Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[mushymanrob]

Confined to being indoors most of the time due to my disabilities. What isn't helping is a government who are targeting the disabled and most vulnerable people in society! Im even thinking of returning home to live with my parents which at the age of 41 isn't ideal.

May of been slightly off topic here!

im all for the government clamping down on people who chose to make a career out of living on benefits, the mick philpots of this world, but as usual theyve made a complete cock up and have made things worse for those genuine people who need it, after all thats what the system was set up for, as a safety net for those fallen on hard times. hope things improve dave.

tbh i think we will see alot more people turning to disliking this rather pointless cold... ok if it snows, but thats unlikely now, im missing spring.

[johnholmes]

I have to admit to the liking for changeable weather in the spring, days of sunshine, little wind and warmth, the odd gale and a couple of days with a bitter northerly giving a mix of wintry showers, often snow in the heavier ones, and even a morning with snow lying. This constant cold is not pleasant especially with the breeze as well.

saying in this part of the world, wen' winds in't east=no good for man nor beast

very true

Edited March 28, 2013 by johnholmes

[weather_it_will]

and have made things worse for those genuine people who need it,

A friend of mine managed to get all the benefits before the changes came into force last year.

Quite chuffed that as a geniune claimant they have got quite a good deal and nothing will be taken away, except proper housing does not exist for those who need it!

[UV-RAY]

Down here in Wrexham in the hospital I'm under care at, there are a axing scenes for this time of year. There is at least a foot of lying snow with no thawing taking place whatsoever. The beginning of the snow line was also remarkable, from nothing to a foot within the space of a few yards, amazing.

[phil nw.]

Blimey that wind felt raw today.Even though the daytime max`s may rise a degree or two over the next few days it will make little difference to the cold feel of things if the wind doesn`t drop.Indeed the pressure gradient looks like tightening next week with that Easterly picking up again.

Like many others i am ready for some warmth now

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm seeing strong hints of, following a mainly dry sunny Easter weekend, the return of easterlies into next week with rather less cold air, and remember that the North Sea is cooler than usual for the time of year. I feel that a rather dry, cloudy and cold start to April is looking odds-on, except perhaps for sheltered western areas which may see some sunshine. Unless pressure falls over Scandinavia opening the back door for a northerly, I don't see much chance of snow from this regime once we get into April.

Edited March 29, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Alex]

I'm seeing strong hints of, following a mainly dry sunny Easter weekend, the return of easterlies into next week with rather less cold air, and remember that the North Sea is cooler than usual for the time of year. I feel that a rather dry, cloudy and cold start to April is looking odds-on, except perhaps for sheltered western areas which may see some sunshine. Unless pressure falls over Scandinavia opening the back door for a northerly, I don't see much chance of snow from this regime once we get into April.

What do you make of the met office's view that unsettled weather may come into southeastern areas? I can't see it myself with heights over Scandinavia. Also increasingly on the lookout for a change in the orientation of the high which allows southeasterly winds from southern Europe akin to early March!

Fed up of cold now!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking over the forecast from the Met Office it doesn't specify unsettled in the south-east- it suggests turning unsettled in the south generally, which is perhaps indicative of the jet stream moving a bit further north allowing low pressure systems to move across the south, a bit like the setup we saw for much of last year's summer. Once again, we have the issue that the only significantly warmer weather in the outlook has a rather cloudy and wet look to it (a split between a cold dry north and unsettled south rarely translates to sunshine and showers in my experience).

Edited March 29, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[johnholmes]

I know we all have our preferences but how folk in the model thread can still be looking for snow when its almost the start of the 2nd month of spring, clocks go forward tomorrow night, really is beyond me. I can understand the anticipation in October for snow but almost in April! I could even understand it if after a pretty mixed bag of weather through March there was a hint of a blast of a brief northerly but gawd its been unrelenting cold for weeks.

takes all sorts I suppose. Best I go in there and post some objectivity perhaps?

