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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

RANT:

SO fed up of this garbage weather, is it SO hard to get a warm and sunny day, even Friday is now downgrading and just watch I guarantee you that front will end up even further east bringing slate grey skies over Shropshire the entire day whilst everywhere else is bathed in sunshine, enough is enough already, pouring with rain yet again at the moment, oh and next week is now turning to absolute cack to, it's already clear that after a weekend of north westerly winds (which bring sunshine to all but Shropshire which will be sat at 14c with 90% cloudcover all weekend) that the original warm 21-23c spell shown until yesterday will in reality be a case of a shortwave sliding down Monday and then dragging north sea grot in all week with the high pressure migrating to scandinavia typical. End of rant.

Edited by conor123
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Posted
  • Location: LBA West Yorks
  • Location: LBA West Yorks

The last couple of days here have been absolutely foul. Mist, low cloud, continuous rain and a cold northerly with temps barely reaching double figures. I've just watched the local forecast for today, it's still raining right now but they do promise an improvement as the day progresses and apparantly 15c at this time of year is now 'mild'.

I think this summer will be poor again, just the odd reasonable day here and there but I hope I'm wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Looks like the high pressure as usual migrating to far north next week allowing slate grey skies from the east to spill in, ridiculous.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Hopefully the GFS will proove correct and the ECM wrong. Plenty of potential for something very warm on the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Hopefully the GFS will proove correct and the ECM wrong. Plenty of potential for something very warm on the GFS.

Yes, I agree.Some nice early summer heat and humidity creating some strong sunshine and scattered thunderstorms in the second half of next week.
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I don't think this will go down too well in the MOD thread this morning;

post-12721-0-98001400-1370070046_thumb.j

Yellow over Greenland and Green over the UK!

Probably be gone by the 12z but for the next few hours, put your helmets on! ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Slough
  • Location: Slough

Looks like we are about to see a short and poor attempt at a warm spell. I can't see that much sun away from western areas. Nothing that warm, ok to pleasant but that's it.

That said considering what we have had and what I'm certain we will revert to we are going to hand to 'put up' as I can't this poor pattern changing anytime soon.

It's the pesky cloud coming in specially with a high moving off north plus the low out south.

Edited by rmc1987
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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford

Surely we are due a warm spell soon even this settled spell is full of less than impressive temperatures. Me and my garden need some heat!

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

What an absolutely belting start to summer and the rest of this month looks like following suit for most of the month at least, hopefully!

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: LBA West Yorks
  • Location: LBA West Yorks

Very dull and grey all day even 70 miles from the North sea coast.

I see most of NW europe is currently in the mid 20's while it's mid teens for most of blighty!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Not keen on the current model outputs.  I'd be up for a slack sunshine-and-thundery-downpours type of setup after the current anticyclonic spell, but tonight's models are suggesting that the "June Return of the Westerlies" could get going as soon as mid to late next week, and with the jet again further south than usual for the time of year, any such return to mobility is highly likely to result in dull and rainy conditions.  Those of us currently enjoying warmth and sunshine, bar the one-off cloudier blip today, should definitely make the most of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire
  • Location: Ampthill Bedfordshire

these charts are so deceiving, it has been very windy and it has been cold at night, who puts out the bbc website forecasts cos they have been badly wrong with the min temps for days now. it has been down to 4c here for the last few nights when it has been saying 7 or 8c and i have lost a few tomatoes, i think the GFS deserves some credit for the min temps predictions as they have been spot on, but unless you are a gardener i guess you wouldn't notice or care what model has been right with min temp predictions at this time of the year

 

bbc website is on course to be wrong yet again tonight it predicts 7c for my area, it is already down to 7.8c, maybe darren bett does them?

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Wow. Stunning ECM warmth + weekend can only mean one thing.

 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham

Looks as though summer comes to a grinding halt for most of UK on Tuesday.

It could return next weekend but I'm holding out to much hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Looks as though summer comes to a grinding halt for most of UK on Tuesday.It could return next weekend but I'm holding out to much hope.

 

yeah, back to normal, I think the cricket champions trophy will be wrecked by rain, fancy holding it in the bleedin' uk

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Back to normal, as in back to high pressure?

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Back to normal, as in back to high pressure?

 

Posted Image

 

 

0dd one out I feel, even bbc tv weather said unsettled on tuesday from the west

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

0dd one out I feel, even bbc tv weather said unsettled on tuesday from the west

 

Yes thats for sure but Lisa Gallagher on Look North hinted at high pressure returning later on next week.

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

Blimey, I've read some rubbish in the model output discussion lately, best start to June for years?! I can honestly say it's probably the coolest start to June I can ever remember! I don't recall having to put a fleece on come 7/8pm in the evening, would expect to be sat out with a bbq and a cool beer at 10pm at this time of year. Sat outside a pub in Norwich today it was chilly in the wind at 2pm.

Now the azores high is going to stay with us all summer apparently Posted Image

Edited by ribster
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Turning unsettled from Tuesday, but I'm seeing dwindling confidence in a cloudy and wet outlook with some model outputs hinting at the jet tilting SW-NE at our end of the Atlantic and allowing relatively high pressure to prevail over Europe, giving a southerly bias to the mean westerly flow.  Odds are starting to favour a mixed bag for mid to late week, with eastern and southern areas most favoured for drier brighter interludes, rather than a persistently dull wet outlook as per last June.

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Posted
  • Location: Slough
  • Location: Slough

Looks as though summer comes to a grinding halt for most of UK on Tuesday.It could return next weekend but I'm holding out to much hope.

Yes I wouldn't hold out this weekend doesn't look as good as what it did early this week never mind further away! Edited by rmc1987
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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Temps overall look Ok (for the south at least), even during the wet spells.

 

avg 18oC is an OK temp for me.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

yeah, back to normal, I think the cricket champions trophy will be wrecked by rain, fancy holding it in the bleedin' uk

just  looked  could  it  be  our summer  over  after wednesday!!!  looking wet  from then to deep in to fantasy  world  at the  moment!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

just  looked  could  it  be  our summer  over  after wednesday!!!  looking wet  from then to deep in to fantasy  world  at the  moment!!!

 

This is completely false, have you even looked at the models? Can't see a lot of wet weather at all! You've been conspicuous by your absence of late, I take it you're hoping this is the case so you can start your doom-mongering again. 

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