Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[weather_it_will]

Just imagine if there was ever a blocking pattern where we were locked into warm southerlies with thundery lows forming in the bay of Biscay being thrown up towards us

I would love to be locked into warm weather, just as with extreme cold weather.

Unfortunately we have not had a good hot summer in the UK since 2006, which says to me the chances of warm, let alone hot, and summer in the same sentence are very remote for the UK.

[Bristawl Si]

Just imagine if there was ever a blocking pattern where we were locked into warm southerlies with thundery lows forming in the bay of Biscay being thrown up towards us

Couldnt think of anything worse! Awful sticky conditions with rain - yuk!

Warm, dry and sunny - yes please!

And to all those, over the last couple of days, saying about now and the Easter weekend "it should feel quite pleasant in the sun" -

Don't think so! That wind is biting and the sun is making v little difference.

[Polar Maritime]

Fantastic post TM, you took the words right out of my mouth !

[johnholmes]

yes, although I disagree with his love of such extremes, which might be something to do with me having lived through every winter since 1939!!, I do love his enthusiasm. His posts are never in any way upsetting and I love his obvious enthusiasm for weather in every form and his superb observing record. I would also love to see some kind of thread just with TM slowly posting in his monthly weather reports for his 50 years of observing. He could certainly have my Excel spread sheet if he wished-hint!

But of course I do have his last 10 years or thereabouts in my COL bulletins.

[Chris K]

Couldnt think of anything worse! Awful sticky conditions with rain - yuk!

Warm, dry and sunny - yes please!

And to all those, over the last couple of days, saying about now and the Easter weekend "it should feel quite pleasant in the sun" -

Don't think so! That wind is biting and the sun is making v little difference.

Haha yes that's the downside - the sticky humidity with rain. Was thinking more of the lightning displays we could get to be honest That's if they made it across the channel!

Wouldn't say no to the warm and sunny mind you!

Edited March 29, 2013 by Chris K

[rory o gorman]

GFS keen to shoot up a ridge straight up over us in about a week , possible to build our own heat as polar flow cut off. 11c maxes on saturday in light winds here would be a big improvement indeed . The upward trend continues hopefully .

[Polar Maritime]

yes, although I disagree with his love of such extremes, which might be something to do with me having lived through every winter since 1939!!, I do love his enthusiasm. His posts are never in any way upsetting and I love his obvious enthusiasm for weather in every form and his superb observing record. I would also love to see some kind of thread just with TM slowly posting in his monthly weather reports for his 50 years of observing. He could certainly have my Excel spread sheet if he wished-hint!

But of course I do have his last 10 years or thereabouts in my COL bulletins.

Yes John, TM certainly has a gift with his words, and his 50yr records are outstanding thinking of all the hard work and dedication/perfection involved.

One of the top posters on this site.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well, John, for me it's like this ( although I'm not in the model thread, at least very rarely ).

I'm still looking for snow because the later in the season it gets the more anomalous it is to get any snow (or any protracted severe cold for that matter) and the more anomalous it is on the cold side of the spectrum the better I like it.

The more the weather pushes at the boundaries of current extremes the more I think there just might be a chance that something fundamental has changed and that something beyond what we ever thought was possible might happen.

I spent years of my childhood reading accounts of extreme weather during The Little Ice Age and hoping desperately that I might live through something similar ( some events have come close! ) and nothing has changed since I got old (er ).

I like my weather and climate to be challenging. I can't really identify with those who want the weather to be cosy and safe; for me that's like living in a Stepford Wives like suburbia where all the shops are nice and handy and the pub is a few doors away and nothing short of a volcanic eruption would disrupt the smooth pattern of daily life.

I relish the thought of having to plan ahead and stock up for winter in case I can't get out; I love having to dig out the road everytime there's a good snowfall; I love having to keep an eye on the roof when there's a severe gale; I like the weather to remind me not to take it for granted and to show it some respect.