[Average Joe]

I know we all have our preferences but how folk in the model thread can still be looking for snow when its almost the start of the 2nd month of spring, clocks go forward tomorrow night, really is beyond me. I can understand the anticipation in October for snow but almost in April! I could even understand it if after a pretty mixed bag of weather through March there was a hint of a blast of a brief northerly but gawd its been unrelenting cold for weeks.

takes all sorts I suppose. Best I go in there and post some objectivity perhaps?

I agree John.....it's utterly ridiculous!! I can understand that some may prefer colder conditions to warmer ones, but continually looking for and ramping up snow prospects for April is beyond me as well. It's the comments such as "What WE need is....." as well......."we" as in who exactly??

[mushymanrob]

..... and many a reasonable cold fan has now had enough, teits for eg. if its not going to snow, then what use is the cold? ok cold snaps in spring are normal, they add to the enjoyment of our mixed weather, i like the cold fresh sunny air.... but not every flippin day!

i must say, this is the 8th consecutive day ive had lying snow..... broke the record by a factor of x2! it was 1970 when i had 4 days, every snow event in march/april since were one day wonders.

OI GOD! ok, youve proved a point! we have witnessed a nasty cold spring spell, now can we have 'normal' please?...

[CongletonHeat]

Model thread is extremely tedious now, Gavin posts ensembles showing milder then Purga quotes his every post with a counter argument, repeat after repeat, Purga's 260 odd posts must have all come this week he seems to have 3 or 4 posts on every page.

[IanR]

I think some should move to the tundra , the deep winter long lasting snow is not going going to happen now, just tedious rather below average temps for the next two weeks in that the only thing they are doing is delaying spring growth and being an annoyance , Roll on next two weeks!

Saying that its rather nice today

Edited March 29, 2013 by IanR

[Jax]

I think some should move to the tundra , the deep winter long lasting snow is not going going to happen now, just tedious rather below average temps for the next two weeks in that the only thing they are doing is delaying spring growth and being an annoyance , Roll on next two weeks!

Saying that its rather nice today

Not too bad here when the sun was out, will be glad to see Spring finally get sprung too.

[Average Joe]

Model thread is extremely tedious now, Gavin posts ensembles showing milder then Purga quotes his every post with a counter argument, repeat after repeat, Purga's 260 odd posts must have all come this week he seems to have 3 or 4 posts on every page.

Hahaha....that's brilliant....and SO SO true as well!! Spot on, Love it!! Has to be comment of the month for me!!

[Summer Sun]

Down here in Wrexham in the hospital I'm under care at, there are a axing scenes for this time of year. There is at least a foot of lying snow with no thawing taking place whatsoever. The beginning of the snow line was also remarkable, from nothing to a foot within the space of a few yards, amazing.

I hope all has gone well for you

[Peejayem]

Good grief, those cold loving fanatics are such a defensive bunch! Gavin quite reasonably posts a few GFS FI charts that might show some encouragement to get out this dross and within five minutes a four-pronged attack appears! It's almost as if they were waiting for him!

[mushymanrob]

Good grief, those cold loving fanatics are such a defensive bunch! Gavin quite reasonably posts a few GFS FI charts that might show some encouragement to get out this dross and within five minutes a four-pronged attack appears! It's almost as if they were waiting for him!

thats right. gavin only posts actual data and comments on that. he doesnt ramp and is only getting stick because the charts posted dont become reality. coldies though go to great lengths to suggest fantasy cold evolutions. if anybody want chiding its them. but some areheld in such undeserved regard its not acceptable to say anything against them.

[johnholmes]

Good grief, those cold loving fanatics are such a defensive bunch! Gavin quite reasonably posts a few GFS FI charts that might show some encouragement to get out this dross and within five minutes a four-pronged attack appears! It's almost as if they were waiting for him!

Not an attack from me more an attempt to put an objective viewpoint. To new folk some of cherry chart picking can be highly confusing, be it from the mild brigade or the cold one. Yes the model thread is one that folk seem to enjoy the roller coaster ride of hye/hopecasting, usually for cold but it does no harm to inject some reality at times in my view?

[Summer Sun]

Good grief, those cold loving fanatics are such a defensive bunch! Gavin quite reasonably posts a few GFS FI charts that might show some encouragement to get out this dross and within five minutes a four-pronged attack appears! It's almost as if they were waiting for him!

