Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[Mucka]

The rest of March looks assured to be cold now though essentially dry for most with showers confined mainly to the East and any frontal incursions from the West looking unlikely away from the far South.

The one saving grace is that sunshine amounts should increase for the West and as the wind drops as we progress through the week it will feel less cold here though the East may not fair quite so well.

Absolutely no sign of Spring though and we will have to wait until April for any sign of average temperatures let alone Spring warmth.

[Yarmy]

The big low in the Atlantic and the block just seem to be sitting staring at each other. The big low sends over a little fella to have a go, but it isn't going to end well for him.

(I don't think I can torture this metaphor anymore, tbh)

[john mac]

12z takes way to long to send it under.

UKMO looks nice.

Fairly widespread snow showers feeding into the east with some instability

[mushymanrob]

For the record your obsession with showing mild in fantasy island throughout the winter months was equally as difficult for people to understand.

gavin was posting what the data was showing, thats perfectly reasonable. when theres no cold on offer during winter the seasonal fans start trying to suggest tenuous cold evolutions, hows that acceptable but gavins mild data isnt?

...and the 12z gfs follows the 06z in as much that next week it expects a nearby high to dominate our weather. the ukmo is having an early april fools joke by suggesting uppers that low, it has no support. but the weekend is still in fi, let alone next week. for now we have a nothingness of bitterly cold winds, atm not much chance of snow or meaningful snow for most.

[Methuselah]

Is the writing on the wall, at last? http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20130325;time=12;ext=384;file=h850t850eu;sess=4f8b64d5226f8679f959b0d3938991cc;

Edited March 25, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is the writing on the wall, at last? http://nwstatic.co.u...59b0d3938991cc;

LOL I've seen it all now, a chart at 12 16 days out, at this rate FI charts will be showing us into winter 2013-2014

UKMO reinvigorates the cold uppers by tapping into that cold pool pushing out of the Arctic. GFS doesn't show us tapping into that at present but the cold pool is there and would only take a slight shift to show a similar evolution to the UKMO. Infact, given Ian F's tweet, I suspect there is support for this evolution behind the scenes.

If anything, we've edged further away from warmth today as the models have picked upon another wedge of heights developing between Scandi and Greenland.

Edited March 25, 2013 by CreweCold

[SE Blizzards]

LOL I've seen it all now, a chart at 12 days out

It's even further out than that! Try 16 days!

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's even further out than that! Try 16 days!

Haha....oh yeah, it's the 25th today!

[frosty ground]

gavin was posting what the data was showing, thats perfectly reasonable. when theres no cold on offer during winter the seasonal fans start trying to suggest tenuous cold evolutions, hows that acceptable but gavins mild data isnt?

...and the 12z gfs follows the 06z in as much that next week it expects a nearby high to dominate our weather. the ukmo is having an early april fools joke by suggesting uppers that low, it has no support. but the weekend is still in fi, let alone next week. for now we have a nothingness of bitterly cold winds, atm not much chance of snow or meaningful snow for most.

You've seen the UKMO Ensembles then?

Tenuous Cold evolutions that turned into cold evolutions within the time period suggested....... Gavin has rightly been posting the Ensembles and has rightly commented on them that they show a gradual warming........ Problem is he's been saying that for the last 3 weeks and we have yet to see it come to pass! Eventually it will. But Gavin is only saying what he sees.

Edited March 25, 2013 by frosty ground

[Summer Sun]

This would be the one occasion when I'd be happy to see the low coming across to the UK as it would introduce something less cold but that doesn't look like it will happen as the high to the north east is too strong and its keeping it back

Still a relaxation in temperatures seems likely now next week for many during next week once the uppers start to rise slightly it should allow temperatures to get to around 6c to 8 or 9c depending on your location the further north you are the cooler it will be but if the wind eases even here it wouldn't feel as cold given what its like today with this raw easterly wind

Just for fun some quite warm uppers get really close to the south coast during the second week of April

Overall not too bad tonight this should hopefully be the last week of the bitter temperatures and during next week we should see them relax and climb slightly still below the seasonal average but I'm sure many would take a range of 6c to 9c after what we've had of late and in and sunny periods with light winds it would feel very pleasant given the time of year

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[john mac]

gavin was posting what the data was showing, thats perfectly reasonable. when theres no cold on offer during winter the seasonal fans start trying to suggest tenuous cold evolutions, hows that acceptable but gavins mild data isnt?

...and the 12z gfs follows the 06z in as much that next week it expects a nearby high to dominate our weather. the ukmo is having an early april fools joke by suggesting uppers that low, it has no support. but the weekend is still in fi, let alone next week. for now we have a nothingness of bitterly cold winds, atm not much chance of snow or meaningful snow for most.

