Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Tony27]

first time i have looked at the mod thread since last night and there are 28 pages to catch up on about a half baked northerly toppler absolutely ridiculous, the GFS 18z is a horror show from next weekend onwards just have to hope it don't come off 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Tony27

[cheese]

I think people are expecting far too much - a 48-hour period of cold with snow would be a fairly typical spell of weather for the time of year, and I've yet to have any snow that has settled on the ground properly (saw a dusting in Leeds), so I'll take whatever is on offer for the time being. We have 4 months of potentially amazing winter weather, and yet people seem insistent on writing off the rest of December based on what might happen over the next week. Bonkers.

[Frosty.]

Don't understand the downbeat mood, we are on the cusp of our first arctic blast of the winter and further into the month we could be looking at a cold blocked pattern, chin up peeps :-)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think people are expecting far too much - a 48-hour period of cold with snow would be a fairly typical spell of weather for the time of year, and I've yet to have any snow that has settled on the ground properly (saw a dusting in Leeds), so I'll take whatever is on offer for the time being. We have 4 months of potentially amazing winter weather, and yet people seem insistent on writing off the rest of December based on what might happen over the next week. Bonkers.

 

But Dec is the wettest and most westerly month of the year, so average conditions would be wind, rain and mildish, but this year looking better, GFS is nearer I think than the other 2 models, GFS 00Z isn't bad it looks dry, well into FI as well, only 1 wet day, thurs 5th, very unusual for the wettest month of the year

[TSNWK]

Well there you have it. GFS was never convinced really, yes it toyed with the idea of amplication but never really liked it. Met office has flipped overnight and we are basically back to square one with the high.GFS ensembles I think the cold runs are started to drop out. Mild options are bunched tightly the remaining cold ones are more scattered.ECM on its way. In a funny sort of way I'm kinda of hoping it will join the other big 2 this morning by easing the northerly and stop the teezing with the scandi height rises, be done with this episode and move on, it's only the start of December.

Naughty ECM - Teezing again this morning, just like a D Cup Blonde in a bar. Tut tut.. Lets see.

[Gael_Force]

Oh my word!!

 

 

Those 1962 beauties just keep appearing.......

 

 

 

[cheese]

I've always been of the opinion that January and February are firmly the core winter months, so I'm not really bothered if December turned out to be the mildest on record - the proper cold and snow doesn't usually arrive until after New Year, if it does at all (this is the UK, after all, not Finland - we should take everything we can!).

 

Anyway, I see 'shedhead' and 'i'm dreaming of..' are in their natural element at this moment in time! No doubt Ian Brown will be along soon as the icing on top of a very foul-tasting cake.

Edited December 2, 2013 by cheese

[snowangel32]

Can't believe the ecm fooled me again not going to trust its models anymore it always seems to over amplify and has a westwards bias then when it gets near the time it collapses and we all look stupid and as cheese said then the wind ups start.

[snow freak]

With talk of this December now possibly having near record breaking temperatures i give up with the prospect of any decent winter cold in this country.  With all the talk earlier about this winter being cold and possibly one of the coldest in decades should have prompted me to think exactly the opposite would actually happen.  I wouldn't mind betting that we don't get the real cold stuff until March or April when it is too late for any snow to really make an impact before melting rapidly.  Really disappointed to say the least.

[cheese]

With talk of this December now possibly having near record breaking temperatures i give up with the prospect of any decent winter cold in this country.  With all the talk earlier about this winter being cold and possibly one of the coldest in decades should have prompted me to think exactly the opposite would actually happen.  I wouldn't mind betting that we don't get the real cold stuff until March or April when it is too late for any snow to really make an impact before melting rapidly.  Really disappointed to say the least.

Folkestone, March 2013:

 

 

This fallacy of 'the sun is too strong in March for snow' needs to stop, immediately. Ditto for February, and writing off the entire winter because December probably won't be very cold (quelle surprise) is incredibly silly. I really have no idea where people get these silly ideas from.