So, I'll still be looking for snow at the end of May and if we get late frosts and snow showers in June, as in 1975, and my bean row is hanging in black tatters I'll be more pleased that the weather has thrown up such an extreme anomaly than I will be annoyed at the ruination of my gardening efforts.

After all if things have shifted so much it snows in June, who knows it might even snow in July; there might be drifts surviving all summer in the Peak District; there might be a small glacier on Kinder Scout.

Oh dear I'm getting carried away again!

This

[Gadje]

Well, John, for me it's like this ( although I'm not in the model thread, at least very rarely ).

I'm still looking for snow because the later in the season it gets the more anomalous it is to get any snow (or any protracted severe cold for that matter) and the more anomalous it is on the cold side of the spectrum the better I like it.

The more the weather pushes at the boundaries of current extremes the more I think there just might be a chance that something fundamental has changed and that something beyond what we ever thought was possible might happen.

I spent years of my childhood reading accounts of extreme weather during The Little Ice Age and hoping desperately that I might live through something similar ( some events have come close! ) and nothing has changed since I got old (er ).

I like my weather and climate to be challenging. I can't really identify with those who want the weather to be cosy and safe; for me that's like living in a Stepford Wives like suburbia where all the shops are nice and handy and the pub is a few doors away and nothing short of a volcanic eruption would disrupt the smooth pattern of daily life.

I relish the thought of having to plan ahead and stock up for winter in case I can't get out; I love having to dig out the road everytime there's a good snowfall; I love having to keep an eye on the roof when there's a severe gale; I like the weather to remind me not to take it for granted and to show it some respect.

So, I'll still be looking for snow at the end of May and if we get late frosts and snow showers in June, as in 1975, and my bean row is hanging in black tatters I'll be more pleased that the weather has thrown up such an extreme anomaly than I will be annoyed at the ruination of my gardening efforts.

After all if things have shifted so much it snows in June, who knows it might even snow in July; there might be drifts surviving all summer in the Peak District; there might be a small glacier on Kinder Scout.

Oh dear I'm getting carried away again!

Thank you.

Bad weather affects my business. I rely on transport to deliver my goods. Winter can make my life difficult at times yet the difficulty is surmountable but it affects cashflow if not eventual income and it's been close to disaster as in 2010.

I don't care. Every snowy day that happens warms my heart. I remember my childhood 1960-70s and remember the joy of snow and days off school, as a late parent I feel lucky to have been able to share that with my daughter now after the last few UK winters. There is so much more to life than coin. Extreme weather is the stuff that helps blow away the boring and mundane for me. I'm happy so many think the same...I thought I was weird.

[syed2878]

an excelent post tm couldn't agree mor. Although i would like some warmth and to have a sceasonal fiel to things.

[IanR]

I can relate to TM post about extreme conditions giving excitment, it would be boring if the weather followed its 'expected' course, ie, cold in midwinter with snow, mild in spring with tepid sunshine and showers , hot and sunny in mid summer , then gales and rain in autumn, I am finding the cold temperatures this spring interesting, living in these so called warming times its as though nature is sticking two fingers up at the warming trend, just to show its still boss, we can draw our trend graphs but mother nature will say what happens. I also find it intersting when we get exceptional mild in winter, although many on here dont like it , its only the same situation as now...., Just a minute , this is not right , it should be much colder,

But where my real excitment lies is for severe thunderstorms, snow and ice is mundane imo , give me rain and gales, golf ball hail stones and dangerous close lightning bolts any day over some soft powdery cold stuff known as snow. Then the beauty of seeing a distant cumulonimbus on a warm evening at dusk being illuminated with lots of lightning, knowing its heading in my direction, for me, is the ultimate in a weather fix ! . I know the type of weather I like can affect people badly, ie wind damage, flooding due to thunderstorms , etc, but then so does prolonged cold and snow, Its the downside to severe weather, but i suppose we are all being a little selfish when we want to see severe weather and not thinking how much it can affect people.

