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i think you get an unreasonably rough time here, just because you are (rightly imho) pessimistic.

 

i see the ecm isnt playing the heatwave ball... hence not much posted on it...

 

 

It's playing the same general ball as the other models, rising pressure and warmer temps after the 5th July, as are it's ensembles (I've already posted operational charts and Summer Sun has just posted the ensembles so won't repeat them here). Detail and whether it is a technical heatwave isn't really worth focusing on at this stage.

 

Why is it right to be pessimistic, surely it's better to hold a more optimistic if neutral view?Anyway this post belongs more in the moaning thread..

Edited by Stormmad26
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From a verification & accuracy point of view, posting charts of deep F.I may seem pointless, however I wouldn't say it is.. It helps learners such as myself on figuring out how and/or why the models are picking up these signals and what COULD develop out of the features shown if it did actually verify. The main difference is that I do not expect these charts to verify as such long range.

 

If people stopped having high expectations from charts past T+144 I think it would prevent a lot of bickering as people seem to get so frustrated from models 'downgrading' as it enters the reliable time-frame. Reliable being the key word here - lets be realistic - we should all know by now that changes occur right up the day itself, so seeing posters who have been here for a while get fed up from their perfect weather type not verifying from F.I charts bemuses me slightly to be honest.

 

I also unfortunately think the knowledge shared by some top notch posters (Snowking, Tamara, John Holmes just to name a few) isn't being taken in fully.

 

I remember Snowking making a point on how he expected this Summer to pan out - Something along the lines of 'No where near as wet as last year, but nothing spectacularly hot either' ?? (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

 

I believe so far that June has followed this prediction pretty close to the mark and even dates he mentioned of potential pattern changes have been spot on/close. Earlier this week I noted from a post he made - Relatively settled weather this week seen as a sort of 'bonus'. Expects it to become more changeable until a potential settling down towards middle third of July (possibly by approx 10th). - Quite general notes by me but he had it backed up with good chart analysis. I'm very interested to see how it pans out, whilst realising certain factors can cause shifts in the likely surface weather features we'll experience here in the UK.

 

We haven't really had the wall to wall days of sunshine and warmth that some of us crave to see in Summer. But this is the UK not the continent and compared to last year?? -  I'm just glad we are not currently getting troughs pushing in from our west and stalling over the UK for days on end, getting reinvigorated by another pushing in straight away (usually on a Friday as well if I remember rightly).

 

The models are a tool to see potential outcomes...not a dead set forecast.

 

And finally...

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/ <<<------------ Very good thread to pop in each day or two to have a glance at for the more technical posts. Slow paced, but excellent for balanced analysis. I think more should read it as it's often very informative.

Edited by Chris K
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 this summers looks like going down as the biggest heat tease ever... always in fi, never in reality.

Oh i dont know.It's only really been the last week or so that the models have been "teasing" with near future heat scenarios.July and August to come yet, plus September.
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IMO, anyone searching for 60 days' wall-to-wall sunshine with temps always at 25C or better, are going to be disappointed...I think we should be basing our expectations according to what's average for the UK, and not for the Costa del Sol?Posted Image 

 

who is doing that?.... i think most of us warmth lovers would settle for a decent week of high temps and sunshine, something we havnt had countrywide for 7 years now.

 

You need more patience mushy, it will change soon, the beginnings of the change could be as little as 6 days away, the met office update is improving, the model trends are heading in the right direction.

 

hope so karl, but 7 years of disappointment (7 years of the fi tease) , all im seeing is a delay in the expected heatwave. anything settled, warm, sunny is being pushed back or downgraded. the ever building azores ridge that inevitably collapses into nothing much, plus theres no tangible support from the mjo or anomaly charts for anything prolonged, settled and warm.

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Oh i dont know.It's only really been the last week or so that the models have been "teasing" with near future heat scenarios.July and August to come yet, plus September.

 

aaarrrgh!

 

september is autumn. not summer, sunshine and temps dont make a summer, they are only 2 ingredients... day length, birdsong, flowering plants, etc all are in the 'summer' mix...

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aaarrrgh!

 

september is autumn. not summer, sunshine and temps dont make a summer, they are only 2 ingredients... day length, birdsong, flowering plants, etc all are in the 'summer' mix...

That is true meteorologically speaking, still in my 23 years of life September has probably been the most reliable month at delivering good "summer like" weather.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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That is true meteorologically speak, still in my 23 years of life September has probably been the most reliable month at delivering good "summer like" weather.

 

... and swifts? flowering lillies? daylength? sun hight? birdsong? honeysuckle?

 

i know that in terms of delivering 'summer like' conditions, september fares well, my point though is that summer isnt just about sunshine and heat!  thats only part of the picture.

 

i feel sorry for people who regard 'summer' only as sunshine and heat, you are missing out on a banquet of stimulants.

I didn't know a heatwave was expected. All I've seen is some low res charts showing 29-32C temps. Anyone who invests in low res modelling knows the risks! I.e it's not especially odds on to materialise.

 

youve not been following this thread then! :p

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aaarrrgh! september is autumn. not summer, sunshine and temps dont make a summer, they are only 2 ingredients... day length, birdsong, flowering plants, etc all are in the 'summer' mix...

