Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Bristawl Si]

But this thread is about moans, banter and ramps so is meant to be about venting one's frustrations, yes?

[Evening thunder]

nothing wrong with this weather, sunny, no rain for foreseeable future, great weather for easter, want this pattern to last ages

imagine if we had horrendous 23-25th Sep '12 setup, horrid

if we get a bit later into the season I'd rather that, though maybe with less rain, as there would be more warmth allowing more spring growth.

In fact I was frustrated that I missed any interest from that event like most at home last year, due to being in Surrey when it was just normal rain.

but then, I don't hate the rain.

Though I also think one good aspect of this spell of weather is it is at least sunny at times (unlike others this winter), if there isn't much else interesting for me (very little snow this March here)

On a slightly different note about differing preferences, I don't mind people wishing for and enjoying whatever they want and think they should be able to do so freely, it only annoys me when people suggest I/others shouldn't like a certain type that I do, or that there's something wrong with me liking certain weather types, which seems to happen on here sometimes with some types of weather I like, e.g 'Why would you like this', 'can't understand why anyone would like this', implying you shouldn't like this etc etc.

Or indeed posts that I should like this type and should dislike that type, suggesting their preferences should extend to everyone else.

I haven't actually looked in the main model thread for at least a few days, and by the sound of things I won't be doing so in the near future either!

[starstream]

i keep looking in the mod thread for a consistent theme of 'light at the end of the tunnel'.

it isn't showing at the moment,I'll know when it is by the balanced posters I trust,(some of them are coldies,but fair'ies' if you know what I mean)

I just hope the weather perks up soon,to warmer more varied options.

perhaps we have been so spoiled with warmer late winters and early springs,that's why this winter seems so very long.

you can.understand why pagans needed so many celebrations through the year.......they had to have something to look forward to when times (weather) was so bad.

But if we don't get a break soon......a sacrifice to weather gods might be in order!!!!!

unscientific i know,but suggestions for likely candidates on a postcard please!

Edited March 31, 2013 by starstream

[mushymanrob]

Good grief the gloating in the model thread is making me really angry now! It's all getting too much & really the mods should be stepping in. There's never anything too inflammatory in the individual posts, but the constant feed of cold loving stuff is completely unbalancing the thread. Every poster has to refer to Gavin & anybody who dares to disagree is jumped upon by the mafia, whilst they are now putting up CFS charts for the summer praising another cold wet washout. These people are at the extreme end of extreme & are beginning to ruin this site.

I agree, Davehsug. I've expressed my opinion on the matter too many times to mention, perhaps in ways that are counterproductive. I don't know. I do miss posting in the MOD thread, but the bias and pettiness is simply too much. I know that members have their weather-type preferences; that's absolutely fine. What I dislike, however, is that their preferences are skewing their analysis of the output when coming to post in that thread. Okay, perhaps a very short dose of subjectivity might be good for that part of the forum- I know when I used to post in there, on occasions I would add a short sentence at the end of the post saying that I hope such and such a synoptic "pulls off". But I never let it be the overall theme of my post.

All I'm saying is that the bias and subjectivity has gotten a little out of control in there, so much so that it's resulting in petty conflict.

completely agree with these posts. anybody looking in would think theres nothing but the coldest option on offer... just look how many jumped off the ecm ship yesterday and went on and on about gfs in fi, only for this mornings gfs 00z to have completely dropped the idea of a prolonged cold spell after next weekend.

the only thing there is to discuss with any certainty in the md thread is the detail on the cold thats certain for this week. beyond that it starts to get very uncertain, rapidly, and ALL possibilities from ALL the current runs and recent must be taken into account. cherry picking the favoured, coldest, possibility is just detrimental to the bigger picture, and grossly misleading for those looking for a realistic assesment.

[Bobby]

I agree, Davehsug. I've expressed my opinion on the matter too many times to mention, perhaps in ways that are counterproductive. I don't know. I do miss posting in the MOD thread, but the bias and pettiness is simply too much. I know that members have their weather-type preferences; that's absolutely fine. What I dislike, however, is that their preferences are skewing their analysis of the output when coming to post in that thread. Okay, perhaps a very short dose of subjectivity might be good for that part of the forum- I know when I used to post in there, on occasions I would add a short sentence at the end of the post saying that I hope such and such a synoptic "pulls off". But I never let it be the overall theme of my post.

All I'm saying is that the bias and subjectivity has gotten a little out of control in there, so much so that it's resulting in petty conflict.

Just like to say I also agree, have also made the point many times also so not going on another long ramble, the thread has been ruined this winter which is why I've stopped posting there, I stuck with it for a while but gave up eventually which is a shame for me as I enjoy discussing the models and so on but been ruined this winter, and now Spring.

