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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps


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As soon as good charts start showing, so inevitably the scorn and disdain follows in earnest. It's just a toppler; the 850 temps aren't good enough; there's no cold air to tap into; it won't snow; we need these synoptics in Jan/Feb not now, etc.  The fact is that the current output is an order of magnitude greater than it was at the start of the month and the amplification we are seeing despite an unfavourable Strat profile is remarkable. Can't we just enjoy that for the moment?

 

Nobody is predicting a snowfest and there is no synoptics quota that we are using up too soon. No-one knows what winter proper will bring.

Edited by Yarmy
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Models still looking good for a cold spell next week :-).

Some disappointment creeping into the mod thread from some of our fellow human beings.

 

IMO though this is a good upcoming cold spell considering it is only MID NOVEMBER.

 

If you go looking for DEC 2010 scenarios every model run then 99 times out of 100 you will be left disappointed.

 

Bring on the cold days and night time frosts and fingers crossed might even see some snow :-)

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Loving the progged synoptics from Monday onwards. A shame they don't continue into December but I'm not convinced an evolution like this is just a blip and that the December will just be zonal mush. 

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I don't often post in here but the model thread gets dafter and more selfish each year come the start of the 'winter' period.

Most data from Fax charts to MJO and all in between have fairly convincing evidence that a cold spell will develop from Sunday onwards, starting in the far north and reaching all parts by Tuesday. How much snow, if any, how cold etc will not be known for a few days.

So

It can’t last, won’t last etc etc. yah boo, not fair, too cold/too hot, not enough snow, I never get storms etc etc. A good many are like spoilt little children. I really do wonder what they are like in real life. How do they react when the boss tells them off, the wife/husband say sorry not tonight dear?

Feel better for that, best go and see what the real weather seems to be suggesting then have another look in the children’s playground we have for adults called the model thread.

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But then we have;"@_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"from Chris Fawkes, so perhaps a large spread of uncertainty in the longer term for now?

 

Well that should put an end to all these 2010 references I keep seeing in the MOD thread, a snap is the best way to describe it

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Well that should put an end to all these 2010 references I keep seeing in the MOD thread, a snap is the best way to describe it

He's as much idea as the rest of us as it's nearly two weeks of cold which by my reckoning makes it a cold spell, not snap.

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Well that should put an end to all these 2010 references I keep seeing in the MOD thread, a snap is the best way to describe it

It might be a cold snap SS, but temperatures will stay below average. So nothing mild which keeps being refered to in MO thread after next week.

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It might be a cold snap SS, but temperatures will stay below average. So nothing mild which keeps being refered to in MO thread after next week.

 

Yeah, met office updates today suggest high pressure will be north of the UK for the next few weeks keeping the north and west drier, there are signs of a slight recovery nearer to normal temperatures by the middle of December.

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Another day and another melodramatic moment in the model thread, some people never ever learn and hang onto one model run as if that will suddenly defy all other model runs and the MetO's extended outlooks, and what makes it worse is it's the GFS.Posted Image

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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After last  winter i dont really bother looking at the GFS much anymore ,it used to be my first port of call when viewing the models especially cos it has 4 runs per day. But for my sanity i really just stick to the ECM and UKMO now,better off.

 

When it comes to possible snowfall i think its always better to wait  for the cold to arrive first and then see what happens,again helps the sanity somewhat.

 

Whatever next week brings im just happy to get some sort of cold snap or spell its only Nov, i will be happy with a few air frosts  and bright sunny fresh days,any snow (which atm anyway i honestly doubt i will get) would be a big bonus but i wont be crying if i dont see any,thats the way i look at it.

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Having read the model thread I see the UKMO is better than and worse than the GFS. It brings the cold in earlier/later and prolongs/shortens the cold. At T144, it's only going one way: good/bad.

 

Oh and Mr Rollercoaster has thrown the towel in for Winter. Again.Posted Image

 

When will we ever get the cold? Oh yeah, on Monday.

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Having read the model thread I see the UKMO is better than and worse than the GFS. It brings the cold in earlier/later and prolongs/shortens the cold. At T144, it's only going one way: good/bad.

 

Oh and Mr Rollercoaster has thrown the towel in for Winter. Again.Posted Image

 

When will we ever get the cold? Oh yeah, on Monday.

Ah, Mr Roller coaster. . Certainly lives up to his name. Sheer Elation to crushing despair from one run to the next.

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I don't see what the all the fuss is with the model output, we all know they struggle with these sort of complicated set ups but yet some seem so confident that the downgrades are set in stone. I'm sorry until the boys at Exeter sing the same tune then it's still game on for now.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Some of tonight models might have been a little bit shocking for prolonged and very wintry potential, but I agree that it is not over yet. I think what sometimes seems to happen when models are latching onto a possible cold spell, is this...

 

One day: downgrades

Next day: upgrades

The day after: downgrades

The day after that: upgrades

 

You may also get periods where some models show a downgraded outlook on a particular day, while some other models during the same day showing upgraded outlooks. As a result, it would not be too surprising if tomorrow, some of the models bring the prolonged cold potential back to life (although it was true is some ways, the GFS 12Z was never all terribly bad for lasting cold potential. The High pressure over the UK, for example, would probably bring some fairly harsh/harsh frost to places, particularly during times of clearer skies at night). I personally feel there is just about enough time for further adjustments for next week to be made anyway (something Tamara suggested in the Model Output thread with their still being enough room for things to develop in regards the weather for the next few days or so), even though it is kind of getting to that period where the models may not make many more changes - at least for the beginning part of next week.

 

I suppose the other aspect that can happen is when cold potential in the models creeps closer and closer to the more reliable time-frames, then their is that trouble of shortwaves developing unexpectedly in unfavorable places and begin to ruin the chances of cold/prolonged cold. But even if that happens, other shortwaves or developing features could help come to the rescue with cold and snowy potential for the cold and snow fans. Or you may even find the shortwaves that did seem like would ruin a cold spell potential just magically disappear on the models. This could be especially true for the GFS, since it does apparently overdo shortwaves and overpower Lows Pressure systems at times.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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How boring would Poirot be if they told you who dunnit in the opening scene ? The ens (moreso ecm) have made the running on this cold spell and I see no reason to start trusting the operationals post day 5/6 now. if they develop some consistency over the weekend then that may change but for the time being - nope.

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