I wouldnt get too hooked up on the meteorological definition. If it stays warm and sunny in September that's an extension of Summer in my book.
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... and swifts? flowering lillies? daylength? sun hight? birdsong? honeysuckle?i know that in terms of delivering 'summer like' conditions, september fares well, my point though is that summer isnt just about sunshine and heat! thats only part of the picture.i feel sorry for people who regard 'summer' only as sunshine and heat, you are missing out on a banquet of stimulants.youve not been following this thread then! :p

Don't bother, you're wasting your breath, all that nice sensitive stuff won't be appreciated on here! September sun is lovely in its own way but to see sun and blue skies at this time of year lifts the spirits no end with all the vibrancy of LIFE going on around.
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**Mad Ramp Alert**

 

 

Carlsberg don't do long range forecasts, but if they did................phroar, look at temp anomalies for January this coming winter!.....can you spell 'S-N-O-W'??   Posted Image

 

post-4149-0-76653400-1372456904_thumb.pn

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Why is it right to be pessimistic, surely it's better to hold a more optimistic if neutral view?Anyway this post belongs more in the moaning thread..

because this this the uk and what can go wrong does go wrong quite often, i don't like being negative but like i said when i do feel positive i end up getting a kick in the teeth and come crashing back down to reality, this is not just about the weather but in other walks of life too like finding jobs, my football team i support etc but we adapt and just live with it

 

tbh i would still have been happy if it was sunny next week as my crops badly need the sun now, its not been cold recently but its been quite dull, i know i would be stuck indoors watching the tennis but at least the weather would be good for my crops, now there will be not much warmth and sun and the tennis will be rained off at times

Edited by Tony27
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I wouldnt get too hooked up on the meteorological definition. If it stays warm and sunny in September that's an extension of Summer in my book.

 

thought id made it clear what summer is to me, its about alot more then  sunshine and warmth.  i agree that september warmth is summerlike, i agree with stainsbloke that it has its own beauty, but the air in september is musty (esp in the morning) when theres more dampness around, dying vegetation starting to decay, birds are quiet, scented flowering summer plants are finished.... to me summer is a 5 course banquet, september is a maccy d's.

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Last week's weather was the sort that I often feel I'm supposed to feel grateful for (because it wasn't a June 2012-style washout and was more "usable" than sunny spells mixed with thundery downpours) but that I find tedious.  Monday to Wednesday were dry but mainly cloudy with not a lot going on, and then Thursday and Friday were cloudy with a bit of light rain, and again, not a lot going on.  That's really been the downside of this summer so far to my mind, not a lot of notable weather events, but there were some warm sunny days to enjoy in the first third of the month and again on the 18th/19th.

 

The benign and uneventful weather looks like continuing for a while but maybe if that high pressure can build far enough to the NE in 7-10 days' time we might see something of more significant note.

 

It depends on the individual but I think Septembers (and also Mays) can significantly influence my perception of how "good" a summer is.  1999 and 2003 were good examples of years when I felt that summer lasted well into September and gave the impression of a "long" summer.  I imagine that May 1989 would have created a widespread impression of a "long" summer among the general public, and May 1992 an "early" summer before the Atlantic took over in July and August.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Precipitation amounts for the next 8 months are showing to be rather low especially towards the south and west if this continues for the rest of the year I can see drought orders coming back in force either later this year on into 2014 all that rain we got in 2012 will only last for so long

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I gotta rant.

 

Talking about benign and uneventful weather

 

For some parts of the world, it's bloody hurricanes, tornado's, severe thunder storms

 

Today in the Uk, the biggest discussion is where will the cloud be breaking !!

 

I want the traditional English summer to return. Three hots days, followed by a proper thunder breakdown

 

I dunno why the Uk seems to have a storm shield around it these days

 

Storms for France... they may tease the channel islands... but generally fear to float in the general direction of the Uk

 

If they do, they fizzle out over the channel, and we get the drizzly remnants

 

The weather needs a good kick up the I have a problem. Cya

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I gotta rant.

 

Talking about benign and uneventful weather

 

For some parts of the world, it's bloody hurricanes, tornado's, severe thunder storms

 

Today in the Uk, the biggest discussion is where will the cloud be breaking !!

 

I want the traditional English summer to return. Three hots days, followed by a proper thunder breakdown

 

I dunno why the Uk seems to have a storm shield around it these days

 

Storms for France... they may tease the channel islands... but generally fear to float in the general direction of the Uk

 

If they do, they fizzle out over the channel, and we get the drizzly remnants

 

The weather needs a good kick up the I have a problem. Cya

Temperatures are hitting 80F in places today, not too bad

26 degrees being recorded at quite a few weather stations :)

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Temperatures are hitting 80F in places today, not too bad26 degrees being recorded at quite a few weather stations :)

Yes but I think he's letting off steam at the lack of storms more than anything, which is very true. As for today, it's beautiful! But it's one day, not 3 ;)
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Yes but I think he's letting off steam at the lack of storms more than anything, which is very true. As for today, it's beautiful! But it's one day, not 3 Posted Image

Hopefully the recent charts allow us to bid more than 3 nice days then Posted Image

The convective potential this summer has been naff all I give you that.

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Hopefully the recent charts allow us to bid more than 3 nice days then Posted Image

The convective potential this summer has been naff all I give you that.

Well some reason to be optimistic for later this week for sure, going by model output :) About time, too!
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Re next week, are we looking at four days of warmth, that is not as warm as the weekend just gone?!?

 

Not quite. The warmth should get going on Friday and its impossible to say when it will last to. The GFS 12z slowly removes the warmth from the north throughout next week but the SE remains very warm all week. All models are pointing towards higher temperatures than what we saw on Sunday.

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Not quite. The warmth should get going on Friday and its impossible to say when it will last to. The GFS 12z slowly removes the warmth from the north throughout next week but the SE remains very warm all week. All models are pointing towards higher temperatures than what we saw on Sunday.

And, as they say, it's only one run from one model...None of us knows what will happen after day 10...

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I see the downgrades are digging in now for the heatwave slowly but surely, i'd be seething with rage if I lived in Scotland/Northern Ireland, if it continues once again it will turn into South East takes all after a nice Friday.

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