[mushymanrob]

Just like to say I also agree, have also made the point many times also so not going on another long ramble, the thread has been ruined this winter which is why I've stopped posting there, I stuck with it for a while but gave up eventually which is a shame for me as I enjoy discussing the models and so on but been ruined this winter, and now Spring.

come back when the warmth comes

[Thundery wintry showers]

On a slightly different note about differing preferences, I don't mind people wishing for and enjoying whatever they want and think they should be able to do so freely, it only annoys me when people suggest I/others shouldn't like a certain type that I do, or that there's something wrong with me liking certain weather types, which seems to happen on here sometimes with some types of weather I like, e.g 'Why would you like this', 'can't understand why anyone would like this', implying you shouldn't like this etc etc.

Or indeed posts that I should like this type and should dislike that type, suggesting their preferences should extend to everyone else.

I think you put it rather better than me, and this is the one area where I find the "settled and warm weather only" lot far more annoying than the "cold and snow only" lot. If I enjoy, say, snow in May or sunshine and showers with thunder in July, I quite often meet with responses like the above. Conversely, when I enjoyed the anticyclonic spell of 8-20 February 2008 and the westerlies of late-January 2013, not once did I face a similar response, in spite of the obvious bias towards cold/snow. My theory is that it is because the desire for settled warmth is shared by the majority of the general public, whereas the desire for cold/snow is somewhat less so.

In other areas I am happy to agree that summer is a significantly easier time of year.

Edited March 31, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Paul]

The team do hear what you're saying and certainly in terms of bickering we make a lot of effort to stop it and remove posts which are of that nature. There's clearly a blurry, fine line somewhere between people having a preference for a weather type and analysing the charts with an eye on that preference (which is reasonable imo) to someone just picking out whatever charts may back their hopes/preferences and pummelling people with them whenever an opposing view is given (which is unreasonable). Where that line falls is a judgement call which will be seen differently by those reading so isn't simple to call.

We do offer an alternative model thread which is very underused right now (not sure why really, as it seems there are plenty who are asking for just that), and we do steer people who just want to ramp up whatever weather type into this thread. It's a balancing act and we try to get it right but when it boils down to it the team can only do so much, it's down to all members of the community to look at how they post, how they react to other posts, and to decide which thread is the most relevant one for the post they're making..

[mushymanrob]

The team do hear what you're saying and certainly in terms of bickering we make a lot of effort to stop it and remove posts which are of that nature. There's clearly a blurry, fine line somewhere between people having a preference for a weather type and analysing the charts with an eye on that preference (which is reasonable imo) to someone just picking out whatever charts may back their hopes/preferences and pummelling people with them whenever an opposing view is given (which is unreasonable). Where that line falls is a judgement call which will be seen differently by those reading so isn't simple to call.

We do offer an alternative model thread which is very underused right now (not sure why really, as it seems there are plenty who are asking for just that), and we do steer people who just want to ramp up whatever weather type into this thread. It's a balancing act and we try to get it right but when it boils down to it the team can only do so much, it's down to all members of the community to look at how they post, how they react to other posts, and to decide which thread is the most relevant one for the post they're making..

i must say that for me, i do appreciate the effort the team puts into running this site, id just like to clarify that amongst my more negetive remarks lol .

tbh i think the title of this thread is perhaps not the best.... i mean, what snow ramper (or mild for that matter) want to be known as a ramper? to go nuts? most seem to want to portray themselves as reasonable, knowlegable, members...and theres nothing wrong with that! i think many coldies do ramp without knowing it, unintentionally. hence the need perhaps for a cold/snow titled model thread, plus the 'unbiased' and 'in depth'.

let the winter coldies play their cold spotting game, its certainly popular, just seperate it from those of us who just want unbiased reality.

[johnholmes]

let the winter coldies play their cold spotting game, its certainly popular, just seperate it from those of us who just want unbiased reality.

That as Paul has suggested in his post is the problem. I suspect we all prefer to post in the model thread. Those who favour cold get cross at the mild posters and also the other way round. The other threads are used only lightly and no matter what the team tries this has been the case for a few years. I suspect that the problem will reccur next winter, assuming we do actually get some warmth and sunshine before that! It is a fact that it is the winter period which causes most hassle and upset, be it for the moderators or the general user This is partly because it is very much busier than in summer but it has to be said it is also because even amongst themselves the cold preference folk some unpleasant outbursts with one another at times. Why?

[Methuselah]

But, guys, can we see our-own biases for what they are? Other folks' wants and wishes seem to jump from the screen shouting 'I'm biased!'; maybe ours do too - but only to those who happen not to share them?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

For Gavin, a great ECMWF rain from 8th April, looks like typical Dec weather coming up when this breaks down, low pressure wind, rain and 8C

[Cheshire Freeze]

Conversely, with stronger solar input, there could be a good chance of seeing some 'April showers' type convection. I'm certainly not going to moan at that prospect!

