Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[cold snap]

well this morning i think the incoming pattern change is clear to see.

This is my last past this winter ,its been the most exciting long winter model watching ever for me.

Cold snap and out.

[Captain Shortwave]

Wouldn't disagree about the rain bit, however it's no different to many, many people on here jumping up and down with glee at the prospect of grey skies and snow piling down all day. As a previous poster said, if it means an end to this seemingly never ending cold, then I'll put up with wet & windy for a while until some milder dryness appears.

two posts after mine, well lets looks at the bbc forecast for an East coast location, one which you would expects the biggest onslaught of grey skies around the country.

Errrr........... Please call mother nature and tell her she's got the weather wrong

Edited April 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Purga]

two posts after mine, well lets looks at the bbc forecast for an East coast location, one which you would expects the biggest onslaught of grey skies around the country.

Errrr........... Please call mother nature and tell her she's got the weather wrong

Just because you've had 'grey skies and snow piling down all day' CS don't get greedy for more - guess you've had about as much snow as we have in Sussex recently ie ZILCH. LOL Edited April 2, 2013 by Purga

[Bobby]

...

Edited April 2, 2013 by Bobby

[Bobby]

Ooh it looks like a pattern change at last, the end is nigh. I wouldn't be surprised after this prolonged cold, easterly fairly dry period of weather to have a long period of Atlantic dominated weather now. We seem to shift from one prolonged extreme to the other these days don't we? I wonder what the odds are on another washout Spring/Summer, I have a hunch we'll start seeing the deluges start on cue as soon as we near summer, seems to be the way of things lately.

More interesting than this stuff at least from a general weather enthusiasts view, something more dynamic.

[mushymanrob]

love the way the ardent coldies try to put a spoiler on the forthcoming milder weather by suggesting itll mean rain, wind and cloud.... ALL THE TIME? ... no it wont be, itll be changeable and in between any precipitation (some of which could be the much liked showers) itll be nice.

id have 12c in rain anyday.... at least i could work. at least nature could get on with living, birds could nest and feed their young, plants can grow, mamals, amphibians, repties can get on with living, they can feed. this ruinous cold has been very detrimental to our native wildlife. great. http://forum.nwstatic.co.uk//public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.png

coldies... youve had the (worst) coldest march for years, it will go, live with it.

Edited April 2, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Captain Shortwave]

love the way the ardent coldies try to put a spoiler on the forthcoming milder weather by suggesting itll mean rain, wind and cloud.... ALL THE TIME?

I love how mildies take a spell of cold wet weather just because it's slightly warmer than we have now.

Love the reptil argument, I'm ure they would rather take the 8/9 hours of sunshine a day compared to the 1/2 hour intermittent sunshine which would come from say the ECM output, I'm no animal expert but I'm sure they like basking in the sun, a 4 degree difference in temperature is little compared to the sunshine penalty of a westerly set up with low pressure crossing central Britain.

I'm all for mild and warmth, but not for a couple of degree change which carries frequent showers and longer spells of rain day in day out. Unless you like the sound of paddling down a high street

I hope we get into a more favourable set up, but strong winds with these low pressure from experience really reduce the convective potential to just a load of moderate rain showers which last about 2 minutes. Simply put I want anything except the output provided by the ECM

Edited April 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

I've just been outside doing some long delayed tasks and I am fed up having to dress up as an eskimo to do mundane outdoor tasks.

Just checked on my weather diary and since the end of November the number of days with double figures being recorded here seems abysmally low

December=5

January=9

February=8

March=2

none so far in April

oh for a 15C, sunshine and no wind for a few days

[Summer Sun]

I've just been outside doing some long delayed tasks and I am fed up having to dress up as an eskimo to do mundane outdoor tasks.

Just checked on my weather diary and since the end of November the number of days with double figures being recorded here seems abysmally low

December=5

January=9

February=8

March=2

none so far in April

oh for a 15C, sunshine and no wind for a few days

Its even worse for double figure temperatures here in Darlo

December - 4

January - 7

February - 1

March - 1

April - 0 but that will improve

Total days with double figure temperatures since December 1st 2012 - 13

Roll on a warm, sunny, wind free day

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[syed2878]

i would love to c some mild even hot sunny weather. How ever endless rain with mild doesn't flote my boat. Its all good saying peeps saying they would put up with rain, last washout spring and summer did alot mor damage to plant and wild life and of course peoples homes and bisnuses.

[rory o gorman]

well im looking for convection now , so the ecm pattern is fine for me, plenty of WAA on the gfs also .

