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Paul

Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

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Opening a fresh model banter/mayhem thread. Please keep it friendly!

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With the current spell of very cold E/NE winds modelled to continue into the first week of April, and after an exceptionally snowy spell ( in this part of the world at least ) with persistent deep lying snow more akin to mid-January, it's time to start searching the record books for precedents.

I've kept records for 50 years and even the previous coldest and snowiest March in 1969 cannot quite compare with this one.There were almost as many days with lying snow in March 1969 and E/NE winds predominated almost throughout the month but the difference lies in the fact that the Atlantic eventually broke through at the end of the month and the snowiest weather was earlier in the month and not on the same scale as currently.

March 1962 has been mentioned but that month was more northerly dominated with an area of high pressure over Greenland or over the British Isles for much of the month; there again the Atlantic broke through on the 26th and the severe weather ended.

March 2013 reminds me of the accounts of some of the Marches in the 1600s and 1700s such as 'snowfalls in March so great that the snow was up to the very top of the walls in early April and the carriages could not pass' from March 1674.

The current synoptics seem to be on the edge of uncharted territory compared to recent decades and it makes you wonder what else might be in store.

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With the current spell of very cold E/NE winds modelled to continue into the first week of April, and after an exceptionally snowy spell ( in this part of the world at least ) with persistent deep lying snow more akin to mid-January, it's time to start searching the record books for precedents.

I've kept records for 50 years and even the previous coldest and snowiest March in 1969 cannot quite compare with this one.There were almost as many days with lying snow in March 1969 and E/NE winds predominated almost throughout the month but the difference lies in the fact that the Atlantic eventually broke through at the end of the month and the snowiest weather was earlier in the month and not on the same scale as currently.

March 1962 has been mentioned but that month was more northerly dominated with an area of high pressure over Greenland or over the British Isles for much of the month; there again the Atlantic broke through on the 26th and the severe weather ended.

March 2013 reminds me of the accounts of some of the Marches in the 1600s and 1700s such as 'snowfalls in March so great that the snow was up to the very top of the walls in early April and the carriages could not pass' from March 1674.

The current synoptics seem to be on the edge of uncharted territory compared to recent decades and it makes you wonder what else might be in store.

what a difference altitude makes.... we had snow in feb 69, early march 69 saw a thaw, but that was halted as three weeks odd of easterly/northeasterly winds dominated. no lying snow but the thick ice on the newt pond i was watching just lay there in a layer beneath a few inches of melt water throughout. that was in breaston, east of derby.

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cant imagine the financial impact on people like me who work outdoors. ill survive this cold, but unless i can enouh money to see me through next winter, i might not have the reserves i have now and go bust.

if im in that predicament, im sure im not alone. businesses will go bust or prices will rise. which ever way you look at this cold, its going to cost all of us.

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cant imagine the financial impact on people like me who work outdoors. ill survive this cold, but unless i can enouh money to see me through next winter, i might not have the reserves i have now and go bust.

sadly you are very right there mushy :-(

we can hope for an exceptionaly 'nice' summer and autumn for those of us that rely on outdoor work,and no financial shocks for those we rely on to spend money.

the knock on effects of bad weather don't end once the sun shines.

if im in that predicament, im sure im not alone. businesses will go bust or prices will rise. which ever way you look at this cold, its going to cost all of us.

sorry.on a phone and my reply is in the middle of your post.

cold fingers trying to work a small touchscreen,another consequence of cold weather? .:-)

Edited by starstream

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a good post from TM with data to back up his post. One certainly has to feel for folk like Mushy and others on here who rely on 'average' weather to get their work done. The one crumb of comfort as I've posted earlier is that, currently, it does look like being a mostly dry spell over the next 2-3 weeks. The Atlantic MAY just about make the far SW at times but there is little indication of it making it much further at the moment.

As TM suggests the synoptics may be into almost uncharted territory for this time of the year. It does also beg the question if everything as it is now was around in the middle of winter just what that would have been like.