[Guest pjl20101]

Conversely, with stronger solar input, there could be a good chance of seeing some 'April showers' type convection. I'm certainly not going to moan at that prospect!

Lol, love it.

Edited March 31, 2013 by pjl20101

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Horrendous ecmwf 00Z, someone April fooled me? GFS mind you so much better keeping it cold and settled

hope you mild fans dont get flooded homes etc Gavin etc, be careful what you wish for

[Purga]

But, guys, can we see our-own biases for what they are? Other folks' wants and wishes seem to jump from the screen shouting 'I'm biased!'; maybe ours do too - but only to those who happen not to share them?

Of course - it's only those manic mildies who crave average this, mediocre that and pleasant 'the other', that are hopelessly biased.

Any totally objective and clinically scientific person who calmly analyses the weather models and synotic charts knows that we're all heading into a brilliant new ice age which will be totally awesome and will cover the whole of the UK and indeed N hemisphere in 5 mile thick glaciers! In fact every nuance of the weather including hot summery weather and zonal dross is nothing more than a 100% endorsement of the icy future into which we are heading...

[Summer Sun]

If we have to endure a period of milder wetter (April showers) type weather for a few weeks then so be it at least we'll finally get out of winters long icy grip who knows come April we could be dominated by a dry settled month at least now there are increasing signs that its just a matter of time until we see a pattern change

[weatherguy]

Thank God it looks like we might finally be seeing the back of this cold spell after another week or so. Of course we'd usually describe that as the closer end of FI if we were chasing cold, so it's important to bear that in mind, but this pattern surely can't defy spring much longer?

I'm a huge fan of bitter cold and associated snow, but now we're in april and the current impressive uppers simply don't deliver what they would in the depths of winter; be it snow or ice days you're after. It's "pointless cold" right now, so to speak. I certainly want to be able to play cricket comfortably outside soon!

Note: Still not seeing much in the way of genuinely warm conditions, but even if we return to average conditions it will feel a lot warmer than it has done for the past month or so

Edited April 1, 2013 by weatherguy

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So we had the "Hunt for cold" Model discussion earlier in the winter. How about a "Hunt for warmth" thread now? We need all the help we can get!

[Tim Bland]

I don't understand why some people are excited by the prospect of 12c and rain. Today is pleasant , dry and sunny. By the looks of the ECM next week will be wet and windy. At day 10 there is a North westerly feed bringing temps slightly below average with widespread showers and sleet on hills.

[lord stratus]

Based on the Latest NAO its goodbye and good riddance to northern blocking next week

Great if you like wet weather. Those charts showing a rise in temperatures will also bring periods of rain and breezy weather.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I doubt it- I think "hunt for cold" turned out to be a failed experiment and I doubt that "hunt for warmth" would be any different.

[Captain Shortwave]

I don't understand why some people are excited by the prospect of 12c and rain. Today is pleasant , dry and sunny. By the looks of the ECM next week will be wet and windy. At day 10 there is a North westerly feed bringing temps slightly below average with widespread showers and sleet on hills.

This is what irks me a little bit, this celebration of average/just below average and wet and calling the end of this grotty grey easterly. I live by the north sea (quarter of a mile away), and this grotty easterly is producing unbroken sunshine at the moment and the forecast from the bbc shows this until the weekend. I'm liking this weather, sure it's chilly but to be honest it's only chilly now and feels pleasant out of the wind and in the sun.

[Purga]

I don't understand why some people are excited by the prospect of 12c and rain. Today is pleasant , dry and sunny. By the looks of the ECM next week will be wet and windy. At day 10 there is a North westerly feed bringing temps slightly below average with widespread showers and sleet on hills.

Agreed Tim, the current spell has dried out the ground nicely from the quagmire that's been present for ages. There has been a bit of frost and a chilly wind but it's been fresh and invigorating by and large and over recent days sunny and warm out of the wind. Not relishing the idea of a return to cold rain one bit.

ECMF

Hope there's no flooding - again.

[Average Joe]

I don't understand why some people are excited by the prospect of 12c and rain. Today is pleasant , dry and sunny. By the looks of the ECM next week will be wet and windy. At day 10 there is a North westerly feed bringing temps slightly below average with widespread showers and sleet on hills.

Wouldn't disagree about the rain bit, however it's no different to many, many people on here jumping up and down with glee at the prospect of grey skies and snow piling down all day. As a previous poster said, if it means an end to this seemingly never ending cold, then I'll put up with wet & windy for a while until some milder dryness appears.