[UV-RAY]

For all those banking on a warm spring summer, don't look at the CFS, Lol.

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather on the lunchtime news is now showing about milder air pushing in later this weekend not necessarily dry but milder

Almost 10c by Saturday for some with light winds and sunshine

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Methuselah]

For all those banking on a warm spring summer, don't look at the CFS, Lol.

No need to worry, SI. I won't!

[IanR]

I love how mildies take a spell of cold wet weather just because it's slightly warmer than we have now.

Love the reptil argument, I'm ure they would rather take the 8/9 hours of sunshine a day compared to the 1/2 hour intermittent sunshine which would come from say the ECM output, I'm no animal expert but I'm sure they like basking in the sun, a 4 degree difference in temperature is little compared to the sunshine penalty of a westerly set up with low pressure crossing central Britain.

I'm all for mild and warmth, but not for a couple of degree change which carries frequent showers and longer spells of rain day in day out. Unless you like the sound of paddling down a high street

I hope we get into a more favourable set up, but strong winds with these low pressure from experience really reduce the convective potential to just a load of moderate rain showers which last about 2 minutes. Simply put I want anything except the output provided by the ECM

Nothings growing at he moment, watch a burst of blossom and all the daffs suddenly bloom in the showers and milder temps, its very much needed

For all those banking on a warm spring summer, don't look at the CFS, Lol.

at least it will be....er 'mild'

[mushymanrob]

I love how mildies take a spell of cold wet weather just because it's slightly warmer than we have now.

Love the reptil argument, I'm ure they would rather take the 8/9 hours of sunshine a day compared to the 1/2 hour intermittent sunshine which would come from say the ECM output, I'm no animal expert but I'm sure they like basking in the sun, a 4 degree difference in temperature is little compared to the sunshine penalty of a westerly set up with low pressure crossing central Britain.

I'm all for mild and warmth, but not for a couple of degree change which carries frequent showers and longer spells of rain day in day out. Unless you like the sound of paddling down a high street

I hope we get into a more favourable set up, but strong winds with these low pressure from experience really reduce the convective potential to just a load of moderate rain showers which last about 2 minutes. Simply put I want anything except the output provided by the ECM

love the way youve just proven my point

its NOT going to be cold and wet all the time... and night time frosts will become a rareity, its not all about sunshine. plus its a necessary step in the warming up process. its not going to go from freezing to heat overnight...

ok, so lets just suppose reptiles would prefer basking in the sun with temps below 7c (which btw they wouldnt) because a sunny day is preferable to a warmer but intermittently sunny one..... what will they feed on?...

no, the facts are that this cold has been pretty disasterous for most of our native wildlife speciese, its hit wildlife pretty hard. now i dare say it might recover, but its a blow it could do without.

Nothings growing at he moment, watch a burst of blossom and all the daffs suddenly bloom in the showers and milder temps, its very much needed

at least it will be....er 'mild'

exactly..... buds are getting ready, held back but are there, blossoms will be out with avengance soon. grass will soon start growing in earnest especially if we get some rain.

Edited April 2, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Jax]

First "true" day this year where it has been a pleasure to be outside without being wrapped up like an inuit.

Once the wind relented and I was able to bask in the wall to wall blue sky sunshine it became a lovely afternoon here.

This winter while "picture postcard" at times was nice has been drawn out some time now.

It is a pleasure too to see the plants and tree's finally budding and showing signs of life, the birds visiting the garden are too singing to draw a mate for the spring and no longer silenced by prelonged cold and hunger.

[Isabellesnanny]

Today's hint of spring has been lovely - everyone I have spoken to has said how miserable the weather has been making them feel and how they are desperate for some spring like - or even just milder weather - hopefully is it's on it's way ..........finally .

[Costa Del Fal]

Same here, a lovely warm day in the sun. Little wind. But its still so cold at night etc, Nothing is growing and outdoor businesses like my parents's are struggling. Please coldies have some respect to those like mushymanrob who rely on better conditions. Whilst I appreciate everyone has their interests, the way some coldies are posting is becoming ignorant now imo. Yes it may rain next week, but temperatures that will allow growing will return and when the sun comes out (And no coldies, it wont be endless cloud and rain), it will feel very pleasant.

Edited April 2, 2013 by Blizzards

[Captain Shortwave]

Ok Mushy, I'm just feel grateful that half the area I live in is not underwater due to actually having some dry weather. It's not just cold which is bad for wildlife and business. We both want the same thing and that's warmth, but as I said before I just can't see it, when we compare temperatures by next week to now, apart from eastern coastal areas there will probably not be much difference, that negated by the weather conditions. I would rather it be dry instead of the possible washout we can get with low pressure coming straight through us.

