Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[TonyH]

Length of day determines leaf fall and it varies with species. In my neighbour's garden there is one tree that has lost all its leaves and another which has only just begun to turn. Temperature, frost and sunlight determine the intensity of colours.

But if day length was the only factor leaves would fall off on the same date each year but it varies, for example I have seen most oak trees leafless mid Oct some years whereas this year most Oaks have lost few leaves. Edited November 5, 2013 by TonyH

[I remember Atlantic 252]

'bout time fax charts were updated on meteociel!

[Mapantz]

I fancied making this post in here due to the fact that it's kicking off about the 12Z/00Z vs the 06Z/18Z in the model discussion thread  again... I thought i'd do a search and found an interesting post on americanwx.com by someone who works for NCEP, the post was quite something actually, although i cannot post anything from it or the link (you'll have to search for it) It basically says, there is not much difference between all 4 model runs Anybody saying 'ignore the 06Z and 18Z' really should read the post so they can stop using that annoying line. 

[Yarmy]

MOD thread is ramping beyond all reason. Good fun though. :-)

[A.J]

I fancied making this post in here due to the fact that it's kicking off about the 12Z/00Z vs the 06Z/18Z in the model discussion thread  again... I thought i'd do a search and found an interesting post on americanwx.com by someone who works for NCEP, the post was quite something actually, although i cannot post anything from it or the link (you'll have to search for it) It basically says, there is not much difference between all 4 model runs Anybody saying 'ignore the 06Z and 18Z' really should read the post so they can stop using that annoying line. 

by all means, post it in the MOD thread....it's about time the urban legend and self serving nonsense about the variances of the 4 daily runs are finally put to bed....As Nick L posted earlier, the verification stats don't lie, yet there are folk who will always spin the model output to suit their own preferences, we see it every winter and it's frankly growing very stale in my opinion

[garbagebags]

We are going into the freezer next week.

[Interitus]

by all means, post it in the MOD thread....it's about time the urban legend and self serving nonsense about the variances of the 4 daily runs are finally put to bed....As Nick L posted earlier, the verification stats don't lie, yet there are folk who will always spin the model output to suit their own preferences, we see it every winter and it's frankly growing very stale in my opinion

 

Here is a powerpoint presentation by NCEP a year ago examining precisely the cycle differences - https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fexper%2Fnova%2Fmodel-review%2Fday%25201%2F06_FYang_GFS4cycle.pptx&ei=cxCCUo-dLqSS0QXh-4D4Dg&usg=AFQjCNGBObt9zrh-OI7gY5CO9A_jlPvEzw&sig2=NdQDoQYH1vNp0GDlzec5QQ&cad=rjt

On average the 06z tends to be worse, it is thought it maybe a result of 10% less conventional (ie not satellite) observation data input, primarily aviation reports (ACARS).

 

However, the differences in performance are tiny, much less than between different NWP models.

 

But this is the average - it isn't always the case for every run or for every parameter or for every lead time - the cycle stats are available here -

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/

 

Sometimes the 06z will perform the best, and the 0z the worst, and there is absolutely no way of knowing if a particular run is 'good or bad' (and the differences are small anyway).

To disregard runs based upon preconceived notions is misinformed bordering on idiotic.

[A.J]

Here is a powerpoint presentation by NCEP a year ago examining precisely the cycle differences - https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fexper%2Fnova%2Fmodel-review%2Fday%25201%2F06_FYang_GFS4cycle.pptx&ei=cxCCUo-dLqSS0QXh-4D4Dg&usg=AFQjCNGBObt9zrh-OI7gY5CO9A_jlPvEzw&sig2=NdQDoQYH1vNp0GDlzec5QQ&cad=rjt

On average the 06z tends to be worse, it is thought it maybe a result of 10% less conventional (ie not satellite) observation data input, primarily aviation reports (ACARS).

 

However, the differences in performance are tiny, much less than between different NWP models.

 

But this is the average - it isn't always the case for every run or for every parameter or for every lead time - the cycle stats are available here -

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/

 

Sometimes the 06z will perform the best, and the 0z the worst, and there is absolutely no way of knowing if a particular run is 'good or bad' (and the differences are small anyway).

To disregard runs based upon preconceived notions is misinformed bordering on idiotic.

