Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[SunnySouthCoast]

Blimey, I've read some rubbish in the model output discussion lately, best start to June for years?! I can honestly say it's probably the coolest start to June I can ever remember! I don't recall having to put a fleece on come 7/8pm in the evening, would expect to be sat out with a bbq and a cool beer at 10pm at this time of year. Sat outside a pub in Norwich today it was chilly in the wind at 2pm.

Now the azores high is going to stay with us all summer apparently 

 

Depends where in the UK you are. Here on the south coast it has been fantastic & we even had the warmest temperature of the year so far on Thursday, with 25.0C at Lee-On-Solent, not cool at all down here

[Summer Sun]

just  looked  could  it  be  our summer  over  after wednesday!!!  looking wet  from then to deep in to fantasy  world  at the  moment!!!

 

Its fairly obvious you haven't looked at the models there is every chance high pressure will re-build later next week especially the further south you are

[Tony27]

it really is pointless looking at these models, as the 500mb charts look very nice and pleasant, but the reality is it has been grim, with slate grey skies, a gusty wind and highs of 13c this weekend, why is it so windy when the isobars don't look that tight at all, its windier now than when we are mean't to be having a supposed deep atlantic depression sometimes

 

best to stick with the bbc graphics for sun and cloud cover, but the temps predictions on there are horrifcally wrong most of the time and are only corrected at about 4 hours notice

Edited June 9, 2013 by Tony27

[Milhouse]

Whether or not we've had a good start to Summer depends on what aspect you look at whether it be temperatures, rainfall or sunshine. Rainfall wise we are doing great with next to no rainfall so far this June. Sunshine totals are also well up on average despite some obvious regional variations. Temperature wise its slightly below average which is down to the below average nighttime minima rather than the daytime maxima.

[Tony27]

it has been a fairly sunny week overall though despite the vile easterly wind and chilly nights, in winter its hard enough to get an easterly that lasts a day let alone a week, 

 

i knew our luck would run out at this weekend though in terms of sunshine as the last few weekends have been nice

Edited June 9, 2013 by Tony27

[johnholmes]

it really is pointless looking at these models, as the 500mb charts look very nice and pleasant, but the reality is it has been grim, with slate grey skies, a gusty wind and highs of 13c this weekend, why is it so windy when the isobars don't look that tight at all, its windier now than when we are mean't to be having a supposed deep atlantic depression sometimes best to stick with the bbc graphics for sun and cloud cover, but the temps predictions on there are horrifcally wrong most of the time and are only corrected at about 4 hours notice

I think you need to take a touch more realistic view Tony and perhaps take a look in the guides area on how to interpret the charts?I really doubt that Luton has had anything like as much wind as during, 'supposed atlantic depressions'?Like other areas not too far, as I am, from the N Sea, it can and does have a major influence on our weather. The best guide is perhaps to look at the 925mb winds on GFS to give an idea where the air is predicted to be coming from. Edited June 9, 2013 by johnholmes

[TobyT]

Well I for one will be glad to see the back of this current setup, although its been mainly dry unlike last years almost constant rain temperatures have been so depressed, I think in this part of Norfolk we have managed 2 days thus far this year to hit the magic 21c the rest of the time it been low teens at best, although I must admit we have had a good few sunny days. I find it hard to keep hearing how great its been, sure in south and west it has been a big improvement on last years deluge but in East Anglia its been a very cold start to the year followed by a cold spring.

[Tony27]

I think you need to take a touch more realistic view Tony and perhaps take a look in the guides area on how to interpret the charts?I really doubt that Luton has had anything like as much wind as during, 'supposed atlantic depressions'?Like other areas not too far, as I am, from the N Sea, it can and does have a major influence on our weather. The best guide is perhaps to look at the 925mb winds on GFS to give an idea where the air is predicted to be coming from.

maybe a slight exaggeration from me about the wind this weekend, but countless times when it is mean't to be wet and windy according to the charts, its just a been a bit damp and breezy here, whilst the charts for this weekend have looked nice on the face of it, the reality was different they are deceptive, you would never think by looking at those upper temps that it would be only 14c here today and the nights especially have been very chilly this week when it was clear, its a good job i checked the min temps forecasted by the GFS otherwise i would have lost some of my tender crops, not one person on the mod thread mentioned the risk of frost or that there will be chilly nights last week, is that down to the fact that nobody thought it would get down to 3 or 4c as the charts looked warm at face value when they saw a big fat high over us with no cold uppers? or did they typically dismiss the GFS min temp predictions as per usual, plus as i said UKMO/BBC has been shocking this week too with temps,

 

either the weather is becoming more unpredictable or forecasting has got worse, i can no longer confidently tell people the weather will be sunny in 2 or 3 days  time like i could do 5 10 years ago, on friday i told someone that monday will be a nice sunny day with highs of 20c, now it looks like being 15c and cloudy, is three days a long time in forecasting? no not really, people on here regard T120 as FI which is 5 days 

Edited June 9, 2013 by Tony27

[ribster]

Depends where in the UK you are. Here on the south coast it has been fantastic & we even had the warmest temperature of the year so far on Thursday, with 25.0C at Lee-On-Solent, not cool at all down here

Indeed saw some  nice pics of the sunshine down south, that's why some should be careful about making statements of how wonderful it's been for everyone. Again, was a dire weekend here, with daytime temps down on what they should be, and dull grey skies.