Edited March 30, 2013 by IanR

[mushymanrob]

How about you stop tarnishing all 'coldies' with the same brush, it's getting very tiring tbh! I'm a coldie, do you see me posting in the mod thread giving gavin stick for looking for warmth in fi charts, in other words I don't need childing thanks. And as for those respected members you talk about, I can guess at one your referring to and I haven't seen him knocking any of gavin's posts, have you??

If somebody wants to continue looking for cold at this time of year then good luck to em, I'd rather have some warmth now but good luck to those who want cold, I haven't got a problem with that although it would appear you and a few others do and if that's the case why don't you just ignore their posts.

... so it doesnt apply to you! its no worse then coldies taring all the non coldies with the same brush...

Well, John, for me it's like this ( although I'm not in the model thread, at least very rarely ).

I'm still looking for snow because the later in the season it gets the more anomalous it is to get any snow (or any protracted severe cold for that matter) and the more anomalous it is on the cold side of the spectrum the better I like it.

The more the weather pushes at the boundaries of current extremes the more I think there just might be a chance that something fundamental has changed and that something beyond what we ever thought was possible might happen.

I spent years of my childhood reading accounts of extreme weather during The Little Ice Age and hoping desperately that I might live through something similar ( some events have come close! ) and nothing has changed since I got old (er ).

I like my weather and climate to be challenging. I can't really identify with those who want the weather to be cosy and safe; for me that's like living in a Stepford Wives like suburbia where all the shops are nice and handy and the pub is a few doors away and nothing short of a volcanic eruption would disrupt the smooth pattern of daily life.

I relish the thought of having to plan ahead and stock up for winter in case I can't get out; I love having to dig out the road everytime there's a good snowfall; I love having to keep an eye on the roof when there's a severe gale; I like the weather to remind me not to take it for granted and to show it some respect.

So, I'll still be looking for snow at the end of May and if we get late frosts and snow showers in June, as in 1975, and my bean row is hanging in black tatters I'll be more pleased that the weather has thrown up such an extreme anomaly than I will be annoyed at the ruination of my gardening efforts.

After all if things have shifted so much it snows in June, who knows it might even snow in July; there might be drifts surviving all summer in the Peak District; there might be a small glacier on Kinder Scout.

Oh dear I'm getting carried away again!

i too like your enthusiasm and elequant posts.... however...

why?

just what will you gain by living through a little ice age? is the abject misery one (or something akin to one), that it would bring to millions be worth it? youre lucky enough to be able to afford such an event, many here cant.

you say you like your weather to be challenging, extreme, does that include heat?

and why, if you really want to experience such extreme cold dont you move to somewhere where it happens, like canada or siberia?... i like the climate here, i like it even if its safe, our climate is wonderful, mixed, varied, and spring is imho THE best time with early warmth, fresh scented air.

[Paul]

Would it not just be simpler for everyone to accept that people can and will have different views, wishes and opinions, and just get on with it.

[Weather-history]

All this talk in the media about snow covered Britain, the UK being colder than this polar region and that Easter will be colder than any Easter since the crucifixion etc, etc, it is actually going to be a pretty decent Easter for a lot of people, weatherwise. I rather this then cloudy, wet and temperatures of 10C

Edited March 30, 2013 by Weather-history

[Polar Maritime]

... so it doesnt apply to you! its no worse then coldies taring all the non coldies with the same brush...

i too like your enthusiasm and elequant posts.... however...

why?

just what will you gain by living through a little ice age? is the abject misery one (or something akin to one), that it would bring to millions be worth it? youre lucky enough to be able to afford such an event, many here cant.

you say you like your weather to be challenging, extreme, does that include heat?

and why, if you really want to experience such extreme cold dont you move to somewhere where it happens, like canada or siberia?... i like the climate here, i like it even if its safe, our climate is wonderful, mixed, varied, and spring is imho THE best time with early warmth, fresh scented air.

I think TM's post sum's that up very well..

There's plenty of extreme weather in this country Mush without having to emigrate, and you don't always have to gain something from something you enjoy.. Only simply, enjoyment. I understand you're business suffers at times like these, but there is more to life than money.

