Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[conor123]

What a surprise after upgrading to an alright day BAM because its the weekend Sunday has to now change it a cold miserable grimfes, it ALWAYS rains on sundays here, why can it never be nice at the weekend, shock horror 18-20c next week already progged to come to a grinding halt and replaced by northerlies in time for next weekend.

[johnholmes]

I suppose with a name like Deep Freeze we should expect a somewhat biased view of the weather in his part of the Midlands.

Here, a touch further north, then yes the change in my garden over the past 7-8 days is quite dramatic for flowers, plants, shrubs and trees, and of course the frogs. Not warm, well it depends on what one terms as warm in mid April, 5 days over 15C including one of 20.2C is 'fairly' warm I would have thought?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What a surprise after upgrading to an alright day BAM because its the weekend Sunday has to now change it a cold miserable grimfes, it ALWAYS rains on sundays here, why can it never be nice at the weekend, shock horror 18-20c next week already progged to come to a grinding halt and replaced by northerlies in time for next weekend.

 

Yeah, unreal how sunday is always wet, this sunday looking a washout, but expect it now

[johnholmes]

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=7a0b3ec7ee5c2aa6bb332286d15a6186

is the rainfall pattern for Sunday and it is mid/late afternoon before the rain sets in for the NW Midlands area. Of course this far out it could be wrong!

[Scorcher]

the GFS has now fallen more into line with the euro models such as the ECM, with a much colder longer term outlook. I suspect if it happens it could be a 'locked in' pattern too, like many of the similar blocked patterns we have seen this year so far - we'll have to keep an eye on the outputs following these, but it's hard to argue with the ECM and its consistent ensembles (though the GFS ensembles have been remarkably consistent in agreement too, despite the operational outliers.

 

There are a fair few pessimists on this forum but I think you're number one at the moment SP, that's unless you're actually wishing for these 'much colder' conditions you talk about. In the reliable time frame GFS remains fairly warm for next week and until I see these cold conditions you mention in the reliable time frame I won't be making any more judgements on it. Of course it could turn colder and the pattern could become 'locked in', but I'm not going to make sweeping judgements based on one run from GFS. The ECM 12Z is hardly disastrous anyway, certainly not to the extent you make out in your post.

 

Is it just me or is this thread quite a depressing read at times?

Edited April 18, 2013 by Scorcher

[CongletonHeat]

Is it just me or is this thread quite a depressing read at times?

Not just you mate, I've started putting them on the ignore list, they bore me rigid.

[mushymanrob]

rain? whats that?... oh i remember last summer! lol.

 

its bone dry here, what bit of rain we have had soon dries up. im dusting off my garden watering system this weekend. its looking like sundays front will lose its energy, dumping most rain in the north and west.

[Mr Frost]

There are a fair few pessimists on this forum but I think you're number one at the moment SP, that's unless you're actually wishing for these 'much colder' conditions you talk about. In the reliable time frame GFS remains fairly warm for next week and until I see these cold conditions you mention in the reliable time frame I won't be making any more judgements on it. Of course it could turn colder and the pattern could become 'locked in', but I'm not going to make sweeping judgements based on one run from GFS. The ECM 12Z is hardly disastrous anyway, certainly not to the extent you make out in your post.

 

Is it just me or is this thread quite a depressing read at times?

 

 

 

 

 

Eh?

 

It has been depressing lately reading fantasy posts about fine weather and heatwaves on a weekly basis. 

What's wrong with people who view all available data posting the truth? (Gibby, snowking and i'm dreaming of...for example who give a balanced view)

 

I want some heat as much as anyone on here but I like to have a balanced, realistic and non heat tinted spectacles view. 

This time of the year I know there are only about 10 die hard posters on here and they are not keen on cooler weather, that's what is coming though after a decent few days next week in the South and East of England. 

 

And CongletonHeatwe you will only be reading the views of 5 people then who have the same biased view as yourself. 

 

No wonder this place has been deserted with the remaining 10 people shooting down anyone who gives an honest view. 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2013 by Mr Frost

[Iceni]

A simple question. What is the likelihood of a repeat of last year's May? Will it be warm enough for the fruit blossom, bees etd. to come out only to be cut down by frost?

 

My freezer's nearly empty of everything I managed to grow last year and the year before as there was no fruit harvest at all in 2012.

[SP1986]

GFS has really lost it this time..

 

 

No wonder people don't trust this model anymore!