[tempestwatch]

yeah, back to normal, I think the cricket champions trophy will be wrecked by rain, fancy holding it in the bleedin' uk

Jst in time for Wimbledon too, but what else eh

[Jax]

cloud, cool and breezy again here.

 

anyone tell the weather yet it is summer?

 

(where is that memo?)

[Tony27]

the models are making out it should be a nice pleasant day today, that is far from the truth here and in other parts though, its more akin to late october

[egret]

Yes, as I looked at NW and Meto forecasts for this week. i couldn't help but wince at forecast maxima of 12 and 13 degrees C.

A few years back i recall 10 centigrade at about 7 in the evening at Weymouth quayside and that was New Years Eve! Not the temperatures we have been used to in June but possibly quite normal in a historic.

 

To my ind the link with Solar Cycles does seem to be producing the variation that had been predicted and presumably that too will allow Meteorologists to firm up their understanding of interaction of solar activity with world climate. 

[phil nw.]

It's not just eastern areas that have been affected by the N.Sea cloud in the last few days.here in the heart of the Midlands we have had limited sunshine again today and feeling quite cool with the cloud only now breaking.A couple of days at the end of last week were predominately grey and chilly feeling too.

Anyway the Atlantic influence is now almost here so the cloud now will come from the west instead this week but hopefully with some sunny interludes and warmer feeling air in the mix it wont be too bad here.

For others further west and north possibly not so good though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Jst in time for Wimbledon too, but what else eh

 

I am a wimbledon fan, hoping for a washout on Tuesday 2nd and Wednesday 3rd July! because the scheduling stinks, its womens and mens quarter final days, they put 2 matches on centre court and 2 on court 1, absolutely disgusting for tv viewers can only see 2 of 4 matches, if it rains they will be forced to put all 4 matches on centre, meaning tv viewers can see all matches

 

Tues 02 July, perhaps i should change my user name, bring on a 2 day child of nadine style system, would be great to watch all 4 matches

Edited June 10, 2013 by ihatetherain

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's not just eastern areas that have been affected by the N.Sea cloud in the last few days.here in the heart of the Midlands we have had limited sunshine again today and feeling quite cool with the cloud only now breaking.A couple of days at the end of last week were predominately grey and chilly feeling too.

Anyway the Atlantic influence is now almost here so the cloud now will come from the west instead this week but hopefully with some sunny interludes and warmer feeling air in the mix it wont be too bad here.

For others further west and north possibly not so good though.

Indeed, yesterday morning was cloudy over a large majority of the country according to the Met Office's satellite images although the cloud did break up in many areas during the afternoon.  It seems that north-east Scotland, east and south Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, the Midlands, East Anglia and the eastern Home Counties have been most affected by the low cloud, with the traditionally "haar"-prone zone from Fife down to Tyne & Wear often seeing the low cloud confined to coastal fringes.  My location has mostly been just to the north-west of the banks of cloud and has thus had plenty of sunshine, except for yesterday when it was dull until after 5pm.

 

I'm getting a sense that sunshine totals are likely to be generally below normal during the coming week's changeable regime, though with the exceptions of northern and western Scotland they will probably not be as deficient as they were for most of last year's June.  Wednesday looks like having sunshine mixed with showers in the north and Thursday and Saturday look like producing a fair number of sunny intervals in the southern two-thirds of the country.

[CongletonHeat]

2 weeks of rubbish coming up it seems.

[Tony27]

just got back and seen the 06z, groundhog day springs to mind, hoping for a better 12z

[marky810]

Both the BBC and Met Office have temps dropping during the day tomorrow for some parts of the NW!

Edited June 12, 2013 by marky810

[Evening thunder]

Aaand now instead of a possible interesting warm/thundery plume next week, an autumnal low is shown instead oh well cheers models for briefly letting us think that perhaps we could still get warm/hot thundery plumes these days.. 

 

The Abores high is once again ruining chances of both warm/thundery interesting weather and summery weather, directing cool unsettled weather from the NW over us once again..

Edited June 12, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Tony27]

shock horror the mini plume has vanished and replaced by bog standard rubbish northwesterlies, its the opposite to winter when northerlies are replaced by southwesterlies, it seems harder to get heat waves now than it is snow

[stainesbloke]

shock horror the mini plume has vanished and replaced by bog standard rubbish northwesterlies, its the opposite to winter when northerlies are replaced by southwesterlies, it seems harder to get heat waves now than it is snow

Yes, quite dire, so bored of this crap summer weather! We used to get heat waves, plumes, storms plus this sort of weather. Now it's just crap the whole year chasing the odd nice day. Thank God I'm lucky enough to be buying a flat in Spain )

[NeilN]

Something seriously wrong with our weather here.

 

I think the odd nice spell is the best we can realistically hope for.

[AWD]

I can see the MOD thread being a rather quiet place for the foreseeable future. Doesn't get much worse than this if it's warmth/heat/prolonged sunshine that you want;

Jet Stream riding over the top of the Azores High and slap bang into the UK. Bar a day or two here and there inbetween the frequent depressions, there will be little to no chance of the Azores High getting any closer to the UK.

Sorry guys but the UK is remaining on the unsettled and cool side of the Jet Stream for the foreseeable, bar a day or two here and there.

Edited June 13, 2013 by AWD

[Alex]

Terrible outputs this morning along with rubbish teleconnections (MJO , weak AAM) this is turning out to be a great summer - not!

It seems so hard these days to get a decent couple of weeks though I bet when winter comes we get snow and cold as per the last few years.

Fed up already!