A bit premature mate, the ensembles, the ECM and its ensembles have not come out yet. To be fair this is an evolving situation so there is nothing concrete either way.

[Methuselah]

LOL I've seen it all now, a chart at 12 16 days out, at this rate FI charts will be showing us into winter 2013-2014

UKMO reinvigorates the cold uppers by tapping into that cold pool pushing out of the Arctic. GFS doesn't show us tapping into that at present but the cold pool is there and would only take a slight shift to show a similar evolution to the UKMO. Infact, given Ian F's tweet, I suspect there is support for this evolution behind the scenes.

If anything, we've edged further away from warmth today as the models have picked upon another wedge of heights developing between Scandi and Greenland.

Call it 'desperation' CC...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Call it 'desperation' CC...

Lol to be fair, I wouldn't mind some convective storms and showers now. However I always miss them here anyway so I'm not missing much!

[Captain Shortwave]

Call it 'desperation' CC...

All good looking 2 weeks away, but I'm sure the models will find a spoiler Greenland high before then

[Yarmy]

From this:

to this:

Snow is nice and all that in Winter, but if things don't get warmer soon I'm going to break out the crayons and start drawing on my screen.

[Snowman.]

We at Iceland MET ignore GFS as its regarded as 'useless'. Would be interesting to know how UKMO view the GFS.

Well.

Ian posted a conversation he had with someone about it the said along the lines of it being useless.

[Luke Best]

We at Iceland MET ignore GFS as its regarded as 'useless'. Would be interesting to know how UKMO view the GFS.

According to Ian Fergusson (BBC Weather Presenter) they largely ignore it too.

[mushymanrob]

You've seen the UKMO Ensembles then?

Tenuous Cold evolutions that turned into cold evolutions within the time period suggested....... Gavin has rightly been posting the Ensembles and has rightly commented on them that they show a gradual warming........ Problem is he's been saying that for the last 3 weeks and we have yet to see it come to pass! Eventually it will. But Gavin is only saying what he sees.

nope i havnt seen the ensembles yet... fair comment.

but its not gavins fault they havnt come to reality! in fairness neither he, nor anybody, has ramped up the mild more then what the charts have shown.

A bit premature mate, the ensembles, the ECM and its ensembles have not come out yet. To be fair this is an evolving situation so there is nothing concrete either way.

true, they could go the other way! :lol:...oh hold on, this is the 12z ecm, the coldest of runs!

[LomondSnowstorm]

nope i havnt seen the ensembles yet... fair comment.

but its not gavins fault they havnt come to reality! in fairness neither he, nor anybody, has ramped up the mild more then what the charts have shown.

true, they could go the other way! ...oh hold on, this is the 12z ecm, the coldest of runs!

Ah, but you know how tenuous those mild synoptics are - anything that can go wrong for the mild air will go wrong, appears to be the rule this spring

[Summer Sun]

Short term GFS London ensemble to April 2nd very low precipitation and staying chilly with most members staying below the zero line

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[SE Blizzards]

Short term GFS London ensemble to April 2nd very low precipitation and staying chilly with most members staying below the zero line

A day or 2 ago the mean was close to the zero line on the 29th/30th. A definite trend to continue the cold no doubt about it.

Edited March 25, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[fergieweather]

We at Iceland MET ignore GFS as its regarded as 'useless'. Would be interesting to know how UKMO view the GFS.

You just said it....broadly-speaking.

However, not totally 'ignored' - it is assessed comparatively with other output, as one might rightly expect in a balanced scientific assessment. But anything in GFS output post-T+144 is dismissed.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS ens show the continuation of low heights to the south and higher pressure to the north, pretty much agreeing with the ecm ens. Positioning of the high is still up for debate with runs tending to flip flop between heights over Scandinavia and heights over Iceland.

[Tim Bland]

With recent 12z ECMs being colder than the 00z suite, does anyone know which one is most reliable ?

[Mucka]

We at Iceland MET ignore GFS as its regarded as 'useless'. Would be interesting to know how UKMO view the GFS.

In much the same way apparently.

Talking of GFS I took the liberty of taking a snapshot of the breakdown it promised the other day - sometimes GFS is so wildly progressive it is a bit of a joke frankly.

Here is what the 12z was predicting for the 29th just three days ago compared today's chart for the same time.

And for the SE it had max temp of 13C for the 29th and today it has 5C for the same date.

Best advice is to treat any projected breakdowns from GFS with scepticism unless it has some support from the other models or it will make a fool of you. IT really is poor when it comes to splitting energy that come against a block.

It is still useful for spotting longer term trends though (using the ensembles) but you need to have an eye for separating the wheat from the chaff.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Mucka