 

Also, potentially an ice day on Friday for some with a rain-to-snow event - seems like a decent start to the winter. We had no settling snow here in December last year.

Edited December 2, 2013 by cheese

[Tony27]

you do realise that what happened in march this year is a very rare event don't you, usually if we get snow in march it turns to a slushy mess by lunchtime esp in the south, i didn't see a single flake of snow in march this year, i know snow in december is not that common but i'd rather have snow in dec than in march any day, i stop looking for snow in march as it is just annoying and pointless 9 time out of 10, the snowy season is a very short season so we need to make the most of it and not say there is still plenty of time if good synoptics get downgraded in december cos before we know it's January then it's feb 

 

people like Gaz and Gavin don't realise how lucky they are as warm sunny weather is possible from march till late october and they are happy if we get any sort of warm spell, it don't need to be 30c for them to enjoy it, there are about 8 months of the year we can have potential warmth, but the chances of proper snow in the south is just for a mere 3 months of the year usually 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Tony27

[jimben]

Nice one - we always looked at the forecast and if it was $h it we went out because no one else was there - bonkers but life was cheap then and you had to find your way off the hill yourself.

 

Did/do exactly the same myself and never got close to calling for MRT, here's hoping for a winter to remember in the hills

[snowblizzard]

Unfortunately, this winter will not be the same as the last 4 years! The general NH pattern and jet profile look significantly different at this stage. So, I believe the UK will be on the wrong side of the dividing line between cold & milder air masses for much of the winter and therefore it's more likely that temperatures will be above average for much of the time and wintry precipitation will be in very short supply particularly over the Southern half of the country. As for the models, surely it's a waste of time looking at anything beyond +96 hours because they rarely verify! I'm really surprised that so many people (including some very knowledgeable contributors) on here get so exited and sucked-in when 'stellar' charts showing deep cold and potentially snowy conditions appear in FI because they rarely come to fruition. Rant over!

 

PS. I really hope I'm wrong!

Edited December 2, 2013 by snowblizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Going with GFS here, I am expecting weak northerly Friday, then turning mildish and dry, for week starting 9th,

 

ECMWF will start to trend towards GFS in FI in future runs, ECMWF to me sometimes comes across as a fantasy model, as though its plotted by Vogan or Madden

[snowbob]

This time last year......

Most people know the rest.

Can it happen to us again ?

Of course it can.or will we be lucky this time.

Either way it's great fun watching and waiting

Bring on the hunt for the easterly,winter 2013/14

Edited December 2, 2013 by snowbob

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This may sound crazy, but I think we are on the cusp of something that may turn out similar to 1962/63. I reckon that around christmas will be the turning point and massive Northern blocking will establish itself at first over Scandi and linger around Iceland and ridge into Greenland too. It probably won't be enough to 'rival' 62/63, but I definitely think that something is on the cards. The trend is to definitely perk up the heights towards the NE, and for the polar vortex to be placed over N America, which will amplify the heights towards Greenland and the arctic. Some may dispute me now, but I'd appreciate a little patience through December, then we will see how things pan out. We shall see.

[Bristawl Si]

Unfortunately, this winter will not be the same as the last 4 years! The general NH pattern and jet profile look significantly different at this stage. So, I believe the UK will be on the wrong side of the dividing line between cold & milder air masses for much of the winter and therefore it's more likely that temperatures will be above average for much of the time and wintry precipitation will be in very short supply particularly over the Southern half of the country. As for the models, surely it's a waste of time looking at anything beyond +96 hours because they rarely verify! I'm really surprised that so many people (including some very knowledgeable contributors) on here get so exited and sucked-in when 'stellar' charts showing deep cold and potentially snowy conditions appear in FI because they rarely come to fruition. Rant over! PS. I really hope I'm wrong!

