Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[phil nw.]

Come on folks lets keep on topic.

The impacts of the weather on daily life are for other parts of the forum.

There`s nothing we can do to change whats coming weather wise it is what it is -model discussion please now.

[SE Blizzards]

Well, it just gone 3pm and the temperature has not risen above freezing all day here, and i'm only 6 miles away from the coastline. Staggering for this to happen in the last week of March.

My feeling is that this Low pressure system in the Atlantic at the end of the week wont be making it to our shores, and its attempt to break down the cold block will end in one big epic fail.

Looks like the cold weather will be lasting for at least the next 10 days, and probably beyond!?

Anyway, onto the 12Z's. Will it be more of the same, or will there be an end in sight to this ongoing, seemingly never ending cold weather?

Edited March 25, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[AWD]

Latest from Ian in the South West thread;

"Latest DECIDER products maintain cold / significantly cold E/NE bias for at least next 10-15 days. Grim."

Getting kind of boring now!

[Captain Shortwave]

I have to admit this set up has all the similar guise of what we got last summer, northern blocking in dominance and any attempt at breaking it down just results in WAA pushing up toward the pole and more blocking establishing.

For snow lovers out there you have to realise the extreme cold we have at the moment won't last and a transfer to a cold showery regime like what we had last summer will happen probably during April as the very cold arctic uppers get exhausted.

Anyone want to do a trading mission to the Azores to hopefully trade some stuff for their warm high pressure cell

[phil nw.]

This week certainly continues to look cold with those uppers between -6 and -10C during the next few days.

I think as we go into April there`s inevitably going to be some moderation of this extreme(for time of year) cold with the increase in both the daily length and intensity of the solar output-even with a similar synoptic pattern.

Having said that a look at the 850hPa ECM mean output for day 10 still shows the UK very much in a below average setup.

but the the ens. graph for 2m London temp. does show that less cold outlook as we go into Easter week.

no great warmth with readings still likely in single figures but the Arctic cold pool starting to retreat and mix out as the season progresses.

A March to remember though it must be said.

[Coast]

Not really any need for this dicussion, going nowhere back to models.

New thread now open for discussing the effects of the continued cold into Spring here:

[TonyH]

The models are continuing with the cold theme athough mainly dry. I am not sure that since the Met Office decided the 1st of March was Spring that this is helping peoples understanding of expected weather at this time of the year. For me Snow/cold in March is 'not unexpected' from the 60's and 70's when i began following the weather -Spring like weather is more unexpected for this time of year. Last year was a 'one off' with the warmth. Do records really show spring like weather in March or is the balance over say the last 50 years more cool or cold?

Indeed, we have had cold, snowy March's before, it snowed on half the days in many areas in March 1979 for example.

[Purga]

Latest from Ian in the South West thread;

"Latest DECIDER products maintain cold / significantly cold E/NE bias for at least next 10-15 days. Grim."

Getting kind of boring now!

Not surprised to hear that. If there is snow to be had then

Would be nice to be able to actually see some of these high spec models such as DECIDER / MOGREPS etc but nontheless extremely grateful to Ian F or whoever for giving us the nod / insights.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

By Thursday lunch time that deep depression in the Atlantic is sitting there but it looks like high pressure from the northern blocking will drift into the UK stopping it moving in and introducing some very wet and windy milder weather

Plenty of milder air is just waiting so close by whether it gets in is all down to the northern blocking and and how south it drifts

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[SomeLikeItHot]

The models are continuing with the cold theme athough mainly dry. I am not sure that since the Met Office decided the 1st of March was Spring that this is helping peoples understanding of expected weather at this time of the year. For me Snow/cold in March is 'not unexpected' from the 60's and 70's when i began following the weather -Spring like weather is more unexpected for this time of year. Last year was a 'one off' with the warmth. Do records really show spring like weather in March or is the balance over say the last 50 years more cool or cold?

Snow in march happens but the prolonged cold?

Look at the March CETs record someone linked to earlier.

We are looking at a likely sub 3 March CET, something that has occurred once in the last 100 years. and about 20 times in 350 years, so fairly exceptional weather. and even more exceptional given the second half of March has been colder than the first.

[shaky]

By Thursday lunch time that deep depression in the Atlantic is sitting there but it looks like high pressure from the northern blocking will drift into the UK stopping it moving in and introducing some very wet and windy milder weather

Plenty of milder air is just waiting so close by whether it gets in is all down to the northern blocking and and how south it drifts

Gav if that cold block moves into the uk how will it bring mild and rainy weather with it?

[john mac]

Latest from Ian in the South West thread;

"Latest DECIDER products maintain cold / significantly cold E/NE bias for at least next 10-15 days. Grim."

Getting kind of boring now!

You'd be saying that if it was raging zonality for that period of time too lol

[Summer Sun]

Gav if that cold block moves into the uk how will it bring mild and rainy weather with it?

Sorry what I meant is if the block gets into the UK it will stop the deep low and milder air getting in

Friday lunch see's that low still sitting in the Atlantic and not making much progress

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows some snow in the SW at 102

That 1020mb high coming over from eastern Europe isn't as close to the UK this afternoon compared to this morning when it extended to northern Scotland

12z left 06z right

By Easter Saturday the low is still in the Atlantic

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[bradymk]

Precip to SW ever so slightly north, 50/60 miles, nothing substantial. Hoping this can be my first proper snow event of winter but I fear it will be too far south

Edited March 25, 2013 by bradythemole

[Lincslad]

If the system catches the far SW, It would potentially only be settling snow to higher ground - say 250m. Dartmoor, Bodmin and Exmoor, rain, sleet or wet snow to low ground and coastlines.

[Snowman.]

Low coming of the main one following the one already over the Channel.

[Purga]

A nascent channel low?

[john mac]

I wonder where that shortwave will go??

[Snowman.]

UKMO also has this feature.

That's going to slide...

[Captain Shortwave]

Great chart

Touchwood hopefully some showers should come of this

[SE Blizzards]

April fools day... With the joke well and truly on spring!!

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO T144

Cold unstable airflow.

[bluearmy]

Great chart

Day 6 even better !

tbh, had we seen this sypnotic period in dec, jan or feb, the economic consequences for the country would be dire indeed.

[Snowman.]

12z takes way to long to send it under.

UKMO looks nice.