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Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Hi John,

I think this particular dataset is displayed in knots. For demonstration purposes, heres the accompanying chart showing the maximum wind gusts:

post-1038-0-68972500-1364482086_thumb.pn

Perhaps I am reading that completely incorrectly, but from what I can make out the (kts) at the top left of the image indicates that the corresponding scale is in knots.

Kind Regards,

SK

Snowking what happened to the snow showers today!!am sure you said a couple of days ago that today was looking very interesting for some lovely snow showers acrosd central and eastern areas but there is zilch!!not even a light snoe shower at the moment!!
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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Snowking what happened to the snow showers today!!am sure you said a couple of days ago that today was looking very interesting for some lovely snow showers acrosd central and eastern areas but there is zilch!!not even a light snoe shower at the moment!!

Absolutely shaky from earlier this week the profiles were looking most conducive to shower activity today

We discussed this a littler earlier on the SE regional thread and unfortunately despite higher and higher resolution modelling running increasingly complex models of physics, they still struggle with precipitation more than anything. Even as of last night, there was unanimous high resolution modelling consensus on snow flurries through the Thames estuary...yet absolutely none have materialised today

SK

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

Anyone interested in the idea of another Little Ice Age, whether it will happen, could it account for the change in weather patterns in recent years etc please head on over here, where there's quite an interesting conversation going on:

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

The UK and Ireland, the driest places in Europe.

UW72-594.GIF?28-16

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted (edited)

Absolutely shaky from earlier this week the profiles were looking most conducive to shower activity today

We discussed this a littler earlier on the SE regional thread and unfortunately despite higher and higher resolution modelling running increasingly complex models of physics, they still struggle with precipitation more than anything. Even as of last night, there was unanimous high resolution modelling consensus on snow flurries through the Thames estuary...yet absolutely none have materialised today

SK

Never mind hopefully we can get snow over the next couple of weeks!!even some flurries will do me fine!! Edited by shaky
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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted (edited)

The UK and Ireland, the driest places in Europe.

UW72-594.GIF?28-16

plus Belgium too. blum.gif Edited by pip22
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Can I just ask why the uppers on UKMO have been colder than GFS quite a bit lately

Even just 30 hours away there is a noticeable difference

UKMO

UW30-7.GIF?28-16

GFS

gfs-1-30.png?12

The UK and Ireland, the driest places in Europe.

UW72-594.GIF?28-16

Makes a change

good.gif

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

Can I just ask why the uppers on UKMO have been colder than GFS quite a bit lately

Even just 30 hours away there is a noticeable difference

UKMO

GFS

Yes I've been noting this even at very early time frames. The GFS also tends to be colder in its first frame than it was projecting 6hrs earlier. The quick comparison I did seemed to show that the UKMOs predictions at say +48hrs were closer to the mark when that rolled in to verify, and that the GFS was warming the uppers too quickly.

Makes a change

good.gif

Which is why I noted it. A cold change of course.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Still differences at 96 hours

gfs-0-96.png?12

East/South Easterly flow dry for all

UKMO

UW96-21.GIF?28-17

North Easterly with snow showers for the South East

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Look NE...

gfs-0-204.png?12

wallbash.gif

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No Balls Like Snow Balls Experienced

No Balls Like Snow Balls

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
Posted

Higher snow risk in FI on the 12z GFS http://www.meteociel...&ech=228&mode=2

The snow fans are now getting as desperate as the mildies by looking into deep FI for snow lolrofl.gif

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

The snow fans are now getting as desperate as the mildies by looking into deep FI for snow lolrofl.gif

Well i did say earlier that april could be just as cold and snowy as march and gfs is very close to showing this!!
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

where's are cold gone!!!

gfs-1-360.png?12

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No Balls Like Snow Balls Experienced

No Balls Like Snow Balls

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
Posted (edited)

Well i did say earlier that april could be just as cold and snowy as march and gfs is very close to showing this!!

It's just a chart in la la land. It's not reality. it's not conducive to a mega cold April is it? I fear you maybe suffering snow stroke and it has sent you delirious rofl.gif

Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted

Gavin, get the sun cream ready!?

gfs-1-384.png?12

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

GFS 12z FI has much colder uppers than iether the 00z or the 06z coming back into Europe via Scandinavia heading for the UK. The hint was there with the earlier runs though

gfs-0-264.png?12

gfs-1-276.png?12

Amazingly cold for the time of year in parts of Scandinavia. Will be interesting to see what the ENS show this time.

Further out a ridge appears to want to collapse over us ushering in westerlies again - we'll see LOL

gfsnh-0-360.png?12

With that pressure profile it's tenuous to say the least.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

where's are cold gone!!!

gfs-1-360.png?12

Its finally had enough in the UK and has gone on holiday somewhere else!

good.gif

The Azores is having its say more in the final few frames tonight

gfs-0-384.png?12

gfs-1-384.png?12

Goes to the shop for some sun cream

rofl.gif

Edited by Gavin.
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GFS 12z FI has much colder uppers than iether the 00z or the 06z coming back into Europe via Scandinavia heading for the UK. The hint was there with the earlier runs though

gfs-0-264.png?12

gfs-1-276.png?12

Amazingly cold for the time of year in parts of Scandinavia. Will be interesting to see what the ENS show this time.

Further out a ridge appears to want to collapse over us ushering in westerlies again - we'll see LOL

gfsnh-0-360.png?12

With that pressure profile it's tenuous to say the least.

Yep I mentioned yesterday that there was a consistent theme for another cold pool of air to sink south into Europe. Whether we can tap into it is a different matter but the risk is certainly there IMO.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

guys...it really is a complete waste of time looking at fi for any grains of hope, regardless of whether its cold or heat. anything past t240 = forget it.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

PV finally starting to die off.

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

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