Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Paul]

Please continue the model discussion here, and as ever please try to stay on topic.

For more random model related banter, ramps and moans, please head over to the banter thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

If you're looking for a slower paced, more in depth discussion surrounding the models, please head over to this thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/

And as ever you can view all the main charts here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Lincslad]

The models continue the colder weather for somewhat longer, but the threat of significant snowfall has now reduced in the outlook with temps moderating slightly next week.

[johnholmes]

ta Paul-you must have been doing this as I tried to post so ignore my comment in the other thread.

That post simply commented on how the 500mb anomaly charts seem locked into a block of some type for the next 10-20 days. All 3 and the NAEFS version show a similar idea with a block preventing any sign of mild air getting into the UK. Below is the latest output from ECMWF-GFS.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Quite what the effect will be on those who require a more 'normal' type of weather as we head from March into April is hard to put into words. Harsh is one that springs to mind (sorry for the pun=not intended). I assume that sheep farmers, if there is not repeat of the blizzard of last week will move forward. Market gardens and those with reliance on more spring like weather are obviously going to continue to suffer. Arable farmers may benefit from the dry weather which should allow them to get on their fields but I may be wrong there.

I honestly cannot recall a March like this and my stats over 17 years support that comment. Just how far back any similar March I suspect that 1962 is the one that is being mentioned a lot but I am not sure.

Highly unusual synoptics that is for sure.

[SLEETY]

Amazing runs again, the blocking high well in charge,

if this had been early jan I dread to think how cold it would have been and how people would have coped.Are we heading towards the "little ice age winters" again of years gone by ?

Edited March 28, 2013 by SLEETY

[weather_it_will]

The models continue the colder weather for somewhat longer, but the threat of significant snowfall has now reduced in the outlook with temps moderating slightly next week.

The ECM shows midlands southwards does not stay milder for long with colder 850 temps returning before the end of next week.

[lorenzo]

Crazy chart from the ECM, this at the end of the run shows the 0 degree line for uppers clear the South West coast of mainland Spain heading towards the Canaries, really bizarre considering the Azores is usually languishing around here waiting to pounce, perhaps it is on holiday in California..

More retrogression also on the run and the UK high builds back to a Scandi High. Northern blocking it seems is the background pattern that we are locked into, another episode of a fixed weather singularity that won't be shifted easily.

[picog]

If our part of the northern hemisphere (NH) is locked into cold, is another part of the NH locked into anomalous warmth?

[Summer Sun]

The GFS ensembles show a slow rise over the next 2 weeks getting to around average towards the end, the one positive this morning is the period is looking very dry with any precipitation in the form of showers rather than prolonged periods of rain / snow

[Onetwo07]

Would that model mean frost etc for the south of Spain?! Or is the sun so strong there that the upper air temperatures have very little effect?

[Coast]

Is this anomaly around the 5th April likely to see a change in patterns?

500 - 1000 hts drop way down to 520 dam in London according to GFS latest free-atmosphere for the City

[Purga]

'Tatty splendiferous' output again as Ken Dodd might have said (showing my antiquity again) - LOL!

All models showing a continuation of the incredible Easterly Monsoon pattern again this morning, with ECM, if anything, significantly strengthening the Northern blocking with a pulse of WAA at 216hrs which develops a powerful HP over the GIN sea at 240hrs! Likely to deflect any Atlantic energy south again and then east under the block allowing it to drift west towards Greenland - as per the cpc anomaly charts for days 6 right through to 14 I posted last night in the old thread.

The air source is still very cold at 216-240hrs and likely to get colder if the HP does retrogress west as CAA brings further Artic air SW around the eastern & southern flank into Europe / UK.

I know many don't share my own quirky fascination with this exceptional spell of weather (which I fully appreciate) but like it or love it one has to admit it really is a noteworthy experience particularly for us weather enthusiasts. Of course it won't last for ever but my goodness it's marvelous to behold as it goes on!

I'm am seriously wondering whether there is or will be any longer term weather pattern 'shift' we are witnessing or whether it will be zonal 'business as usual' after thiis ends?

Edited March 28, 2013 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

Is this anomaly around the 5th April likely to see a change in patterns?

500 - 1000 hts drop way down to 520 dam in London according to GFS latest free-atmosphere for the City

Maybe around that time the ECM ens are showing the (long awaited for many) building of the azores high and possible flattening of the pattern to a more westerly regime.

If the ECM op verified though then it would be two more weeks of cold at least with a big Scandi high building.

[cobby]

Would that model mean frost etc for the south of Spain?! Or is the sun so strong there that the upper air temperatures have very little effect?

Saw 3" of snow in Barcelona 3 years ago in early March, but it didnt last long in the sunshine. I guess if that model came true you could get frost in North East Spain.

[mushymanrob]

ta Paul-you must have been doing this as I tried to post so ignore my comment in the other thread.

That post simply commented on how the 500mb anomaly charts seem locked into a block of some type for the next 10-20 days. All 3 and the NAEFS version show a similar idea with a block preventing any sign of mild air getting into the UK. Below is the latest output from ECMWF-GFS.

