Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO looks good, low dropping down the west, where as GFS has mild uppers coming in from the NW

 

this setup reminds me of 14th Jan 2013, where the shortwave was being modelled differently, and ended up drifting down the E Midlands, meaning just rain and sleet here, snow to the east

[cheese]

Seems like a lot of sour grapes from people who were never going to get any snow in the first place.. lol.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

But GFS and ECMWF look pants for wednesday,

 

Nick F is an expert, he also says milder on wednesday, to me the cold is a one day wonder (apart from on ukmo) then in FI nothing really cold, but welcome relief from the rain

Edited November 16, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looking forward to the upcoming cold spell. Dont need snow to make it a proper cold spell. Very cold frosty nights and cold crisp days are just fine to. Certainly no sign of any mild weather for the foreseeable.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Looking forward to the upcoming cold spell. Dont need snow to make it a proper cold spell. Very cold frosty nights and cold crisp days are just fine to. Certainly no sign of any mild weather for the foreseeable.

 

No way will it be frosty and sunny on wednesday, but would agree great to have frosty days, ECMWF FI potentially good with high pressure, just hope its not a 3C max 3C min, cloudy high

Edited November 16, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Smiler1709]

I don't know why people are obsessed with very cold uppers, during 63 winter the really cold uppers stayed to our northeast. What we had was sustained cold, therefore the cold became entrenched and day by day got colder. Some models are pointing towards a prolonged cool/cold spell, so you never know.......

[Midlands Ice Age]

I don't know why people are obsessed with very cold uppers, during 63 winter the really cold uppers stayed to our northeast. What we had was sustained cold, therefore the cold became entrenched and day by day got colder. Some models are pointing towards a prolonged cool/cold spell, so you never know.......

 

Smiler

 

I was thinking back to 1962 and the run up to the cold spell starting around the middle of December.

If my memory is correct we had  something like 3 - 5 days of an anticyclone anchored to the Northwest of  Scotland after a cool blast from the north. I seem to remember extremely cold minima at night (-8 to -12C)under the high with the daytime temperatures gradually dropping below freezing due to the persistance of the overnight fog.

 

This spell was broken when the high slowly moved to Scandi and lows started to approach from the south west.

The wind started then pulling in the very low temps whhich by then had enveloped most of Europe. 

 

Worth watching and not nessarily bad if the low hangs around the North of Scotland and then moves into Scandi althouh I don't think its happened quite like it since.

 

Just saying....

 

MIA

[Newberryone]

It's unfortunate but one can definitely sense the air of despondency that has undoubtedly descended on the forum tonight. We talk of lowering ones expectations so as to avoid disappointment when charts fail to deliver but with the memories of Dec 09/Jan 10 and Nov /Dec 10 still etched on our minds it's nigh on impossible.

It would seem we need to stop viewing the models through rose tinted glasses and be open if indeed not accepting the fact we're unlikely to witness such an historic weather event again, for that's exactly what it was, HISTORIC with the exception of '47 and '62/63 of course 

[garbagebags]

It's unfortunate but one can definitely sense the air of despondency that has undoubtedly descended on the forum tonight. We talk of lowering ones expectations so as to avoid disappointment when charts fail to deliver but with the memories of Dec 09/Jan 10 and Nov /Dec 10 still etched on our minds it's nigh on impossible.

It would seem we need to stop viewing the models through rose tinted glasses and be open if indeed not accepting the fact we're unlikely to witness such an historic weather event again, for that's exactly what it was, HISTORIC with the exception of '47 and '62/63 of course 

 

Problem is, (well for me anyway). I am pretty sure I'm veiwing the models neutrally. But when for the best part of a week its saying next week will be a freezer. All models agreeing, all runs agreeing. Then suddenly BANG, 4 massive downgrades in a row. It's difficult not to get disappointed. Nothing to do with rose tinted glasses. The models said what they said and then massively downgraded.

[cheese]

It's unfortunate but one can definitely sense the air of despondency that has undoubtedly descended on the forum tonight. We talk of lowering ones expectations so as to avoid disappointment when charts fail to deliver but with the memories of Dec 09/Jan 10 and Nov /Dec 10 still etched on our minds it's nigh on impossible.

It would seem we need to stop viewing the models through rose tinted glasses and be open if indeed not accepting the fact we're unlikely to witness such an historic weather event again, for that's exactly what it was, HISTORIC with the exception of '47 and '62/63 of course 

Why not? Feb 1986 was a subzero CET month and plenty of us were alive to experience both that month and Dec 2010. January 2010 was not exceptionally cold or a historic event - it was just very cold in relation to the generally mild winters preceding it.

