Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Methuselah]

A very unsettled signal for Autumn being picked up by all the long range models, September looks a write off for any warmth if they are indeed proven correct.

Would they be the same models that were picking up signals for another summer like last year's? I doubt anyone can do anything more than guess, at this range...

[Bristawl Si]

A very unsettled signal for Autumn being picked up by all the long range models, September looks a write off for any warmth if they are indeed proven correct.

LOL!

[Summer Sun]

Roger J Smith has done some early preliminary model research and his early thoughts are for a mild winter this time round with just one cold mid January

 

No worries, at least we tried to fix it up. I ran the winter 2013-14 part of my research model after spending a couple of hours checking out the input (if a column in the excel file ends the factor stops chipping into the overall model). The output looks milder than any winter since 2008 anyway, but there is a cold spell in mid-January. Otherwise most of the season looks rather mild. Will do a lot more work on this forecast before October, so that's just a very preliminary thought about winter 2013-14. Posted elsewhere my thoughts on the autumn ahead.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2740758

 

As for Autumn has has these thought's

 

By September I'm seeing evidence for a fast zonal flow pattern and temperatures closer to normal although the climatology of hot summers favours a warm September. The compromise might be something like a +1 anomaly overall with near normal rainfall and a fairly high probability of one windy event of tropical origins perhaps. The output shows a cold spell in early October that would likely be a northerly associated with a brief Greenland high regime, then a rather lengthy Indian summer period in later October and first half of November. Winter LRF will be announced no earlier than late September and possibly mid-October, considerable work required to update the current model output beyond mid-November.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2737865

 

The Indian Summer parts sounds nice

 

Edited July 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

They seem to change every few days, someone the other day was talking a signal for a warm September/October. The models are pretty much useless 2 months out IMO.

More like 2 weeks out!

[Tony27]

More like 2 weeks out!

or even one day out, was forecast 26c yesterday, only 21c here

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Its a grey and gloomy summers day here temp a balmy 16c ive had to shut my windows rotten for late july really pretty pants lol

[UV-RAY]

Would they be the same models that were picking up signals for another summer like last year's? I doubt anyone can do anything more than guess, at this range...

Actually Pete the CFSV2 model has done another good job with this summers overall synoptic pattern, also people tend not to take any notice of them when it shows them what they don't want Lol. Edited July 21, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[UV-RAY]

Roger J Smith has done some early preliminary model research and his early thoughts are for a mild winter this time round with just one cold mid January

 

No worries, at least we tried to fix it up. I ran the winter 2013-14 part of my research model after spending a couple of hours checking out the input (if a column in the excel file ends the factor stops chipping into the overall model). The output looks milder than any winter since 2008 anyway, but there is a cold spell in mid-January. Otherwise most of the season looks rather mild. Will do a lot more work on this forecast before October, so that's just a very preliminary thought about winter 2013-14. Posted elsewhere my thoughts on the autumn ahead.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2740758

 

As for Autumn has has these thought's

 

By September I'm seeing evidence for a fast zonal flow pattern and temperatures closer to normal although the climatology of hot summers favours a warm September. The compromise might be something like a +1 anomaly overall with near normal rainfall and a fairly high probability of one windy event of tropical origins perhaps. The output shows a cold spell in early October that would likely be a northerly associated with a brief Greenland high regime, then a rather lengthy Indian summer period in later October and first half of November. Winter LRF will be announced no earlier than late September and possibly mid-October, considerable work required to update the current model output beyond mid-November.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2737865

 

The Indian Summer parts sounds nice

 

He also said this summer could have shades of 76 and last winter 47 Lol.

[Frosty_wsm]

Its a grey and gloomy summers day here temp a balmy 16c ive had to shut my windows rotten for late july really pretty pants lol

Well that's what you get for living on the east coast with an onshore wind!! Another glorious day here in the west, bit cloudy earlier but had clear blue skies for a while now and it sure feels hot out there

[Barry12]

He also said this summer could have shades of 76 and last winter 47 Lol.

 

Not to forget the snow hurricane last winter!

Edited July 21, 2013 by Barry95

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Well that's what you get for living on the east coast with an onshore wind!! Another glorious day here in the west, bit cloudy earlier but had clear blue skies for a while now and it sure feels hot out there

Us Easterners will get our shot soon for some warmth its only been yesterday and today before that we had 8 glorious days unbroken sunshine

[Milhouse]

Us Easterners will get our shot soon for some warmth its only been yesterday and today before that we had 8 glorious days unbroken sunshine

 

Not looking a bad week for us over here this week with an offshore wind. I wont mind some showers if temperatures are still fairly healthy compared to average. low to mid 20s looking likely.

[Methuselah]

Actually Pete the CFSV2 model has done another good job with this summers overall synoptic pattern, also people tend not to take any notice of them when it shows them what they don't want Lol.

I just don't take any notice of it at all, SI...

[AWD]

I wonder if Draztik is Purga? lol.

[Scorcher]

I wonder if Draztik is Purga? lol.

 

Do you know I thought exactly the same thing lol

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Not looking a bad week for us over here this week with an offshore wind. I wont mind some showers if temperatures are still fairly healthy compared to average. low to mid 20s looking likely.

Thats the best thing ive heard for ages "offshore wind"

[UV-RAY]

I just don't take any notice of it at all, SI...

Best way Pete although I do rate the CFS V2. Lets be be honest though model or man, both are hopeless at LRF.

[Summer Sun]

I wonder if Draztik is Purga? lol.

 

Draztik's location is different to Purga's but that means nothing

[Average Joe]

I wonder if Draztik is Purga? lol.

No, I believe Purga and his Epicly cold uppers are very much a unique species...

[Captain Shortwave]

I wonder if Draztik is Purga? lol.

Nah if I recall purga's posts were a little more light hearted (well there were extensive abuse of the netweather emoticon toolbar).

This man wants summer 2012 all over again and is a very very bad man 

[mushymanrob]

the heats gone to some posters heads this evening, its like winter with over optimistic ramping going on...

[Tony27]

what happened to publius enigma? 

[cheese]

Bugger off, you ugly stratus crap! Nobody loves you! Get lost!

 

Edited July 22, 2013 by cheese

[Captain Shortwave]

What a difference a shift in wind direction makes. This is why I always wanted to see charts with continental East/South Easterlies, not a cloud in the sky here.

Feel sorry for those up the coast though.

[Frank Trough]

what happened to publius enigma? 

 

I was wondering that. No sign of him at all despite numerous chances to have written off this summer. I satisfied myself with the thought that he'd probably been arrested by performing some bizarre, naked, druid rain dance during late May.