What a good post!......This should be pinned in the Model Output sub-forums

[alexisj9]

I'm getting fed up with people moaning about the possible coming cold spell, it is late autumn and the cold spell coming up seems to be just right for late autumn early winter. If there is no snow it doesn't mater this early in the season. If it decides to snow anywhere during this possible cold spell that is a bonus.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

^{Since giving up looking at the GFS a few months ago i have found my inner peace multiply by 100% and my model watching mood swings reduced to zero . I urge everyone to just look at the UKMO and ECM model runs  the GFS really isn't worth the time of day hence why the meto pro's do not use it for forecasting.}

[Interitus]

In a follow-up regarding the worth of the GFS 06Z, of course I missed an obvious and perhaps killer point - by the time the 06Z rolls out, the 00Z is already 6 hours out of date and then if the runs are compared for the same end time e.g. the 120hrs of the 00Z with the 114hrs of the 06Z - the later run is more accurate, and NCEP published another powerpoint to prove it, subtitled "Justification for the 06Z and 18Z runs" -

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pptx

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

So the first proper cold spell is on according to the latest models. That must also mean that the first tantrums and dummy spitting will surely follow close behind. Can't see any snow getting all the way down south though. Will be cold but nothing exceptional based on latest model runs.

Edited November 13, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[hec1]

So the first proper cold spell is on according to the latest models. That must also mean that the first tantrums and dummy spitting will surely follow close behind. Can't see any snow getting all the way down south though. Will be cold but nothing exceptional based on latest model runs.

lol

[starstream]

It seems to have gone v quiet in the mad mod thread (you know where I mean)

Now has all hope of cold evaporated a la THAT ECM?

Or,has the zero tolerance keep on topic approach,ensured only a handful of posters left?

[DAVID SNOW]

It seems to have gone v quiet in the mad mod thread (you know where I mean)

Now has all hope of cold evaporated a la THAT ECM?

Or,has the zero tolerance keep on topic approach,ensured only a handful of posters left?

 

The GFS 18Z is just starting to come out, there be your answer

[swfc]

It seems to have gone v quiet in the mad mod thread (you know where I mean)Now has all hope of cold evaporated a la THAT ECM?Or,has the zero tolerance keep on topic approach,ensured only a handful of posters left?

Look at the nh charts mate esp on the ecm you talk about.Its mid november and temps will fall next week with frosts and the chance of a few snow showers!Not bad for november plus the chance is even on that ecm the high will move towards greenland and the real cold sweeps in.The thread is basiclly for discussing the output and the models and how thy are evolving so yes the one liners dont go down well.That said its a good place to learn ete

[Average Joe]

So the first proper cold spell is on according to the latest models. That must also mean that the first tantrums and dummy spitting will surely follow close behind. Can't see any snow getting all the way down south though. Will be cold but nothing exceptional based on latest model runs.

Thanks for a level headed post! For those tryuing to get their head around what's likely to happen it's appreciated!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Exciting times in the model thread.  The winter season is still 17 days away and already things are forming in the models of a distinctly chillier nature as we head into the final stages of what has been a mild autumn.

 

[ramp]Too early to say if we are in for a repeat of the end of November 2010, but we'll have a better idea by the weekend if we are![/ramp]

Edited November 14, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Some good tweets from Ian F in regards to nowhere immune from ice, sleet or snow next week and general consenus is for colder conditions to persist into days 10-15 considered most likely outcome

Edited November 14, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[AWD]

Some good tweets from Ian F in regards to nowhere immune from ice, sleet or snow next week and general consenus is for colder conditions to persist into days 10-15 considered most likely outcome

But then we have;"@_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"from Chris Fawkes, so perhaps a large spread of uncertainty in the longer term for now?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

But then we have;"@_chrisfawkes: not the same as 2010 so I think quite a short lived cold snap next week with Atlantic re exerting it's influence late Nov"from Chris Fawkes, so perhaps a large spread of uncertainty in the longer term for now?

Yeah perhaps the only thing certain is un-certantity

[Tony27]

it annoys me when people slate the GFS, i bet people will be hoping tonight's ECM follows the GFS but they will probably still say ECM got next week's cold spell right and the GFS is pointless to look at

[UV-RAY]

The silly season is now well and truly upon us, already some posters are positioning their toys in preparation for the usual throwing of them. Why oh why do people follow each individual model run as though it was set in stone then either rejoice or despair  at the outcome.

[weatherguy]

I think it may be time to dust off my ramp 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Love the mentalness of the mod thread. All the drama and tears and argueing is almost as good as the snow itself.