Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[cheese]

Oh gawd not another Scandinavian Easterly on it's way, they've brought nothing but cold rain here since 95. I understand why they are popular on here as most of Net Weathers members are from the South, but those of us on the Western side rarely see anything from such a set up besides cloudy skies and cold rain. Here's to the models barking up the wrong tree!

Indeed. I mean, easterlies can deliver here, but not as frequently as, say, north-easterly winds, and usually not as good as the South (East). Nine times out of then, they just deliver static temperatures with slate-grey skies, and even if it does snow, it'd still be pretty boring. I want cold and sunny like Dec 2010 (not as cold, obviously - that's asking for too much).

Edited December 3, 2013 by cheese

[cheese]

How I feel about the UK's climate right now:

 

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't usually post in here but I can see my "elephant in the room" heading through my front door from Friday onwards.

 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL IMBY until near on mid-December. Not all bad I guess, as things could be worse but there is a strong sense of de ja vu coming up.

Edited December 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[snowangel32]

Easterlies can be GD for battleground scenarios but getting one in place is going to be a long road of drama I bet and you can bet some little short wave will pop up again lets see what comes

[Strider]

People comparing the beginning of EVERY WINTER to 62/63 really grinds my gears.

 

The majority of posters being unduly optimistic when the models show the most benign weather possible for the next 2 weeks (and similarly being unduly pessimistic when the cold actually does come).

 

I think everyone should at some point should read through the model topics of the truly uneventful winter periods (like first half of 2011/2012 or 2007/2008 etc) and learn something from hindsight. Not every winter has to be a special one.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Strider

[Methuselah]

People comparing the beginning of EVERY WINTER to 62/63 really grinds my gears.

 

The majority of posters being unduly optimistic when the models show the most benign weather possible for the next 2 weeks (and similarly being unduly pessimistic when the cold actually does come).

 

I think everyone should at some point should read through the model topics of the truly uneventful winter periods (like first half of 2011/2012 or 2007/2008 etc) and learn something from hindsight. Not every winter has to be a special one.

Indeed...This'll be the 51st year of waiting.

 

Every December, it seems, folks are rather too eager (with varying degrees of sophistication) to shoehorn anticyclones into 'desirable' locations...But surely, when dealing with anything chaotic, the list of 'if thens' just gets too long and/or convoluted to make sense??

 

I'm sure I could post a bunch of charts from 1962, and then claim that it shows how things 'could' evolve this time...But, in truth, it wouldn't do that at all, IMO; it would merely show what did happen, precisely once.  

Edited December 3, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Tony27]

it would usually be quiet in the mod thread when the models are as rubbish as they are now, but some madly over optimistic people assume that bland high pressure over us for the foreseeable will end up giving us raging easterlies in time as the high will move north, but in summer they don't assume that will happen and assume that the high will migrate east and draw up some warm southerly winds, but why don't they think we will get warm southerly winds in winter? cos they don't want that to happen,  i never hear talk of scandi blocks and easterlies in summer, cos they don't want that to happen of course

Edited December 3, 2013 by Tony27

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

These high pressure setups are more than welcome. I'm a patient man and am biding my time waiting for the snow. 3 months til spring.

[Methuselah]

And I forgot to ask the obvious question: has anyone ever fed 1962's data into a major model and seen what happens?

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Our weather is tame in comparison to continental climates.  Check out the 5 day forecast for Fort Worth in Texas, US.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fort-worth-tx/76104/daily-weather-forecast/351196

 

They go from what is a very warm day by their standards for early Dec with a high of 25C on Weds to 0C by Friday.  The next day it tops out at -3C with snow!

Edited December 3, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Strider]

And I forgot to ask the obvious question: has anyone ever fed 1962's data into a major model and seen what happens?

 

That's a really interesting question but I wonder if they even kept that kind of data back then?

[Tony27]

Our weather is tame in comparison to continental climates.  Check out the 5 day forecast for Fort Worth in Texas, US.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fort-worth-tx/76104/daily-weather-forecast/351196

 

They go from what is a very warm day by their standards for early Dec with a high of 25C on Weds to 0C by Friday.  The next day it tops out at -3C with snow!

in Oklahoma it will be -4c by day on friday and -10 by night, tomorrow it will be 17c, Oklahoma is on the same latitude as Gibraltar, my location is too far south for cold sometimes and i am a hell of a lot further north than gibraltar and oklahoma, but i guess when you are surrounded by warmish sea you pay the price

Edited December 3, 2013 by Tony27

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM mean oh man, if it were July, we would be starring down the barrel of a heatwave as extreme as August 2003 or July 2006, winds sourced from deep in the Sahara desert.

Makes the output so bad it's utterly hilarious  

[Tony27]

the ECM is total perfection for GAZ and Gavin tonight

 

could we be seeing this sight very soon

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the ECM is total perfection for GAZ and Gavin tonight

 

could we be seeing this sight very soon

 

 

No way will that ECM FI be sunny! looks to be cloudy at around 10C

[conor123]

Wow thought the downgrades were done with for Thursday/Friday but noooo another 50+ miles shift north east, the -5 isotherm barely reaches us now and now probably not even a cold day!!!! unbelievable. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wow thought the downgrades were done with for Thursday/Friday but noooo another 50+ miles shift north east, the -5 isotherm barely reaches us now and now probably not even a cold day!!!! unbelievable. 

 

average day showing now for west, around 5C and rain, for friday, turns drier after

[Tony27]

how a "weather enthusiast" can enjoy the current synoptics being churned out in december is just mind boggling, but of course we have about 4 months for snow so time is not an issue so i hear

 

gets to mid February and we finally see some good charts, this is what i expect to be reading "if only these good synoptics came in december the sun is too strong now" moan moan moan

 

anyway there is still plenty of time til xmas so even if it is 11-15c for the next two weeks and then it turns cold and snowy xmas week i will be very happy but that is not a guarantee so there is not much to be positive about right now 

Edited December 3, 2013 by Tony27

[syed2878]

as usial some folks looked at the model that showed the best wintery charts and ramped it up and when it fell at the last minute folks start going off on 1. This is the second cold spell the ecmf showed in the last 2-3weeks and at the last min it fell on it's weeble. The only reason folks fiel hacked off about the northerly is because this is only good for folks north england northward. It's the second cold spel the gfs didn't buy into and it did get it right. I must say we here in the u.k have a boring climate.

[cheese]

I'm going to sell my house and move to Sweden. No joke. In fact, I'll abandon my house and leave immediately. I don't care.

Edited December 4, 2013 by cheese

[Tim Bland]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Wake me up in January

[Purga]

Says it all really

 

But it might be cold at the surface?

 

Edited December 4, 2013 by Purga

[garbagebags]

But it might be cold at the surface?

 

It sure might feel cold.....If your on holiday from Dubai!

[SnowObsessor90]

I's funny how I was absolutely ridiculed a couple of days back for suggesting that a period of dull non eventful weather followed by an eventual return of the  Atlantic could be a possibility, based on all output we've seen since I'd say that was pretty fair shout.

[cobbett]

I's funny how I was absolutely ridiculed a couple of days back for suggesting that a period of dull non eventful weather followed by an eventual return of the  Atlantic could be a possibility, based on all output we've seen since I'd say that was pretty fair shout.

It's been dull and uneventful for what seems like weeks down here - praying for something to cling onto on the 18z run but expect more of the same as you say zzz