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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Yh we also got to learn we can't just keep binning model runs especially the pub runs as they have 6 more hours of data a classic example of that was last nite. And now the ecm and other models support last nites pub run. Not good because no snow when it looked so promising a few days ago

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I always say GFS is the best, top and most accurate model, ECMWF is not accurate, famous run on 5th Dec '12

 

even in FI I always think GFS is more likely nearer correct than ECMWF

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Looks like HP is gonna be drifting around near us or over the top of us for the foreseeable. Will be pretty chilly. Not sure if it will be a cloudy or sunny high though.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Well at least the models weren't promising snowmegeddon, in which case I can imagine there would be a severe bout of depression on the model thread. As far as I could see the most I could have hoped for in the near FI range would have been near ice days and 'some' snow if i was lucky.

 

Now the autopsies start on which model did best etc etc etc. during this period.. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

By my reckoning it's the 4th day of the weather borefest - dull, cloudy, misty, murk (was a sunny for a while here today).

Stagnant HP setup for next week or so; interupted by tomorrow's rain action.

November, i find, is the most awful month weatherwise.

Yawn!!

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

By my reckoning it's the 4th day of the weather borefest - dull, cloudy, misty, murk (was a sunny for a while here today).Stagnant HP setup for next week or so; interupted by tomorrow's rain action.November, i find, is the most awful month weatherwise.Yawn!!

Beautiful by my reckoning....nice hard frost...bit of fog this morning, locally some winteryness....and all followed up with a beautiful crisp clear day.....hoefully lots more of the same to come

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

I've heard faux cold mentioned in the mod thread for first time in ages. You can roll that up and put that where the sun don't shine please Posted Image

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

Loving the blue skies today.  Brilliant light for taking photos at this time of the year.  More of the same please :)  Can wait patiently for the snow and super low temperatures, as long as the rain holds off..

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Loving the blue skies today. Brilliant light for taking photos at this time of the year. More of the same please :) Can wait patiently for the snow and super low temperatures, as long as the rain holds off..

Yes, lovely sunshine and fresh, cold air. Was outside all day on the allotment and have that 'glow' now :) Hopefully the high pressure will be a sunny one with fog and frost by night.
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Well I've seen enough just recently started out as a Greenland mega block then Scandinavia block then UK block then a sinker into Europe were we didn't want it to end up let's be reminded of October just gone, because December looks like heading the same way.

Remove low pressure to our south and swap that for block we know the outcome even worse the vortex this year is angry and it was so close to something exceptional if you believed the models a week ago.

Ok so we have something more seasonal to come for the next ten days or so perhaps a little sooner will a more zonal set up start to invade.

Funny how solar activity goes threw the roof and the vortex and jet stream get more active.

Anyway I've seen enough to convince me that and colder spell is not likely this side of Christmas got an awfully bad feeling about this winter full stop.

Mind u last winter had the same fail in December.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Well I've seen enough just recently started out as a Greenland mega block then Scandinavia block then UK block then a sinker into Europe were we didn't want it to end up let's be reminded of October just gone, because December looks like heading the same way.Remove low pressure to our south and swap that for block we know the outcome even worse the vortex this year is angry and it was so close to something exceptional if you believed the models a week ago.Ok so we have something more seasonal to come for the next ten days or so perhaps a little sooner will a more zonal set up start to invade.Funny how solar activity goes threw the roof and the vortex and jet stream get more active.Anyway I've seen enough to convince me that and colder spell is not likely this side of Christmas got an awfully bad feeling about this winter full stop.Mind u last winter had the same fail in December.

 

So Winter 13/14 wrote off already just coz Autumn didnt have blizzards and a mega freeze......did this time last year have anything different? no it did not.. how many people were posting winters over etc before December last year? for gods sake its still mid November..if it was mid Feb then yes toys out of the pram but not before winter is even started.....when will people on this site ever learn...

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

So Winter 13/14 wrote off already just coz Autumn didnt have blizzards and a mega freeze......did this time last year have anything different? no it did not.. how many people were posting winters over etc before December last year? for gods sake its still mid November..if it was mid Feb then yes toys out of the pram but not before winter is even started.....when will people on this site ever learn...

Haha, don't waste your breath, there are far too many big children on here that didn't get a big enough slap when needed. You are quite right, it's still Autumn, we have the full 3 MONTHS of winter ahead of us and it's being written off already. I'm sure a zonal December followed by a snowy, freezing January would be more than acceptable to most people on here, who knows anything can happen.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

So Winter 13/14 wrote off already just coz Autumn didnt have blizzards and a mega freeze......did this time last year have anything different? no it did not.. how many people were posting winters over etc before December last year? for gods sake its still mid November..if it was mid Feb then yes toys out of the pram but not before winter is even started.....when will people on this site ever learn...

 

 

of course some folk never learn, or perhaps never give up trying a wind up

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

If I look over a garden fence lookin ahead at rows of fences into the distance from other gardens I might spot some one sitting on one..but I could also miss something right in front of me, under my nose.. I don't see much model output discussion on 24hr time frame, could be some surprises with this cold spell...fact is its not severe away from north high ground but its really only just started? things can change as we move ahead the models change every run so who knows!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

This November is pretty similar to November 1962 in what's been and how the models are shaping it up to end....

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Dec is shaping up to be zonal, cannot expect any cold weather yet, last winter was a typical winter, cold from mid Jan

 

Yes I am writing Dec off, like last year it will be zonal and mild, but Jan to April is when cold setups could happen

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Got a little sleet this morning .It was all I wanted and is all I Got....

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Another desperately poor cold spell. A wafer thin covering of snow yesterday, cold rain, sleet and wind today, more cold rain tomorrow, only 4 hours below freezing and an absolute low of -1C. We got more frost and colder temperatures from the zonality in the first week of the monthPosted Image 
 
 
5C forecast as a min tonight which would be the joint mildest of the month. It's truly laughable. Just like last winter the "mild" spells deliver colder temps than the "cold" spells Posted Image 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

 

Another desperately poor cold spell. A wafer thin covering of snow yesterday, cold rain, sleet and wind today, more cold rain tomorrow, only 4 hours below freezing and an absolute low of -1C. We got more frost and colder temperatures from the zonality in the first week of the monthPosted Image
 
 
5C forecast as a min tonight which would be the joint mildest of the month. It's truly laughable. Just like last winter the "mild" spells deliver colder temps than the "cold" spells Posted Image

 

 

Most would appreciate your wafer thin covering Posted Image

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Ugh, look at this horror show, mild south-westerlies, a powerful vortex, and the high's going to sink. No way back from here:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Ugh, look at this horror show, mild south-westerlies, a powerful vortex, and the high's going to sink. No way back from here:

 

Posted Image

Lol great post. I would take a whole month or two of soggy mild south-westerlies if we could just have one epic prolonged cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

I've seen a few posters in the mod thread talking about needing a zonal reset of the pattern to give a better chance of cold further down the line, do some people never learn! All I can say to those wanting that is, be careful what you wish for!

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