Frankly round my way I'm not sure what has killed a lot of the trees and plants, was it the cold or snow, or was it being underwater for long periods of time making even a moderate breeze uproot and kill them.

Edited April 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think most of the milder scenarios that showed on the model outputs during mid to late March would have brought persistent cloud cover, with rain at times, to most parts of the country, for we were showing as stuck underneath a south to south-easterly flow with slow-moving fronts pushing against the continental block.

The unsettled regime showing on the current model outputs is rather more mobile, so away from the depression cores there should be significant brighter interludes in between the rain belts. The areas that are close to the depression cores, however, will be prone to slow-moving fronts which may bring more persistent dull wet weather- I recall that this was a common issue at times last year, especially during late-April, June, and early to mid-July.

Thus I'm not too confident on what the surface weather will be like in association with the upcoming unsettled spell, but I think if the models have got the jet positioning roughly correct, the odds favour generally dull wet weather over Scotland (especially the northern half of Scotland) but with sunshine totals generally not far from normal over most of England and Wales.

[Captain Shortwave]

I think most of the milder scenarios that showed on the model outputs during mid to late March would have brought persistent cloud cover, with rain at times, to most parts of the country, for we were showing as stuck underneath a south to south-easterly flow with slow-moving fronts pushing against the continental block.

The unsettled regime showing on the current model outputs is rather more mobile, so away from the depression cores there should be significant brighter interludes in between the rain belts. The areas that are close to the depression cores, however, will be prone to slow-moving fronts which may bring more persistent dull wet weather- I recall that this was a common issue at times last year, especially during late-April, June, and early to mid-July.

Thus I'm not too confident on what the surface weather will be like in association with the upcoming unsettled spell, but I think if the models have got the jet positioning roughly correct, the odds favour generally dull wet weather over Scotland (especially the northern half of Scotland) but with sunshine totals generally not far from normal over most of England and Wales.

The middle paragraph is actually what I mean, I spent most of the summer here with low after low crossing where I lived, day after day of showers or longer spells of rain with sunshine limited to the early morning or late evening if you were lucky. Given the windy set up as well from UKMO and ECM I would expect the weather to be mostly cloudy even away from frontal bands with showers being blown off the atlantic frequently with lots of fairly low cloud occupying the skies for periods of time. GFS tonight would provide a more atypical sunshine and showers scenario with a slacker pattern allowing home grown cells to develop a lot more which also allows more gaps in the cloud.

[Scorcher]

The thing that gets me is how the coldies criticise people for suggesting the cold is affecting nature/farmers etc and then they themselves often criticise anyone who wants something milder due to the possibility of it becoming wetter. There are a couple of posters in the model output at the moment who seem to have several posts on every page and almost every post mentions cold and nothing else, they are quite remarkable for their love of monotony. I don't mind the current bright weather too much as long as I'm just looking out at it but it's very monotonous indeed. I'd actually like to feel some different kind of air now after weeks of these raw easterlies. It really is rather unpleasant to be out and about in it and I'd like to be able to at least ditch the coats, hats and gloves now, even if I have to replace them with a hood or an umbrella for a while.

[mike Meehan]

Right now I am gagging for a significant rise in temperature and really hoping that this year we can have a decent summer.

It hasn't esaped me that this, so far, very cold spring is likely to have a significant impact on agriculture - I wonder whether there will be sufficient bees around for pollination and will late frosts adversely affect the fruit trees,

On the other hand with a relatively slow thaw in the worst affected parts will mean that the chances of flooding could be diminished.

[Snowman.]

The thing that gets me is how the coldies criticise people for suggesting the cold is affecting nature/farmers etc and then they themselves often criticise anyone who wants something milder due to the possibility of it becoming wetter. There are a couple of posters in the model output at the moment who seem to have several posts on every page and almost every post mentions cold and nothing else, they are quite remarkable for their love of monotony. I don't mind the current bright weather too much as long as I'm just looking out at it but it's very monotonous indeed. I'd actually like to feel some different kind of air now after weeks of these raw easterlies. It really is rather unpleasant to be out and about in it and I'd like to be able to at least ditch the coats, hats and gloves now, even if I have to replace them with a hood or an umbrella for a while.

That's because many don't see the 'real impact'

When I heard that the 27 year old died I felt strangely guilty.

For sure I don't mind cold in Winter but cold in spring and severe cold in spring really isn't needed.