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cant imagine the financial impact on people like me who work outdoors. ill survive this cold, but unless i can enouh money to see me through next winter, i might not have the reserves i have now and go bust.

if im in that predicament, im sure im not alone. businesses will go bust or prices will rise. which ever way you look at this cold, its going to cost all of us.

Mushy, can I ask what it is you do for a living?

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The current synoptics seem to be on the edge of uncharted territory compared to recent decades and it makes you wonder what else might be in store.

The return of the Younger Dryas Posted Image

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The return of the Younger Dryas Posted Image

Lake Agassiz is no more though, so without any other huge glacial lakes to freshen the North Atlantic Drift that's not going to happen (and I know you're only joking). What we have i think here is just huge high pressure over the high arctic forcing the cold air south. It's unusual, but it's just weather (imo, of course).

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The weather always balances things out. What about many recent autumns we have had that have been above average. Take autumn 2011 for example,we didnt get much of an autumn that year,it seemed like proper autumnal weather would never arrive,just like it seems this year that spring will never arrive. I would not say no to some spring warmth at this stage but it is interesting to see how long this cold pattern will last.

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It does also beg the question if everything as it is now was around in the middle of winter just what that would have been like.

Colder, but essentially dry down here.

Unusually cold for March, it has been - synoptically unusual but hardly any snow here at all. In fact the Winter 12/13, for me (IMBY), will go down as pretty 'average' really bar slightly colder.

Averages, on a national scale, rarely tell the true-tale for regions (and not just for Weather either).

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Have to be honest im sick and tired of this cold weather. I pay my gas/elec bills quarterly and whilst this does incur a hefty charge in the winter months I get a reprieve during spring, summer. During these past few weeks I haven't had my heating on at all because I simply cannot afford to.

Just add though that the snowfall last Saturday was incredible for my location. Our official weather station 20miles away recorded 26cm of snowfall which is incredible for the time of year. Having spoke to my parents and nearby elderly neighbours they haven't seen anything like this. I still even have a few patches of snow left!

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The model output is garbage, it's far too cold and it will be 20c in 3 weeks because the GFS is showing high pressure near us 384 hours out and is underestimating the temperatures.

Model output, moan and ramp all in a sentence.

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A distinct lack of posts from hard core coldies on the mods thread makes me think that the vast majority have had enough of this horrible cold weather now. Really can't understand why some people are still wanting these miserable conditions in April - being stuck indoors,huge bills etc - I personally can't wait for the opportunity to get out and about and enjoy the warm if spring ever arrives. Still each to their own.

Edited by Isabellesnanny

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Amazing charts for time of year. Can we still get some snow? I sure hope so!

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Mushy, can I ask what it is you do for a living?

well i was a grounds maintenance contractor/domestic gardener. but times change and schools cannot afford me! (lol i work to high standards which were once worth the money, but schools are squeezed so much now and i cant downgrade my work because it makes the contract not worth it as i earn more doing domestic gardens). contracts were cool, drought and frost proof, got my money anyway. but now im almost entirely domestic gardens so im more vunerable to extremes of weather. been self employed for 23 years now, this spell is the most damaging ive endured/enduring!. 90% of my work is lawn mowing, thats the most profitable area so thats where the work is weighted.

Have to be honest im sick and tired of this cold weather. I pay my gas/elec bills quarterly and whilst this does incur a hefty charge in the winter months I get a reprieve during spring, summer. During these past few weeks I haven't had my heating on at all because I simply cannot afford to.

Just add though that the snowfall last Saturday was incredible for my location. Our official weather station 20miles away recorded 26cm of snowfall which is incredible for the time of year. Having spoke to my parents and nearby elderly neighbours they haven't seen anything like this. I still even have a few patches of snow left!

in some ways i guess you are in a similar boat to me, youve only got access to a certain amount of money (dunno what you do btw) and anything costly outside 'the norm' proves to be a problem.

my concerns are that not only am i not earning when i should be, but im eating into my megre reserves, reserves i need to replace if im to get my business through next winter and pay for the inevitable vehicle repairs.

so no, im not happy with the current weather dispite it being pretty much uncharted and unusual. i cant afford the luxury of enjoying this unusual period. its fueling my usual grumpiness, if you hadnt noticed...lol.. and theres a very strong chance that theres no quick return to normal.

