Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Methuselah]

Can't see as to why the Quiet Sun is to 'blame' for a cold spell, unless it's also to 'blame' for the Australian heatwave. How does one account for last year's US heatwave, for that matter?

[UV-RAY]

Can't see as to why the Quiet Sun is to 'blame' for a cold spell, unless it's also to 'blame' for the Australian heatwave. How does one account for last year's US heatwave, for that matter?

Well for that matter last summer arctic ice melt seems even less likely, Lol.

[IanR]

25 % loss of wheat expected on top of the very poor harvest last year , due to wet summer and colder spring, if this change of climate carries on for a few more years there will be disastrous consequences for us all, relying on imports, prices will go through he roof, I thing some need to realise we need warmth at the right times for our food chain. Even imports are not immune from extreme and unusal climate conditions. Food rationing in the future? I think coldies who want extreme cold for most of the year should think about that, or get to the back of the queue when the rationing starts

[UV-RAY]

25 % loss of wheat expected on top of the very poor harvest last year , due to wet summer and colder spring, if this change of climate carries on for a few more years there will be disastrous consequences for us all, relying on imports, prices will go through he roof, I thing some need to realise we need warmth at the right times for our food chain. Even imports are not immune from extreme and unusal climate conditions. Food rationing in the future? I think coldies who want extreme cold for most of the year should think about that, or get to the back of the queue when the rationing starts

It matters not what we wish for as the weather will do exactly what it likes.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd also remind people that this thread is for model related banter, ramping etc, not rows about food importing or whining because some people have a weather preference which doesn't match your own.

Let's not go back through this again please, it's all entirely unrelated in any way to the models too..

As above- it seems that the same circular debate about preferences and impacts is still raging on! We did have a dedicated thread for "cold spell- the impacts" a while ago.

I'm not 100% sure about a warm-up for next weekend because I very much doubt that the UKMO T+144 chart would evolve into a warm southerly within a couple of days, but among the main three models it is currently two against one. The ECMWF version would probably be sunnier and warmer in eastern areas than the GFS version because on the GFS we get a slight easterly component to the flow which would bring greater potential for cool cloudy weather off the North Sea.

[Scorcher]

Can't see as to why the Quiet Sun is to 'blame' for a cold spell, unless it's also to 'blame' for the Australian heatwave. How does one account for last year's US heatwave, for that matter?

Yes I totally agree, it's not as if everywhere is experiencing a cooling, many places quite the opposite as shown in Australia, the US etc. It has also been unusually hot over Eastern Europe for the past few summers.

[Summer Sun]

One of the main things to blame for this cold spell I feel still is the SSW back in January

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I have a mid April birthday and this could be the first year of my life that my parents' hawthorn hedges might not be out by then which would be remarkable.

In a strange way, all this extreme weather may help to convince the powers that be there is something might be awry. Everywhere you go people are talking about this delay to spring. If this carries on it will be difficult to ignore.

On a more positive note, when the warmth does come, the plants will explode into colour which should be spectacular to behold!

Edited April 6, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Guest pjl20101]

Can't understand why people post from the Meteociel site, when in actual fact the wetterzentrale charts are the most correct ones. Baffling.

[Summer Sun]

GFS develops a euro high in FI tonight with only the far north of Scotland missing out on it

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Edited April 6, 2013 by Gavin.

[phil nw.]

Todays daytime temps -around 9 to 10C fairly widely show the influence of the increasing warmth of the Sun as we go further into April.This in spite of cold upper air of -4 to -6C across the UK.

The 850`s don`t always tell the story when the Sun`s out at this time of year.

[Captain Shortwave]

One of the main things to blame for this cold spell I feel still is the SSW back in January

Yeah this put the polar vortex on the back foot for the rest of the winter. I think there was another warming in late February which might have pushed it over the edge. The strat guys will have a better explanation, but I think this is it.

[Summer Sun]

Todays daytime temps -around 9 to 10C fairly widely show the influence of the increasing warmth of the Sun as we go further into April.This in spite of cold upper air of -4 to -6C across the UK.

http://www.meteociel...ECM0-0.GIF?06-0

The 850`s don`t always tell the story when the Sun`s out at this time of year.

Indeed around 10c here in Darlo today out in the Garden it felt like spring with no wind and the ever strengthening sunshine the uppers don't tell the whole story at this time of year

Edited April 6, 2013 by Gavin.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, when in the sun and out of the breeze it was hard to believe that it never got to 10C here today!