[phil nw.]

GFS has really lost it this time..

 

 

No wonder people don't trust this model anymore!

I know you have an ongoing interest in the GFS temps.forecasts Stephen but those low Mins are possible.

Cold upper air,relative calm conditions and clearing skies in Polar sourced air all combine to give the right conditions for low mins.

Looking at the met o.site shows those readings are not unusual and indeed much lower ones have been recorded in April/May.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/monthly_temperature_country.html

and that`s just for England.

GFS may have it wrong but maybe best to wait until after Sat.night to judge the Model,s accuracy perhaps?

[weather_it_will]

GFS may have it wrong but maybe best to wait until after Sat.night to judge the Model,s accuracy perhaps?

Meto temperatures for my area are currently 2°C for Friday night, so I can imagine it could well be below zero by Saturday morning.The wind is also changing from NW to NE, so it will be feeling cold.

[mushymanrob]

great to see balanced views in the md thread, apart from the odd cold biased ones.. much better now then wnter.

[SomeLikeItHot]

great to see balanced views in the md thread, apart from the odd cold biased ones.. much better now then wnter.

Well I agree that the cold bias is worse in winter when every bit of cold in FI is celebrated as snow.  Pretty sure I would have been digging myself out if all the predicted convective snowfall from easterlies had eventuated. 

 

However we had all March being told how it would be "warm in any sunshine" when it was 4 degrees max  with a freezing easterly and snow showers, so I can't say the place is balanced now (with a few exceptions). While the coming cooler weather over the next week has been over hyped by a few, its also been minimized by others - "a one day cold blip before above average temps returned" was being stated a couple of days ago. "Even easterly are warm" this time of year was another (despite the Nth sea still being much colder than usual).

 

The unfortunate thing is that most people still forecast what they want to see - mild/warm weather just doesn't have the excitement of snow potential for most though so there is far less around at the moment.

Edited April 24, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

.

Edited April 24, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[mushymanrob]

Well I agree that the cold bias is worse in winter when every bit of cold in FI is celebrated as snow.  Pretty sure I would have been digging myself out if all the predicted convective snowfall from easterlies had eventuated. 

 

However we had all March being told how it would be "warm in any sunshine" when it was 4 degrees max  with a freezing easterly and snow showers, so I can't say the place is balanced now (with a few exceptions). While the coming cooler weather over the next week has been over hyped by a few, its also been minimized by others - "a one day cold blip before above average temps returned" was being stated a couple of days ago. "Even easterly are warm" this time of year was another (despite the Nth sea still being much colder than usual).

 

The unfortunate thing is that most people still forecast what they want to see - mild/warm weather just doesn't have the excitement of snow potential for most though so there is far less around at the moment.

 

bib... but we are in late april now, not march, and its now i refered to as much more balanced, not march!

 

theres a handful who are posting unbiased, intelligent posts providing all the information any weather watcher might want to see and without wading through reams of nonsense and hot air to get to it.

 

well done you guys.

[weather_it_will]

theres a handful who are posting unbiased, intelligent posts

What you really mean is that some people are posting what you want to hear, which is not necessarily what everyone else wants to hear!I get tired of the people in the model thread saying how warm it is going to feel in pleasant sunshine, and how the daisy's will be springing up,and the cows will be singing, as it has nothing whatsoever to do with weather models, but is just patronising rubbish.There is no getting away from biased posts, be it hot or cold. Edited April 24, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[mushymanrob]

What you really mean is that some people are posting what you want to hear, which is not necessarily what everyone else wants to hear!I get tired of the people in the model thread saying how warm it is going to feel in pleasant sunshine, and how the daisy's will be springing up,and the cows will be singing, as it has nothing whatsoever to do with weather models, but is just patronising rubbish.There is no getting away from biased posts, be it hot or cold.

 

 

you are spot on... some people, actually just about everyone, IS posting what i want to hear, intelligently constructed unbiased analysis of what the models are showing. as the outlook is cool, no ones posting (within a realistic timeframe, only as a possible (inevitable) outcome in fi) what id personally prefer, that is sunny, warm, settled. 'no getting away from biased posts'? theres very little now, not like the reams of ramping, hopecasting, and fantasy cold evolution posts that ruin the md thread for the ordinary guys just wanting some realistic info.

 

no difference between people saying itll feel pleasant in the sun to people saying itll feel bitter in the cold..... except theres more doing that and with glee.