Edited March 30, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

I say, the entire 06Z run looks dire!

[mushymanrob]

I think TM's post sum's that up very well..

There's plenty of extreme weather in this country Mush without having to emigrate, and you don't always have to gain something from something you enjoy.. Only simply, enjoyment. I understand you're business suffers at times like these, but there is more to life than money.

bib, but thats easy to say when you have enough to live on.... i hate chasing the next dollar, but it simply has to be done, looking at pretty snow doesnt pay the bills.

sorry, i dont understand what there is to enjoy or be gained by living cut off under snowdrifts in spring! i just dont understand that bit... i like a good deep snowfall in winter, its all or nothing for me on that...if we have to have it then lets get summut good! but after this horrible weather has passed... what will anyone have to show for it other then larger bills/less money in your pocket? only the wealthy can have that luxury.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

nothing wrong with this weather, sunny, no rain for foreseeable future, great weather for easter, want this pattern to last ages

imagine if we had horrendous 23-25th Sep '12 setup, horrid

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I say, the entire 06Z run looks dire!

Yes if you are a rain fan

[johnholmes]

It is the model banter/moan thread but can we change the record folks?

Some like cold, some like heat, some like neither, some like both. Some have enough money for snow, rain, cold, wind not to worry them, some don't so why not leave it rather than copying other folks posts and saying why they are wrong.

No one in their right mind would wish any harm to anyone else-I hope!, but wishing for one type of weather, within reason, is not knocking anyone merely a difference of preference.

What does niggle me is the IF this IF that after a model run. IF the model went to+xyz the poster suggests it would do this or that-really, and usually the poster has no more scientific understanding it seems than next doors cat judging by their posts over a longish time. The IF only reminds me of my golf If only I hit the ball correctly, blame the ball, the club, the weather, my playing partner for sniggering at my latest cock up but If only is hardly a scientific comment is it?

But that complaint from me about If only re model runs is borne from my scientiific training and a deep understanding of meteorology so is perhaps unfair.

ce la vie is perhaps what we should all practice a bit more of perhaps?

Edited March 30, 2013 by johnholmes

[weather_it_will]

nothing wrong with this weather, sunny, no rain for foreseeable future, great weather for easter

Rain, Sleet and snow here now.

Certainly not sunny at all.

Edited March 30, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[Guest pjl20101]

Its not the same on the model threads without Gavin p as he gives a very unbiased account of what is going on, his work on the model threads and other threads is very appreciated.

[Frosty_wsm]

... so it doesnt apply to you! its no worse then coldies taring all the non coldies with the same brush...

Just to set you straight, I don't go around on this forum tarnishing 'mildies' with any kind of brush!

[Thundery wintry showers]

In this constant mild vs cold bickering I bridge the two groups- I am all up for some warm sunny weather (with or without showers and/or thunderstorms) but at the same time I continue to be on the lookout for those increasingly rare late snowfalls (particularly the setups with unstable northerlies and homegrown convection). Something "normal", provided that it isn't too cloudy, would also be fine.

However, the upcoming outlook doesn't look like satisfying any of those desires- it is noteworthy that even though the models have moved in the direction of a colder and less stable north-easterly the GFS is suggesting very limited convection over both the land and the North Sea. Cold, increasingly windy, and fairly cloudy looks to be the main story as we head through next week, though there are hints of a brighter, more showery, and potentially snowy northerly type in about a week's time. Meanwhile the Easter weekend for once is proving better for outdoor activities than the surrounding weeks, with relatively bright and calm weather.

Edited March 30, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[davehsug]

Good grief the gloating in the model thread is making me really angry now! It's all getting too much & really the mods should be stepping in. There's never anything too inflammatory in the individual posts, but the constant feed of cold loving stuff is completely unbalancing the thread. Every poster has to refer to Gavin & anybody who dares to disagree is jumped upon by the mafia, whilst they are now putting up CFS charts for the summer praising another cold wet washout. These people are at the extreme end of extreme & are beginning to ruin this site.