[Yarmy]

Indeed around 10c here in Darlo today out in the Garden it felt like spring with no wind and the ever strengthening sunshine the uppers don't tell the whole story at this time of year

I got minor sunburn at Carrow Road today and the thermometer in my car got higher than the 7c showing there!

[Weather-history]

Todays daytime temps -around 9 to 10C fairly widely show the influence of the increasing warmth of the Sun as we go further into April.This in spite of cold upper air of -4 to -6C across the UK.

The 850`s don`t always tell the story when the Sun`s out at this time of year.

They do as soon it goes dark and that is the trouble, the minima are driving the mean down. It could reach 12C at Manchester airport today but because the minimum was so low, the mean will be just 4.0C

[mushymanrob]

Can't understand why people post from the Meteociel site, when in actual fact the wetterzentrale charts are the most correct ones. Baffling.

cos there the coldest...lol or they use vivid pretty blue colours that make it lok colder http://forum.nwstatic.co.uk//public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.png

odd, why i get 4 'likes' this morning when a far better post by 'im dreaming of' gets nowt... proves how useless that like system is

[SP1986]

Those vivid blue colour are hangin' around on the 6z run! Not much chance of warmth based on this run.

Model watching has definitely been a case of chase the rainbow lately, you can see the colours, but there's no pot of gold at the end!

Based on the models, I'm actually mentally preparing myself for a long period of cold, wet weather which I suspect may last for at least weeks. I've taken it on myself to bin the GFS outputs past 144 hours and stick with the ECM/UKMO, which whether we like it or not, are more likely to come to fruition at this stage!

Edited April 7, 2013 by SP1986

[Purga]

cos there the coldest...lol or they use vivid pretty blue colours that make it lok colder

odd, why i get 4 'likes' this morning when a far better post by 'im dreaming of' gets nowt... proves how useless that like system is

It's a bit like if I posted - 'Cor look at those lovely warm uppers getting into the south - springtime is coming folks lovely!!'

Would be a popular post. He, he

PS: I thought you would approve Gavin.

Edited April 7, 2013 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

Its a slow old process but as the week progress less cold air should start to creep further north

Curtsey of Matt Hugo on twitter

This weeks 2m temp anomaly from the 8th to 13th

And next weeks from the 14th to 19th

A definite warming trend its going to be a slow process but its getting there

[ANYWEATHER]

Its a slow old process but as the week progress less cold air should start to creep further north

Curtsey of Matt Hugo on twitter

This weeks 2m temp anomaly from the 8th to 13th

And next weeks from the 14th to 19th

A definite warming trend its going to be a slow process but its getting there

Well ,Youre almost taking over this forum! Anyway the outlook still is rather cold, Still wintry in the Northern half of the UK a little milder but overcast with some rain further south. Turning very unsettled later in the week with all getting windy wet conditions with snow on Northern hills /Mountains....

[mushymanrob]

Those vivid blue colour are hangin' around on the 6z run! Not much chance of warmth based on this run.

Model watching has definitely been a case of chase the rainbow lately, you can see the colours, but there's no pot of gold at the end!

Based on the models, I'm actually mentally preparing myself for a long period of cold, wet weather which I suspect may last for at least weeks. I've taken it on myself to bin the GFS outputs past 144 hours and stick with the ECM/UKMO, which whether we like it or not, are more likely to come to fruition at this stage!

wow... youre grumpier then me! http://forum.nwstatic.co.uk//public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.png

It's a bit like if I posted - 'Cor look at those lovely warm uppers getting into the south - springtime is coming folks lovely!!'

Would be a popular post. He, he

PS: I thought you would approve Gavin.

... and that would be equally as daft!

[Jax]

Well ,Youre almost taking over this forum! Anyway the outlook still is rather cold, Still wintry in the Northern half of the UK a little milder but overcast with some rain further south. Turning very unsettled later in the week with all getting windy wet conditions with snow on Northern hills /Mountains....

If I can turn the heating down further (or even off) then any change to milder/warmer conditions (even if wet) is fine by me.

[Derp Patrol]

Well temperatures are still way way below average. It should be about 15C down here this time of year yet we are still struggling to reach double figures. I am looking forward to the approaching milder weather, the weekend coming and afterwards could see the first 20C of the year finally

[Yarmy]

Crazy GFS in which we get 4 seasons in one run. Sahara heat one week and -12 uppers into Scotland the week after. I suppose it will be newsworthy if it verifies.