will be following with interest !!

[itsnowjoke]

for sure.. ask away.   Temperature is rising now, welcome to the thermal rollercoaster!

Yes and eternal bags under our eyes from staying up to late model watching and Lampost watching.

[cheshire snow]

Hi SP

 

See you are posting winter must be on the way LOL...

 

Quick question when we are having a cold snap what causes a warm sector in a front aka Wednesday

it so annoying we would have had a decent snow event but for this...

 

C.S

[Chris.R]

My statistics suggest there is in fact more instances of thunder/lightning on average in winter than there is in summer. Where as you say the sea works with us in winter, similarly it works against us in summer. Of course storms in the winter are in general much weaker affairs than some of the storms in summer, but it is definitely a fascinating subject and attaches itself to my side interest in localised temperature variations at the coast.

Yes, definitely, especially this year, I can say that I have had more thunder events  in the last 2 months than the past 2 summers put together. Having lived here in Crosby all my life, I can definitely say that the weather here is often very different from the surrounding areas, it does interest me greatly. Sometimes I despair living here, but other times, I love it.

[Chris.R]

Hopefully it's one I can learn more about it. Our weather here is so different to anywhere else in the country and seems to be very difficult to predict

Yes, it often is, hence why I say expect the unexpected.

[julie253]

I love it too . I could prob wave to you Chris lol.

It does seem to be more extreme the last few years though

[Chris.R]

oh and,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graupel

Remember that definition, a lot of the precipitation from Irish sea convection is graupel, and is often mistaken for hail.

[SP1986]

Hi SP

 

See you are posting winter must be on the way LOL...

 

Quick question when we are having a cold snap what causes a warm sector in a front aka Wednesday

it so annoying we would have had a decent snow event but for this...

 

C.S

 

Just literally a matter of sea surface temperatures. The sea is 'warm' at the moment, as we're just winding down from the maximum sea surface temperatures of the year, and of course we've had a warm summer, so they are amomalously higher - not just around the British Isles, but further north around Iceland. Therefore what starts as a cold front over the Greenland area, with true Arctic air, evolves into a complex system of frontal boundaries and airmasses, as it move over warmer water towards the British Isles.

 

It's similar in a sense to a Hurricane development; over tropical waters a Hurricane has no fronts, as it moves northeastwards over the cooler water, it first develops a warm front ( becoming a tropical depression), then it develops a warm and cold (and sometimes occluded front) and evolves from there into an ex-tropical storm/Atlantic storm. 

Edited November 18, 2013 by SP1986

[Chris.R]

I love it too . I could prob wave to you Chris lol.It does seem to be more extreme the last few years though

Yes, in the last few years, we have more often than not been on the right side of marginal during snow events, with an increase in Irish Sea convection during the winter. Whether this is just luck, or something else, I don't know.

[julie253]

Will look at that when I get the laptop in the morning Chris. Am on my phone at the min

[SP1986]

Currently temperature wise, the coldest in the region I can find it currently Macclesfield = 1C

 

The warmest appears to be West Kirby (Wirral) at 7C

[Chris.R]

Imminent rain alarm just went off, and sure enough, a shower just going through, only rain at the moment, no hail or graupel. Temp 5.0°C and dropping.

[pip22]

Atleast its gonna be stormy on Wednesday. If we don't get snow we get freezing cold severe gale force winds instead. It will be bitterly cold with the wind on Wed. Thats what Matt Taylor just said few hours ago. Heres the weather warning from the beeb for wind:

 

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of WIND

The north or northwesterly winds will increase during the early hours of Wednesday, with gusts perhaps reaching 70 mph in places.

The public should be aware that the winds are likely to be strong enough to cause some local disruption to travel, and possible some minor structural damage to buildings. The winds will slowly moderate from the west during Wednesday evening.

Valid from 0300 to 2359 on Wednesday 20th November.

 

I'm guessing the windchill would be around 0 to -3 I think.

Edited November 18, 2013 by pip22

[Chris.R]

Atleast its gonna be stormy on Wednesday. If we don't get snow we get freezing cold severe gale force winds instead. It will be bitterly cold with the wind on Wed. Thats what Matt Taylor just said few hours ago. Heres the weather warning for wind:

 

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of WIND

The north or northwesterly winds will increase during the early hours of Wednesday, with gusts perhaps reaching 70 mph in places.

The public should be aware that the winds are likely to be strong enough to cause some local disruption to travel, and possible some minor structural damage to buildings. The winds will slowly moderate from the west during Wednesday evening.

Valid from 0300 to 2359 on Wednesday 20th November.

Interesting. Not had a gale from that direction for a while.

[itsnowjoke]

Atleast its gonna be stormy on Wednesday. If we don't get snow we get freezing cold severe gale force winds instead. It will be bitterly cold with the wind on Wed. Thats what Matt Taylor just said few hours ago. Heres the weather warning for wind:

 

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of WIND

The north or northwesterly winds will increase during the early hours of Wednesday, with gusts perhaps reaching 70 mph in places.

The public should be aware that the winds are likely to be strong enough to cause some local disruption to travel, and possible some minor structural damage to buildings. The winds will slowly moderate from the west during Wednesday evening.

Valid from 0300 to 2359 on Wednesday 20th November.

Something else to keep me up.

[SP1986]

Imminent rain alarm just went off, and sure enough, a shower just going through, only rain at the moment, no hail or graupel. Temp 5.0°C and dropping.

 What kit are you using there?

 

Regarding the winds, I noticed this on the models, there could be some violent gusts, as the warm airmass follows the cold airmass, the speed at which the wind will pick up looks quite impressive, it could go from being 10mph mean speeds, to 40mph mean speeds in an hour, along the coast. 

Edited November 18, 2013 by SP1986

[cheshire snow]

SP

 

Have you seen the fax charts this evening the warm sector on Wednesday is not as big still rain for us though

However there is a trough moving down after into the colder air....am I reading the fax chart correctly?

 

C.S

[itsnowjoke]

Just love being ignored in the Model Thread Pfft.

[Chris.R]

 What kit are you using there?

 

Regarding the winds, I noticed this on the models, there could be some violent gusts, as the warm airmass follows the cold airmass, the speed at which the wind will pick up looks quite impressive, it could go from being 10mph mean speeds, to 40mph mean speeds in an hour, along the coast. 

I'm using "strikedisplay", which has an imminent rain alarm and precipitation track which is fairly accurate. http://www.nowcast.co.uk/lightning_intro/main.htm

Was useful over the summer for the few thunderstorms we got. Lots of tabular data, I like tabular data lol. 

What you say about the winds, yes, something to keep an eye on.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Chris R