Edited April 25, 2013 by mushymanrob

[SP1986]

This is not pessimism or whatever anyone else wants to think but I'm not overly convinced of a high pressure scenario going into May.. I know at the moment there's a lot of people suggesting this to be the case, but in my viewing of the models, it strikes me that there are too many holes to allow the build of pressure into May, for example cut off lows, and little highs popping up everywhere.. in my opinion it's just too messy to allow an organised build of pressure which would allow warmer air to be wafted in. It looks slack but it looks slack to the point where low pressure would take advantage and there will be of course a lot of cold air trapped in that slack situation, as it can't really move anywhere too quickly. 

 

My guess is that without the Atlantic firing on full blast and jet well to the south this just aids the building of the Greenland High, as it's not actually pressured to go anywhere, and this in turn will fuel the building of more low pressure systems.

 

I believe this happened in 2007, and I suggest there's a higher than even chance it will happen again based on the current synoptics... but I'm not ready to put my faith in High Pressure that is constantly out in FI, and being pushed further back day by day.

Edited April 25, 2013 by SP1986

[mushymanrob]

This is not pessimism or whatever anyone else wants to think but I'm not overly convinced of a high pressure scenario going into May.. I know at the moment there's a lot of people suggesting this to be the case, but in my viewing of the models, it strikes me that there are too many holes to allow the build of pressure into May, for example cut off lows, and little highs popping up everywhere.. in my opinion it's just too messy to allow an organised build of pressure which would allow warmer air to be wafted in. It looks slack but it looks slack to the point where low pressure would take advantage and there will be of course a lot of cold air trapped in that slack situation, as it can't really move anywhere too quickly. 

 

My guess is that without the Atlantic firing on full blast and jet well to the south this just aids the building of the Greenland High, as it's not actually pressured to go anywhere, and this in turn will fuel the building of more low pressure systems.

 

I believe this happened in 2007, and I suggest there's a higher than even chance it will happen again based on the current synoptics... but I'm not ready to put my faith in High Pressure that is constantly out in FI, and being pushed further back day by day.

 

i think you are right to be scepticle, theres no building high 'in the bag', but there are signes that would indicate that its possible. as for the jet fireing south.... youre about a month too early for that :lol: that kicks in in early june!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's disappointing to be losing the warmth of the last few days, but looking at the forecast, it's not too bad.  IMBY in Coventry the forecast is predominently dry over the weekend and into next week.  This sure beats last April!

[Milhouse]

It's disappointing to be losing the warmth of the last few days, but looking at the forecast, it's not too bad.  IMBY in Coventry the forecast is predominently dry over the weekend and into next week.  This sure beats last April!

Indeed it does. I remember thinking at the end of last April that there had only been 2 proper dry and pleasant days all month. The whole of the past 2 weeks have been dry and reasonably pleasant. So whilst both months will be very similar in CET they will be vastly different in how its felt.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Last april there was ony 1 day with a CET >= 10 and 3 with a CET >=9. This year by constrast we had 8 days with CET >= 10, (3 with >=12)

 

Last year there was 1 day with a CET mean <= 4,  This year there was 6 with CET mean <=4. (some chance of 1 more on the weekend if we get low minima).

 

Much more variable temperatures.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree to some extent with what both sides of the argument are saying here.

The model output thread is focused mainly on what the models are showing and there are some good objective posts in there, and not many one-liners, and lots of posting of charts to back up people's opinions, which is all good.

However, there is a general premise in there that we're all after a sustained anticyclonic spell, preferably of the warm dry sunny variety, and aren't particularly interested in other types of weather, so there is bias in that sense, which you're only likely to notice if you are interested in other types of weather and see their occurrence or potential being dismissed as dross or uninteresting.

Thus both sides have a point, but the discussion of what the models are showing is certainly more objective on the whole than it was a couple of months ago.

Edited April 26, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Bobby]

However, there is a general premise in there that we're all after a sustained anticyclonic spell, preferably of the warm dry sunny variety, and aren't particularly interested in other types of weather, so there is bias in that sense, which you're only likely to notice if you are interested in other types of weather and see their occurrence or potential being dismissed as dross or uninteresting

True, it seems the hunt for cold has generally been replaced by the hunt for warm and dry. Seems I was naiive for thinking we'd get unbiased general weather discussion when winter came to an end, should have known better! Although still some good discussion and analysis in there from the usual suspects.