They getting that desperate now there looking at the permutations lol

Its fine for coldies to post snowmageddon type charts (and sometimes thats it no comment) in the winter but when those of us looking to get some overdue milder weather we get shot down!

Anyway my search for something more seasonal will continue next up GFS ensembles then ECM

[phil nw.]

Posting so called FI charts is part of model discussion whether cold or mild.Members just need to be mindful,whether uploading or viewing them, that they rarely verify .

No harm in using them for discussion purposes though but for longer term mean and ens. outputs are better viewed for likely trends or changes in the 500hPa pattern.

Edited March 29, 2013 by phil nw.

[Peejayem]

John, you hadn't made your post in the mod thread before i made mine in here, and anyway I'd never lump you amongst the defensive coldies!

A greater dose of reality would indeed be welcome. GFS 18z FI looks a bit optimistic IMO, but then again "winter tightening its icy grip" as we head well into April seems a bit OTT!

[Frosty_wsm]

thats right. gavin only posts actual data and comments on that. he doesnt ramp and is only getting stick because the charts posted dont become reality. coldies though go to great lengths to suggest fantasy cold evolutions. if anybody want chiding its them. but some areheld in such undeserved regard its not acceptable to say anything against them.

How about you stop tarnishing all 'coldies' with the same brush, it's getting very tiring tbh! I'm a coldie, do you see me posting in the mod thread giving gavin stick for looking for warmth in fi charts, in other words I don't need childing thanks. And as for those respected members you talk about, I can guess at one your referring to and I haven't seen him knocking any of gavin's posts, have you??

If somebody wants to continue looking for cold at this time of year then good luck to em, I'd rather have some warmth now but good luck to those who want cold, I haven't got a problem with that although it would appear you and a few others do and if that's the case why don't you just ignore their posts.

[Terminal Moraine]

I know we all have our preferences but how folk in the model thread can still be looking for snow when its almost the start of the 2nd month of spring, clocks go forward tomorrow night, really is beyond me. I can understand the anticipation in October for snow but almost in April! I could even understand it if after a pretty mixed bag of weather through March there was a hint of a blast of a brief northerly but gawd its been unrelenting cold for weeks.

takes all sorts I suppose. Best I go in there and post some objectivity perhaps?

Well, John, for me it's like this ( although I'm not in the model thread, at least very rarely ).

I'm still looking for snow because the later in the season it gets the more anomalous it is to get any snow (or any protracted severe cold for that matter) and the more anomalous it is on the cold side of the spectrum the better I like it.

The more the weather pushes at the boundaries of current extremes the more I think there just might be a chance that something fundamental has changed and that something beyond what we ever thought was possible might happen.

I spent years of my childhood reading accounts of extreme weather during The Little Ice Age and hoping desperately that I might live through something similar ( some events have come close! ) and nothing has changed since I got old (er ).

I like my weather and climate to be challenging. I can't really identify with those who want the weather to be cosy and safe; for me that's like living in a Stepford Wives like suburbia where all the shops are nice and handy and the pub is a few doors away and nothing short of a volcanic eruption would disrupt the smooth pattern of daily life.

I relish the thought of having to plan ahead and stock up for winter in case I can't get out; I love having to dig out the road everytime there's a good snowfall; I love having to keep an eye on the roof when there's a severe gale; I like the weather to remind me not to take it for granted and to show it some respect.

So, I'll still be looking for snow at the end of May and if we get late frosts and snow showers in June, as in 1975, and my bean row is hanging in black tatters I'll be more pleased that the weather has thrown up such an extreme anomaly than I will be annoyed at the ruination of my gardening efforts.

After all if things have shifted so much it snows in June, who knows it might even snow in July; there might be drifts surviving all summer in the Peak District; there might be a small glacier on Kinder Scout.

Oh dear I'm getting carried away again!

[Chris K]

Just imagine if there was ever a blocking pattern where we were locked into warm southerlies with thundery lows forming in the bay of Biscay being thrown up towards us