Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm using my mystical powers that can foretell future events as I'm always right aren't I, aren't I.Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Yes Yuri!Posted Image 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't post in here often, perhaps I should but I sometimes feel like saying 'I told you so' when wintry charts at 10-14 days out get watered down but that would come across as arrogant and cavalierish and I don't want to appear that way as I am often proved wrong myself as much as the next guy and certainly not afraid to admit. However, on this occasion I have never seen anything other than a short sharp cold snap and probably not even that. The reason, the Jet profile is all wrong for anything other than transitory cold over the UK for the next week or two as it remains strong and too far North and dare I say it looking even less likely in a few weeks as it looks like blowing NE strongly over the UK meaning High pressure is then likely to develop to the SE. While I appreciate what's happening at the pole and Canada can have a bearing on our UK weather outcomes it is only a small factor and it normally comes to pass that what's happening to the South and SW of the UK, (which no-one seems to want to mention)  is what transpires as, let's face it living in the UK this is the prevailing direction for weather to want to come from. Despite what many people might think that read my reports I love the cold and snow as much any of the cold rampers but have been on this Earth long enough to be a realist in the knowledge that a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen on a wide scale over the UK and that sadly and in all honesty doesn't look like happening anytime soon. Rant over.

Hmmm Bath is a VERY poor place to love if you like cold and snow .

Regarding comments about a short cold snap not even that i suspect those in scotland may beg to differ.i think you rlocation must play a part in your thoughts at times..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

I don't post in here often, perhaps I should but I sometimes feel like saying 'I told you so' when wintry charts at 10-14 days out get watered down but that would come across as arrogant and cavalierish and I don't want to appear that way as I am often proved wrong myself as much as the next guy and certainly not afraid to admit. However, on this occasion I have never seen anything other than a short sharp cold snap and probably not even that. The reason, the Jet profile is all wrong for anything other than transitory cold over the UK for the next week or two as it remains strong and too far North and dare I say it looking even less likely in a few weeks as it looks like blowing NE strongly over the UK meaning High pressure is then likely to develop to the SE. While I appreciate what's happening at the pole and Canada can have a bearing on our UK weather outcomes it is only a small factor and it normally comes to pass that what's happening to the South and SW of the UK, (which no-one seems to want to mention)  is what transpires as, let's face it living in the UK this is the prevailing direction for weather to want to come from. Despite what many people might think that read my reports I love the cold and snow as much any of the cold rampers but have been on this Earth long enough to be a realist in the knowledge that a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen on a wide scale over the UK and that sadly and in all honesty doesn't look like happening anytime soon. Rant over.

Although you may be right don't you think its a bit early to be crowing about it Gibby? This cold spell is still a few day's away, plenty of time for a lot of people to end up with egg on their face. Don't be one of them.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Although you may be right don't you think its a bit early to be crowing about it Gibby? This cold spell is still a few day's away, plenty of time for a lot of people to end up with egg on their face. Don't be one of them.

Indeed, although I don't think Gibby was crowing, but the fact remains this projected cold snap could easily upgrade to a cold spell.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Hmmm Bath is a VERY poor place to love if you like cold and snow .

Regarding comments about a short cold snap not even that i suspect those in scotland may beg to differ.i think you rlocation must play a part in your thoughts at times..

 

No my thoughts were totally based on the UK as a whole. Don't assume that everyone who posts on this forum is biased to any weather type or location because I certainly am not one.

Edited by Gibby
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Indeed, although I don't think Gibby was crowing, but the fact remains this projected cold snap could easily upgrade to a cold spell.

 Or could get downgraded to something insignificant ,but i think a brief cold snap is the most likely at this stage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl

One of the most telling remarks in recent hours and days and one that should be borne in mind above all others come from Gibby and the direction of the jet stream. The charts can be as wintry as you like, upstream, downstream and over the back of Bill's mother weather patterns can show what they like but it is not going to happen unless the jet stream is favourable. At present this is showing no inclination to do so. I have always understood that it is the jet stream that drives weather systems. Clearly other factors may contribute but certainly not to the extent as the jet stream and gulf stream.

 

For climbers the positioning and movement/forecast of the jet stream over mountainous areas such as the himalaya is critical.

 

I have always looked to our south west, the prevailing direction for our weather and the positioning of jet stream saves a lot of heartache and hopecasting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

Slightly confused by one or two posts, as I understand it, any arctic blast (as described in the beeb forecast), is still 5/6 days away, even they don't know what happens beyond that. Not only that, I was under the impression that the jet stream is also modeled, so it's forecast position on x date could well be different tomorrow to what it is today, and even then any forecast can be wrong.

 

I've also been climbing/mountaineering many places, but never once looked at a jetstream forecast before setting out...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny
  • Location: West Sussex

And when their 'forecasts' go pear-shaped, they blame the models rather than the weather. How perverse?Posted Image 

Yes, very true! I must admit the comments that bug me are those which use phrases such as "downgrade", "upgrade,", or worse, "what we need to happen is...."! Why on earth can't they simply say that one model looks "colder/milder/warmer" than another rather than compare it yo what they want to see?

I will say that some of the incessant sucking up to some of the comments does make me chuckle though.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

The model thread to me is like those horror films where you know something is going to jump out but you still got to have a peep through the cracks of your fingers.

I post on 3 weather sites, TWO, UKWeatherworld and here and I find the model thread on this site, the worst by a mile in winter. Quality analysis is lost amongst the dross and there is plenty of it I'm afraid.

Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny
  • Location: West Sussex

The model thread to me is like those horror films to me, where you know something is going to jump out but you still got to have a peep through the cracks of your fingers.I post on 3 weather sites, TWO, UKWeatherworld and here and I find the model thread on this site, the worst by a mile in winter. Quality analysis is lost amongst the dross and there is plenty of it I'm afraid.

That's very interesting! But yes, it is rather 'car crash' viewing most of the time at this time of year! 'Obi Wan' and his young Jedi seem to be ganging up together at the moment in order to knock down someone who dares to question their opinion! No idea what they're talking about, but it's taken up most of two pages!
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl

..... I have also been climbing/mountaineering many places, but never once looked at a jetstream forecast before setting out...

 

Haha, an older climber once advised me that if I wanted to know the local mountain weather then "look up", however I doubt even he would do that in the region I specified with today's advances, many still of course do and pay a heavy price.

 

Of course the jet stream is modelled I was just expressing my preferred indicators when the viewing the models.

 

All the best

Edited by jimben
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

12z is why you won't find me ramping this spell up yet, these 'northerlies' always end up missing us and going into Europe in the end!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Fascinating tustles going on with the models - i'm no expert, in fact far from it, but it probably means a number of solutions are possible.

one thing i've noticed is that mainland Europe and into Scandi and Russia are slowly going into Winter proper.

Once that deep cold builds over there anything can happen on these shores.

Wouldnt surprise me if the UK catches a real cold after Christmas.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

12z is why you won't find me ramping this spell up yet, these 'northerlies' always end up missing us and going into Europe in the end!

 

in a way though it better than was showing before, was showing a northerly then mild and wet after, now the trend tends to be cold and dry, maybe like a early Jan 2002 setup, snowless but cold

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

The model thread to me is like those horror films where you know something is going to jump out but you still got to have a peep through the cracks of your fingers.I post on 3 weather sites, TWO, UKWeatherworld and here and I find the model thread on this site, the worst by a mile in winter. Quality analysis is lost amongst the dross and there is plenty of it I'm afraid.

 

This is where you need to block everyone apart from the dozen or so that make the thread worthwhile. That's what I do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

I think it's a brave person who forecasts anything with any confidence for this weekend, let alone beyond from a from run to run, across the models and between the ensemble suites there's such a range of possible solutions being shown. It's probably one of the most used phrases in here over the years, but it's a good one - more runs are needed...

Sorry to roll out the old chestnut of criticism of the much acclaimed "Winter 2013" forecast by NW TWO or Meto or whoever - but it is just that - so odd and contradictory at times so why do we dismiss so much in the short term for near reliable decent possibly accurate charts to have a "you must read this" long range prediction shoved in our faces?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Haha, an older climber once advised me that if I wanted to know the local mountain weather then "look up", however I doubt even he would do that in the region I specified with today's advances, many still of course do and pay a heavy price.

 

Of course the jet stream is modelled I was just expressing my preferred indicators when the viewing the models.

 

All the best

Nice one - we always looked at the forecast and if it was $h it we went out because no one else was there - bonkers but life was cheap then and you had to find your way off the hill yourself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Sorry to roll out the old chestnut of criticism of the much acclaimed "Winter 2013" forecast by NW TWO or Meto or whoever - but it is just that - so odd and contradictory at times so why do we dismiss so much in the short term for near reliable decent possibly accurate charts to have a "you must read this" long range prediction shoved in our faces?

 

It's not model discussion, but to answer your question - there's a big difference between looking for trends at long range and trying to pinpoint specific weather events/outcomes at shorter range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

It's interesting how the attitudes are massively different in the MOD thread in winter than they are in summer. In summer you have maybe one or two positive posters in there who remain optimistic about the chances of warm/hot weather virtually all the time, while the majority err on the side of caution and a good number are rather pessimistic about the prospects of hot spells, even when they are almost nailed on. 

 

In winter it's much more fanatical and chaotic, there is a lot more ramping (which is sometimes childish) and a lot of posters refuse to believe what is staring them in the face, unless it's a cold chart, in which case a repeat of December 2010 is surely on the cards! If you dare to go in there and suggest that a cold spell might not last or that it will be a brief affair (as the upcoming one always appeared to be), you are often shot down and ridiculed, as has happened with Gibby despite his very sensible, knowledgeable and informative posts, which have ultimately proved to be correct despite many cold fans suggesting he always plays down the prospect of cold. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

They say you can smell snow when it's on the way..I smell snow and lots of it across the north and east. Having looked at all the mods today, I really cannot see any way back for mild weather this side of crimbo. Zonality..no chance, cold and increasingly blocked more like it. :-)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

It's interesting how the attitudes are massively different in the MOD thread in winter than they are in summer. In summer you have maybe one or two positive posters in there who remain optimistic about the chances of warm/hot weather virtually all the time, while the majority err on the side of caution and a good number are rather pessimistic about the prospects of hot spells, even when they are almost nailed on.  In winter it's much more fanatical and chaotic, there is a lot more ramping (which is sometimes childish) and a lot of posters refuse to believe what is staring them in the face, unless it's a cold chart, in which case a repeat of December 2010 is surely on the cards! If you dare to go in there and suggest that a cold spell might not last or that it will be a brief affair (as the upcoming one always appeared to be), you are often shot down and ridiculed, as has happened with Gibby despite his very sensible, knowledgeable and informative posts, which have ultimately proved to be correct despite many cold fans suggesting he always plays down the prospect of cold.

Don't think anyone can be proved right or wrong yet, it hasn't happened. What happens beyond Fri/Sat appears to be very much up for grabs at the moment...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...