Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Bradowl]

Can't believe that we're now looking unlikely to see a good dumping of Snow next week.

 

That's it for me, winter done and dusted roll on warm spring sunshine, it's only around corner.  

[cheese]

Cold spell is back on since the GFS says yes.

[tight isobar]

Intresting perception thus far..18z.

[Jax]

is this forum really going into meltdown coz we may have some snow on a far away hill and sleet in the valley far north and near it?

[stainesbloke]

Yay, no cold rain and sleet next week! More likely to be sunny by day with frost/fog at night. What's wrong with that?

[joggs]

Also,this wk or so in my eyes has confirmed not to rely on the strat thread v the mod output thread!, people who understand 1 or both of the happs,good luck because of the posts ive read over the last week+or so,alot have contradicted themselves and itr just plain frustrating.Tbh,with all the hardwork that goes on with members in the strat thread(which i appreciate),has in the last couple of wks dented my confidence in their way of thinking(calling zonal and not expecting this last few days develop etc).Nobody knows whats about to hap even the meto after a wk or so?.Best you can do as a newbie is stick to the meto further outlooks,get used to the model outputs and for/against cold members of the forum and then dont take the strat workins and model output as gopel.Rant over,we live in CHANGING times.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Seems like its just one day of cold, Tues 19th, turns much milder all areas on Wednesday through to rest of week, after that is FI

 

to me its just a northerly toppler

[UV-RAY]

Seems like its just one day of cold, Tues 19th, turns much milder all areas on Wednesday through to rest of week, after that is FI

 

to me its just a northerly toppler

Is your computer broke because for the life in me I see the complete opposite, maybe it's mine then.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Latest meto temp for my location on wed is 3c so no certainly not just 1 day of cold. The latest ecm and ukmo doesn't show milder air flooding back in. Makes me wonder what data you are looking at.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly seems to get milder from the west on GFS and ECMWF, for the south anyway, and thursday looks milder with rain? hope you are right though

 

where do I get a mild/wet wed/thur from? hopefully nowhere

[John Badrick]

Seems like its just one day of cold, Tues 19th, turns much milder all areas on Wednesday through to rest of week, after that is FI to me its just a northerly toppler

I don't think so...what charts are you looking at? Are you sure you are looking at the right date because the charts I'm looking at look like the complete opposite

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wed to me looks like mild westerlies on GFS and ECMWF, uppers even slightly above 0 on thursday in the west, -1 to -2 uppers elsewhere, which will surely produce rain showers in the south

 

GFS meteociel 102 TO 156

Edited November 16, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[AWD]

These are the forecast 850hpa temps for Cardiff (ie a western settlement):

Nothing, for mid-late November, that I would call mild there. Snowfall for Central and Southern England was always unlikely (away from the most elevated of areas) so the lack of white stuff is to be expected. Realistically it's a little too early in the season for meaningful snowfall for England & Wales.

There will be plenty of opportunities for frosty, foggy weather though with crisp, cold days. I don't see double figure temperatures for most of us for a long time now. Therefore nothing mild, cold then relaxing to chilly with plenty of wintry weather outside of snowfall.

[Bobby]

Also,this wk or so in my eyes has confirmed not to rely on the strat thread v the mod output thread!, people who understand 1 or both of the happs,good luck because of the posts ive read over the last week+or so,alot have contradicted themselves and itr just plain frustrating.Tbh,with all the hardwork that goes on with members in the strat thread(which i appreciate),has in the last couple of wks dented my confidence in their way of thinking(calling zonal and not expecting this last few days develop etc).Nobody knows whats about to hap even the meto after a wk or so?.Best you can do as a newbie is stick to the meto further outlooks,get used to the model outputs and for/against cold members of the forum and then dont take the strat workins and model output as gopel.Rant over,we live in CHANGING times.

 

True, I've found the huge interest with stratosphere a bit hard to understand as well. Can get severe prolonged cold and snowy spells with a cold stratosphere and mild wet Bartletts and Euro highs with a big SSW. A warm stratosphere probably helps but is just one small ingredient of many that we need for a cold spell.

[tinybill]

Is your computer broke because for the life in me I see the complete opposite, maybe it's mine then.well

well to me the models  look better  then they did  this  morning ,i was expecting  a  lot  of wrist cutting  with the  pub  run!!

[Gaz1985]

Seems like its just one day of cold, Tues 19th, turns much milder all areas on Wednesday through to rest of week, after that is FI

 

to me its just a northerly toppler

 

Yes seems like another hyped up weather event away from Scotland - even the snow on Tuesday evening might turn to rain on Wednesday morning so I guess that cannot mean proper cold 

Edited November 16, 2013 by Gaz1985

[cheese]

Seems like its just one day of cold, Tues 19th, turns much milder all areas on Wednesday through to rest of week, after that is FI

 

to me its just a northerly toppler

Nope. The Met Office forecast show a high of 4C here on Tuesday and 3C on Wednesday, and considering how conservative the Met forecasts usually are in this aspect, I am almost certain it will be at least a degree lower than that. If any precipitation is around these parts on Tuesday then I am positive some snow will fall - but it's the lack of precip, according to GFS, that might be an issue. We'll see. Certainly cold whichever way you cut it - which is excellent for everyone. I'll settle for cold, frosty and maybe foggy if no snow is falls.

Edited November 16, 2013 by cheese

[Tony27]

blimey, cold, frosty, foggy weather in mid to late november who'd have thought it? yes the ECM looks good synoptically so i guess that's why we are seeing all this ramping, but i remember it being 3c for a couple of days in november 2004 when apparently we always had mild mush in those days, 

[cheese]

Considering some November's pass by with barely a frost worth mentioning, let alone a single flake of snow, I'm content with the output. In reality it isn't unusual for late November to get a cool spell - and many November's in the past have produced noteworthy snow, obviously 2010 and 2008 stand out here, as well as 2005.

[pip22]

Don't be too Disappointing. We got another day, maybe even a few days to upgrade to full-on snow event next week, it just need a miracle. Fingers crossed.

 

Snow IS difficult to forecast. Its a fact!!

 

I not giving up. I will fight for cold!!

Edited November 16, 2013 by pip22

[UV-RAY]

Yes seems like another hyped up weather event away from Scotland - even the snow on Tuesday evening might turn to rain on Wednesday morning so I guess that cannot mean proper cold 

And we are a million miles away from anything average let alone mild and long may it continue.

[towbar0]

I can remember many Novembers with snow. Just right for the festive season. Also remember mild Christmas days following. But not in the last 4/5 years

[Bristawl Si]

Looks like a boring 10 days or so coming up, weatherwise.

The kind of weather that is cold but dry, dull and means the heating still has to be on.

[Rammie]

So in summary.... Next Wednesday is going to be one, possibly two, degrees cooler than it was about ten days before that.

[stainesbloke]

blimey, cold, frosty, foggy weather in mid to late november who'd have thought it? yes the ECM looks good synoptically so i guess that's why we are seeing all this ramping, but i remember it being 3c for a couple of days in november 2004 when apparently we always had mild mush in those days,

Hehe, your posts often make me chuckle Indeed, from all the ramping on the mod thread one would think snowmaggedon is on the way, not a few days of normal November chilly weather. Suppose that's what happens when you let a load of jobless teenagers and young 20-somethings with over active imaginations loose Temps of 3 or 4 degrees may be enough for snow to fall briefly but it won't settle, or melt as soon as it's fallen. Where's the fun in that? Gimme a raging Siberian easterly with daytime temps of -5! In Jan preferably.