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

Quite what the effect will be on those who require a more 'normal' type of weather as we head from March into April is hard to put into words. Harsh is one that springs to mind (sorry for the pun=not intended). I assume that sheep farmers, if there is not repeat of the blizzard of last week will move forward. Market gardens and those with reliance on more spring like weather are obviously going to continue to suffer. Arable farmers may benefit from the dry weather which should allow them to get on their fields but I may be wrong there.

I honestly cannot recall a March like this and my stats over 17 years support that comment. Just how far back any similar March I suspect that 1962 is the one that is being mentioned a lot but I am not sure.

Highly unusual synoptics that is for sure.

chilling words john, (pardon that pun lol) hopefully the block might align itself to introduce less cold and in the sun itll be nice.

the gfs ensembles continue to suggest a gradual warm up looking at the uppers, but they have been showing that for weeks now and theyve been wrong. the ops dont support a gradual warm up (to still below average), just modifying of the block and resultant weather we get. its looking cold, dry, and after a calmer sunnier weekend back to easterlies and cloudier conditions.

my business will not go bust until june (assuming it sticks that long)..... but if i cannt make back enough money in the remnants of the season, i will go bust next winter. i imagine market gardeners, garden centres, will be in a similar situation.

[Guest pjl20101]

I think John Holmes is right on this solution as I can see a cool, anticyclonic sort of pattern and it may possibly last beyond the timescale that he has mentioned. The MJO model should also be monitored too for some likely evolutions. A crumb of comfort is that the SOIs are trending back towards a neutral type of scenario after being in a la Nina regime, hence the atmospheric conditions. The atmospheric angular momentum is now roughly how it should be too.

[Summer Sun]

Well this morning we are seeing some positive steps from the ECM ensemble run with the Azores finally building into April

Slow and steady wins the race

Edited March 28, 2013 by Gavin.

[Mark Neal.]

We live in hope!, that by Mid April we have High Pressure over us... By this point we really want to start seeing more seasonal spring warmth!

Caution this chart is 384hrs away!

[Captain Shortwave]

More energy undercuting in this GFS run

00z

Edited March 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

More energy undercuting in this GFS run

00z

Mr captain shortwave forget about looking at the models for a few weeks!!especially the ones looking for mild cos it looks like we are gona b stuck in this pattern for a very long time maybe even till the end of april!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Mr captain shortwave forget about looking at the models for a few weeks!!especially the ones looking for mild cos it looks like we are gona b stuck in this pattern for a very long time maybe even till the end of april!!

Ha I'm just commenting on the charts, not exactly looking for anything in particular, though some warmth would be nice. On the other hand it's been pretty sunny (unusual for my location given a north easterly wind)

But yeah with charts like this there is only one outcome to be honest

Well our block to the north is going to be reinvigorated again

Edited March 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

Well it really is a fascinating time watching the weather, i love seeing us witness breaking weather records, i can't remember ever witnessing a cold winter like this one which has lasted this far into spring, phenominal really. However cloudy skies generally on an easterly with the odd flurry can be boring, so would nbe nice to get some spring sunshine.

Well its as you were over the next few days. More in the way of sunshine though which is much better. Risk of snow showers/flurries further east..

1st of April. Temperatures upto 7-8c, but 5c in the north.. Best i can manage to find for the mild lovers...

Looks like thereafter still hanging onto winds coming from the NE/E brisk at times, but dry, which will be welcome relief to those recovering from wet weather last week and those who have seen livestock hurt/killed in the snow drifts last weekend...

Notice how the jet stream is far south, right down into Spain, proper blocking pattern this is, and will hard to move, could well be mid april before any signs of spring warmth...

Edited March 28, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[shaky]

Ha I'm just commenting on the charts, not exactly looking for anything in particular, though some warmth would be nice. On the other hand it's been pretty sunny (unusual for my location given a north easterly wind)

But yeah with charts like this there is only one outcome to be honest

Well our block to the north is going to be reinvigorated again

That chart is beautifull!!i have a feeling it will be even colder in april and as a cold and snow lover am not complaining!!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

That chart is beautifull!!i have a feeling it will be even colder in april and as a cold and snow lover am not complaining!!

I find it hard to believe that April will be even colder than March. You forget we are heading towards summer not Autumn heading into winter. With the sun strengthening and the days getting longer the odds are well stacked against it.

Edited March 28, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Yarmy]

That chart is beautifull!!i have a feeling it will be even colder in april and as a cold and snow lover am not complaining!!

Coldest April (Aprils in fact) on record had a CET of 4.7

March CET is going to come in 2.5-3.0 probably.

So no chance.

[Purga]

06z does nothing more than re-confirm the established theme offering the hint of stronger easterlies after the weekend which really are going to be piercing especially in the south

Retrogression on the cards in FI potentially opening up the arctic floodgates again to the NE

The Scandinavians must really be freezing their collective butts off!

Goes Gavinesque right at the end of FI

But looking at the NH view heights are building into Greenland from the High Arctic so I wouldn't get the deckchairs dusted down quite yet!

Also the last 2 charts are A: FI and it is B: the GFS 06z - 'nuff said.

Edited March 28, 2013 by Purga