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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

been lovely here , a few nice sunny days little rain  and temps hitting 22c today . 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Well at least the latest met office extended musings read good for better weather eventually so hopefully downgrades will stop lol.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

heatwave? what heatwave?

 

huh... this week supposed to have been dry and pleasant with temps in the mid - low 20'sc.. not happened, its much wetter then we were promised, and cooler.

 

the premature excitement reared its ugly head yet again when the main two suggested an fi heatwave. then it was delayed, now its unlikely to happen as the ecm jumped ship .

 

at least its not as bad as last summer, but below average isnt that much better. still not got the pool up, still only had 1 bbq, max temp still not breached 23c, we are still looking to fi for anything hot because thats where the heat is.... in fi.

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Absolute garbage, as usual last minute big fat downgrades to effect 'Sunny Shropshire's' weather whilst the rest of the Midlands basks in the warmth this weekend, that front which was meant to scrape across Scotland and Northern Ireland now suddenly is going to manage to bring grey skies tommorow afternoon here and 18c after being forecast 21/22c and sunny all week, and as for Sunday, well 23c, next laugh please, blatantly going to be a stratocumulus fest here with a wind direction like that. 

 

So done with this summer, and as for next weekend's heatwave, downgradezilla's on the way, the ECM's woke up to it already.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Plenty of time yet for hot/warm settled weather, I don't usually give up on the thought until mid August. But I agree with Mushy with having another below average summer, which has been the main theme for the last few years. And month's...

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

Absolute garbage, as usual last minute big fat downgrades to effect 'Sunny Shropshire's' weather whilst the rest of the Midlands basks in the warmth this weekend, that front which was meant to scrape across Scotland and Northern Ireland now suddenly is going to manage to bring grey skies tommorow afternoon here and 18c after being forecast 21/22c and sunny all week, and as for Sunday, well 23c, next laugh please, blatantly going to be a stratocumulus fest here with a wind direction like that. 

 

So done with this summer, and as for next weekend's heatwave, downgradezilla's on the way, the ECM's woke up to it already.

why do you always seem to think its just telford that gets slate grey skies and no where else, many places in the south and east including me have had a lot of dull windy crap this summer so far

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Well summer has been good for here so far. Not brilliant but not below average. Hardly anyone complaining over here. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yes, I'm not saying stop posting lovely charts, all I'm saying is stop cherry picking and post ALL options. There hasn't been an occasion this month when all models have agreed on warm and settled future conditions. Yet some have been posting lovely charts for weeks now which have not borne ANY resemblance to the actual weather experienced...all good 'cheering oneself up' but I'm interested in reality and intelligent analysis, not fantasy. If that makes me 'miserable', so be it!

Nobody is cherry picking and you are in no position to preach about balanced posts either, so climb down off your high horse.

Edited by Frosty039
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Nobody is cherry picking and you are in no position to preach about balanced posts either, so climb down off your high horse.

LOL someone's lost their sense of humour!
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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

so are we supposed to be grateful that we will see one warm/hot day in summer now is that how bad its become

 

tuesday wasn't supposed to be wet at all, albeit it wasn't supposed to be very warm either, but wednesday onwards the models were showing nice warm temps, now its back to plain old average and the heat is delayed yet again, so why are people talking about possible heat next weekend as if its gonna happen? no point talking about it till midweek thats if its still showing of course

Edited by Tony27
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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

why do you always seem to think its just telford that gets slate grey skies and no where else, many places in the south and east including me have had a lot of dull windy crap this summer so far

 

actually, i feel sorry for connor in telford today, cos there is blazing hot sun here and its like that everywhere else too including wimbledon, players are suffering in this intense heat, shame that telford is missing out on this weather, which is set to last for 3 weeks

Edited by Tony27
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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Just to cheer things up amongst the incessant doom and moaning in here by the same pessimistic lot, Ian Fergusson on Points West tonight said things could turn decidedly summer like by July!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

IMO those saying all this high pressure etc wont happen in the MOD thread are contributing less to the thread than the rest of us. At least the others are commenting on whats being shown. Most of the day has been spent with the thread clogging up with the same suspects who claim this is all a big hype. They barely BACK UP their comments with charts. Double standards and all that...