Have to say i agree.Having been mainly a weather model 'watcher' and reader on here for a number of years the models frequently call it wrong or chop & change over a period of a week or so.Sometimes i take little notice until T72, esp in Winter.Many industries use modelling tools to measure or predict the future, whether it be financial or market activity. One certainly wouldnt recommend the various global weather modelling tools! They chop and change far too much.I'm not sure if i'm being unfair but they dont seem any more accurate than they were 20 or 30 years ago.

[cheese]

you do realise that what happened in march this year is a very rare event don't you

I wouldn't say very rare, but yes, I realise how unusual it was, but it shows the potential is there, and even though no recent March snowfalls have rivaled 2013, we've had some decent ones, such as 2008 and 2006. Also, April 2008 and April 2012 all provided decent snow to different areas, even the urban heat island known as London.

 

Also, it doesn't need to be bitterly cold at the surface for good snow, as last winter proved quite nicely (January was only slightly below average but gave many areas lots of snow)

Edited December 2, 2013 by cheese

[swfc]

This may sound crazy, but I think we are on the cusp of something that may turn out similar to 1962/63. I reckon that around christmas will be the turning point and massive Northern blocking will establish itself at first over Scandi and linger around Iceland and ridge into Greenland too. It probably won't be enough to 'rival' 62/63, but I definitely think that something is on the cards. The trend is to definitely perk up the heights towards the NE, and for the polar vortex to be placed over N America, which will amplify the heights towards Greenland and the arctic. Some may dispute me now, but I'd appreciate a little patience through December, then we will see how things pan out. We shall see.

You may be correct but believe me you woudnt want a winter anything like 62-63 trust me!!

[bobbydog]

This may sound crazy, but I think we are on the cusp of something that may turn out similar to 1962/63. I reckon that around christmas will be the turning point and massive Northern blocking will establish itself at first over Scandi and linger around Iceland and ridge into Greenland too. It probably won't be enough to 'rival' 62/63, but I definitely think that something is on the cards. The trend is to definitely perk up the heights towards the NE, and for the polar vortex to be placed over N America, which will amplify the heights towards Greenland and the arctic. Some may dispute me now, but I'd appreciate a little patience through December, then we will see how things pan out. We shall see.

 

i don't think it sounds crazy. i've been looking at the archives for 1962 and although not identical, there are uncanny similarities. that's not to say it's likely but that winter came from similar weather patterns to those we are experiencing now. the point is, it can and has, come out of seemingly nowhere.

 

i think that snowy northerlies (however brief) and the models toying with the idea of a scandi high, along with a vortex which is under constant attack (not raging as some would claim) at this early stage of winter, is cause for celebration, not the despondent whinging which seems to be dominating the MOD thread lately

[cheese]

You may be correct but believe me you woudnt want a winter anything like 62-63 trust me!!

Trust me, I would. There would be utter chaos, but that's a price worth paying. I've experienced winters worse than anything the UK can offer anyway so I would be well prepared (most Brits are weather wimps), and I'd go out of my way to help anyone who needs it.

Edited December 2, 2013 by cheese

[Mark Neal.]

Well we may get a SE flow down the line, at least continental... Better than zonal dross IMO... Just my opinion. Think come mid December we could see cold pool from E Europe head out way...

[cheese]

Oh good grief, no easterlies please. Give me a NEly - they're much better, usually snowier as well as sunnier, at least here. Easterlies often end up dry, chilly, but not very cold and overcast.

Edited December 2, 2013 by cheese

[UV-RAY]

Oh gawd not another Scandinavian Easterly on it's way, they've brought nothing but cold rain here since 95. I understand why they are popular on here as most of Net Weathers members are from the South, but those of us on the Western side rarely see anything from such a set up besides cloudy skies and cold rain. Here's to the models barking up the wrong tree!

[shedhead]

The ECM has gone from this :

 

 

To this....in the space of 3 days.

 

 

There has been a very significant downgrade in terms of the severity, potential snowfall, longevity and extent of area at risk.

OK, but apart from that it's been spot on.....