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5 degrees below average for this time of year, a nagging cold breeze I wouldn't describe it a pleasant, just merely less unpleasant!

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Lets stop the mild/cold ramping and moaning and think about this one thing.

We have a dry and mostly sunny bank holiday weekend forecast Posted Image

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Kyi0WNg40

Edited by Captain shortwave

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we could probably ignore the charts until monday and they wouldnt have changed. the only question is where exactly the blocking high just to our north will be centred, and its intensity. the option from now until the end of next week appear to be cold and sunny, cold and cloudy, but it looks predominantly dry.

5 degrees below average for this time of year, a nagging cold breeze I wouldn't describe it a pleasant, just merely less unpleasant!

depends upon whether or not you have a nagging breeze :)

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we could probably ignore the charts until monday and they wouldnt have changed. the only question is where exactly the blocking high just to our north will be centred, and its intensity. the option from now until the end of next week appear to be cold and sunny, cold and cloudy, but it looks predominantly dry.

depends upon whether or not you have a nagging breeze Posted Image

No nagging breeze here, just a nagging missus.

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depends upon whether or not you have a nagging breeze Posted Image

I think the Met office forecast actually has the "Feels like" temperature going to the dizzy heights of +1 for me on Sunday for the first time in a week or so. I guess that's something.

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I think the Met office forecast actually has the "Feels like" temperature going to the dizzy heights of +1 for me on Sunday for the first time in a week or so. I guess that's something.

Darlo is down to hit the dizzy heights of 5c on Easter Sunday with some sunshine yes i repeat sunshine for a bank holiday!

The feels like temperature hits 3c

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1364688000

Edited by Gavin.

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Well for me this cold without a chance of snow is just rubbish. I enjoyed last weekend, got our 5cm accumulated and the kids had a play on Sat and Sunday in the snow, but with no sign of any more snow on the horizon, can't say I am loving this except from a statistical record breaking point of view. Off to italy for a couple of weeks. I'll have a chat to the Atlantic lows while I am there about where they really should be at the moment, so hopefully when I am back mid april it will somewhat warmer - potentially wetter weather and perhaps some warm sunshine later on.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot

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I rather feel that if the past week's synoptics had happened in January, with a warmer North Sea and a colder continent, we'd have seen more of a classic "sunshine and snow showers" regime, maybe even on a par with late November/early December 2010. As it stands, the air masses have still been cold enough to generate snow showers over the North Sea, but generally just light flurries and shallow convection. However, it's remarkable enough given the time of year.

A distinct lack of posts from hard core coldies on the mods thread makes me think that the vast majority have had enough of this horrible cold weather now. Really can't understand why some people are still wanting these miserable conditions in April - being stuck indoors,huge bills etc - I personally can't wait for the opportunity to get out and about and enjoy the warm if spring ever arrives. Still each to their own.

In my case, much of it is because the cold pool over the continent is set to gradually recede and so the synoptics that brought snowfalls over the past week will just bring cold dry cloudy conditions if they are repeated in early April. As the season progresses we increasingly need northerlies, or easterlies with a "northerly" source, to bring snowfalls. This morning's UKMO run gives us a north-easterly which could support snow showers but the GFS and ECMWF both put us under a dry and cloudy-looking easterly.

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in some ways i guess you are in a similar boat to me, youve only got access to a certain amount of money (dunno what you do btw) and anything costly outside 'the norm' proves to be a problem.

Confined to being indoors most of the time due to my disabilities. What isn't helping is a government who are targeting the disabled and most vulnerable people in society! Im even thinking of returning home to live with my parents which at the age of 41 isn't ideal.

May of been slightly off topic here!

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