Edited November 16, 2013 by cheese

[Mark Parsons]

Problem is, (well for me anyway). I am pretty sure I'm veiwing the models neutrally. But when for the best part of a week its saying next week will be a freezer. All models agreeing, all runs agreeing. Then suddenly BANG, 4 massive downgrades in a row. It's difficult not to get disappointed. Nothing to do with rose tinted glasses. The models said what they said and then massively downgraded.

As they often do! The models throw up solutions 10 days out then when we get in to a reliable time frame we get a watered down version, i'm sure this has been said many times before!!!!!!!

[Newberryone]

Problem is, (well for me anyway). I am pretty sure I'm veiwing the models neutrally. But when for the best part of a week its saying next week will be a freezer. All models agreeing, all runs agreeing. Then suddenly BANG, 4 massive downgrades in a row. It's difficult not to get disappointed. Nothing to do with rose tinted glasses. The models said what they said and then massively downgraded.

Believe me when I say I share both your frustration and disappointment.

[swfc]

Problem is, (well for me anyway). I am pretty sure I'm veiwing the models neutrally. But when for the best part of a week its saying next week will be a freezer. All models agreeing, all runs agreeing. Then suddenly BANG, 4 massive downgrades in a row. It's difficult not to get disappointed. Nothing to do with rose tinted glasses. The models said what they said and then massively downgraded.

If you look at the majority of runs over the last week in most cases a downgrade was always coming.Mid november it is and rare as hens teeth that sustained cold wintry weather sets in.Also barring the newspapers i dont think a Big freeze was ever coming just a cool-cold spell of weather with the chance of wintry showers.I enjoy cold snowy weather and also this site but if the prospect of an outbreak of wintry weather in the forecast vanishes and it causes so much heartache then id be finding something better to do with my life honestly!!!!!

[Scorcher]

LOL , Maybe it is global cooling... European Winters have been getting increasingly Cooler 08/09/and 10 were all very Snowy Winters.

 

Perhaps but you can't overlook some of the very mild winter months we've had in that time. Only two months after that very cold December in 2010 we had a very mild February and the following winter was also very mild overall.

[garbagebags]

Forgive me if this is the wrong place to post but I see a lot of excitement in the models of a potential future Scandi high and Easterly (Even more excitement for that than a greenland high) But am I not right in thinking that an easterly, at this time of year, with the continent the temperature it is, would this do nothing for us in terms of cold and snow? I would think you wouldn't see any snow below mountain tops as the uppers would struggle to get below 0. Surely a Northerly (at this stage) would be much better?

[Bristawl Si]

Well, it's going to get wintry next week across the UK.

Detail of exactly how wintry will be decided at the time by nature, not computer modelled output.

A bit simple i know, but then i am a simple man.

Have a great evening and rest of weekend folks!

[Methuselah]

Well said BB!

[Mokidugway]

Bring on the ice age, my fridge is broke and my beers warm !!!.

[Smiler1709]

I think the admin on the model thread needs a beer, he talks about clogging up the model thread like it's the m25.

[John Badrick]

I can remember many Novembers with snow. Just right for the festive season. Also remember mild Christmas days following. But not in the last 4/5 years

Was a bit disappointed when I realized you were a bloke!!!!

[Jason T]

Bring on the ice age, my fridge is broke and my beers warm !!!.

 

 

Just as well Winter moving in Next Week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Anyone know what's happened to members, kold weather, teits, aaron, mushymanrob, not been for months

[Wilxy]

18z GFS isn't updating!

[Jason T]

Forgive me if this is the wrong place to post but I see a lot of excitement in the models of a potential future Scandi high and Easterly (Even more excitement for that than a greenland high) But am I not right in thinking that an easterly, at this time of year, with the continent the temperature it is, would this do nothing for us in terms of cold and snow? I would think you wouldn't see any snow below mountain tops as the uppers would struggle to get below 0. Surely a Northerly (at this stage) would be much better?

 

Its not the wrong place, GB...Just depends on the set up.... Stay tuned..... You could be about to experience, Winter in full speed ahead.  

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looks to me like FI is within 4 days at the mo. HP dominated yeah but where the HP goes is anyone's guess. Best just to relax and enjoy the luvvly Jubbly cold air.