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

not really i agree im moaning too much tonight, i had a bad day, but some others are just posting the nice hot happy FI charts, what we need is a totally unbiased poster like gibby 

 

as for double standards i don't see those optimists talking about the crap weather for early next week, so we are all as bad as each other, only the crap weather is in the reliable timeframe and the heat isn't

Edited by Tony27
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin Ireland
  • Location: Dublin Ireland

Is Gibby on holiday? i'm really missing his high quality no nonsense comments, and the biggest loss is Glacier Point, his leaving has created a huge loss of quality, sadly missed.

instead we all have to put up with tony27s constant moaning and bickering

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

not really i agree im moaning too much tonight, i had a bad day, but some others are just posting the nice hot happy FI charts, what we need is a totally unbiased poster like gibby as for double standards i don't see those optimists talking about the crap weather for early next week, so we are all as bad as each other, only the crap weather is in the reliable timeframe and the heat isn't

Thank you!!! Serious amount of hypocrisy going on. Seems like if you disagree with certain people its suddenly a Dynasty style meltdown. I have posted my thoughts on model output without moaning for a couple of weeks now. No I haven't posted charts because a) I'm not sure how to do it and b) I really don't have time!
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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

and C  cos its pointless posting FI charts as they always change, if it was up to me i would only let the models run up to T144 then there would be none of this silly hopecasting every other day, i have no idea why im into the weather when it annoys me 90% of the time

 

i have been on this site for years, just lurking most of the time, and i bite my tongue, but other times people and the weather just get to me, this is the UK there is more reason to be negative/realistic than positive about our weather, when i am positive im usually wrong, when im negative im usually right 

Edited by Tony27
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Plenty of time yet for hot/warm settled weather, I don't usually give up on the thought until mid August. But I agree with Mushy with having another below average summer, which has been the main theme for the last few years. And month's...

 

but if you agree with me then youd agree that statistically a decent hot summer is now unlikely... not impossible, but unlikely... because nearly all decent hot summers have shown their hand by july... only 83 had a complete change (and possibly 91).

 

the point is that so far this spring and summer have been distinctly below average, no mini hot spells (widespread) so as i see it the chances of a decent long hot dry summer is remote.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

and C  cos its pointless posting FI charts as they always change, if it was up to me i would only let the models run up to T144 then there would be none of this silly hopecasting every other day, i have no idea why im into the weather when it annoys me 90% of the time

 

i have been on this site for years, just lurking most of the time, and i bite my tongue, but other times people and the weather just get to me, this is the UK there is more reason to be negative/realistic than positive about our weather, when i am positive im usually wrong, when im negative im usually right 

 

spot on... youve seen newbies moaning that the cherry picked 'positive' chart runs failed to deliver, because too much emphisis is being placed on only the 'best' or 'hottest' charts and are ignoring the less summery options. wheres all these 'mid 20's' temps and sunshine we were promised this week?...

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

a few of my posts in the mod thread have been deleted for no reason, just because i didn't join in with the happy brigade,  i was only urging caution about the heat showing again in FI, and the fact that the nice weather at the start of next week has downgraded what a waste of my evening

 

Edit agree mushy this week was mean;t to be nice too, i ended up with one nice day out of 5

Edited by Tony27
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I can't see anything that reduces the probability of warmer-than-average weather prevailing from now until the end of September...when, even the professional can't do much better than the next 7 days??

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

thats what the GFS says, the bbc 5 dayer has 22c and cloudy for luton and 23c and partly cloudy for london on sunday

 

mini cooler spell? we have had enough of this "mini cool spells" recently, im sick of them, the problem is people are always in denial and never seem to learn there lesson over past downgrades and always live in false hope, i live in realism

 

i think you get an unreasonably rough time here, just because you are (rightly imho) pessimistic.

 

i see the ecm isnt playing the heatwave ball... hence not much posted on it...

 

i really really want a decent hot spell... but i just am far from convinced anything like that is going to happen, its always getting pushed further back in fi... next week was looking nice and settled as that omnipotent azores high was supposed to be ridging in.... now its back to thursday, hold on, next friday...

 

this summers looks like going down as the biggest heat tease ever... always in fi, never in reality.

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

actually, i feel sorry for connor in telford today, cos there is blazing hot sun here and its like that everywhere else too including wimbledon, players are suffering in this intense heat, shame that telford is missing out on this weather, which is set to last for 3 weeks

No need for the sarcasm, I haven't directed my rants at members just fed up of the constant last minute downgrades on the charts which despite the 'forecasts' will serve up a generally overcast weekend here yet again and the fact that this week yet again dissolved into another poor week after looking potentially decent just like next week is now doing.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

i think you get an unreasonably rough time here, just because you are (rightly imho) pessimistic.

 

i see the ecm isnt playing the heatwave ball... hence not much posted on it...

 

 

It's playing the same general ball as the other models, rising pressure and warmer temps after the 5th July, as are it's ensembles (I've already posted operational charts and Summer Sun has just posted the ensembles so won't repeat them here). Detail and whether it is a technical heatwave isn't really worth focusing on at this stage.

 

Why is it right to be pessimistic, surely it's better to hold a more optimistic if neutral view?Anyway this post belongs more in the moaning thread..

Edited by Stormmad26
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