Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[Coast]

Post your comments, thoughts and analysis on the current model output here.

Please read through what you are about to post first and make sure that it is topical, adds to the discussion and can be understood / researched by members of all abilities where possible.

[Tim Bland]

^{So does that mean that the other 80% 'chance' is of most of the country remaining under cold uppers with a cold easterly}

^{Clearly becuase if the low / atlantic runs in south of the uk then this continues the cold coming at us from the E / NE. Lets hope that we do get some kind of undercuting low before the cold wanes. As our icleandic friend says the solar input increasing guarantees that it will get warmer and soon to warm for snow, even if the synoptic pattern doesnt change}

[Lincslad]

I suspect very little change on the models over the next day or so, apart from the position of the low pressure on friday. Im most cases these are pushed to the south taking any adverse weather with them. Snow showers across Eastern parts, particularly though tonight, could leave a few cm in Yorks and Lincolnshire.

[Bobd29]

Fax charts will be interesting as this week unfolds. Even now they show just how difficult it is for the deepening LP in the west/mid atlantic thursday to make much inroads eastwards. Couple this with the lower pressure over the whole of western europe down into africa and it seems very likely that the huge atlantic low will migrate southeast and we will get gale force easterlies in southern uk possibly with a snow event if the passage is sufficiently north. What remains very unclear is whether the low will spawn a cut-off that may take a somewhat different path, perhaps more northerly? Certainly to be interesting as it develops.

[Purga]

METO update confirms the cold theme right the way almost to the end of April (23rd) although some uncertaintity remains about details and northern extent of any less cold pushes. In some areas of the UK (not just upland) there has been some snowfall every month since and including October! If we could run that into April that would be 7 months - reminds me of being back in Canada (on a very micro scale of course)!

Great effort for the UK though

[Summer Sun]

METO update confirms the cold theme right the way almost to the end of April (23rd) although some uncertaintity remains about details and northern extent of any less cold pushes. In some areas of the UK (not just upland) there has been some snowfall every month since and including October! If we could run that into April that would be 7 months - reminds me of being back in Canada (on a very micro scale of course)!

Great effort for the UK though

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

The chances of snow in the south later this week are low now at the moment it looks like high pressure will stay over the UK to keep it away in the Atlantic

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[-uksnow-]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

But the problem is, we cant change the weather, its going to do what it will do and most of the excitement of the MOD thread is just chasing synoptics that arent the 'norm', as lets face it, the norm has been pretty dire the last few years, so seeing such depth and length of cold out to the end of March is something thats fascinating to alot of us on here, and if theres no warmth to chase then we may aswell deal with what we have - exceptional late cold!

[SomeLikeItHot]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

Many kinds of weather can be deadly, too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, too foggy etc. Some people will hate some types of weather, some people will like it, but none of them have any control over it (unless someone was out cloud seeding over the weekend! ). You might as well take what pleasure you can out of the weather you get, as me being happy or sad about unseasonable cold isn't going to effect those suffering from it.

Edited March 25, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[The Northern Ramper]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

The chances of snow in the south later this week are low now at the moment it looks like high pressure will stay over the UK to keep it away in the Atlantic

People are here to discuss the weather Gavin not to worry about a social conscience.

For the record your obsession with showing mild in fantasy island throughout the winter months was equally as difficult for people to understand.

[Purga]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

The chances of snow in the south later this week are low now at the moment it looks like high pressure will stay over the UK to keep it away in the Atlantic

Gavin, I think the other posters who have just answered you have more than adequately expressed what is pretty much the same reply as I would have given. Some of us like different or more extreme types of weather, I appreciate your fascination with mild weather the whole time, can't understand it myself but respect your opinion and preferences without listing a whole load of conscience jolting reasons why you shouldn't have such preferences!

just to balance the farming arguement:

Dangers of a Mild Winter

Edited March 25, 2013 by Purga

[andybk]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

The chances of snow in the south later this week are low now at the moment it looks like high pressure will stay over the UK to keep it away in the Atlantic

couldn't agree more , thousands of lambs have been lost in the last few days , crops arnt planted those that are are dying after the wet of winter , and times getting on , the massive increase in the cost of food come late summer , before we even think about heating fuel , might take the edge off any exciting weather event ,

Edited March 25, 2013 by andybk

[Average Joe]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

The chances of snow in the south later this week are low now at the moment it looks like high pressure will stay over the UK to keep it away in the Atlantic

Now, Now.....calm down chaps. Gavin was taking a lot of stick yesterday, so deep breaths all round.

Being the son from a farming family I too know the impact the cold is having on things, BUT, it's here and whilst I personally don't want any more cold and especially snow, then the likes of myself are clearly in the minority. Purga just loves the cold as he's said on a previous comment, and whilst from a purely selfish standpoint don't agree that it's "great" as he says, I'm sure he has just as many reasons for thinking the opposite to me.

[Dean E]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

The chances of snow in the south later this week are low now at the moment it looks like high pressure will stay over the UK to keep it away in the Atlantic

I agree with you there Gavin. No one wants to see cold weather at this time of the year, especially with the economy as fragile as it is at the moment... But we've got to be realistic. Everything happens for a reason and we cannot choose what weather we get. Its just our bad luck that the symnoptics with had this past week, didn't arrive in the winter months instead, when we normally (In the modern climate) expect the cold out breaks.

Clearly we need to find out why Northern Blocking is becoming such a regular occurrence in recent years, but I'm straying off topic!

But the problem is, we cant change the weather, its going to do what it will do and most of the excitement of the MOD thread is just chasing synoptics that arent the 'norm', as lets face it, the norm has been pretty dire the last few years, so seeing such depth and length of cold out to the end of March is something thats fascinating to alot of us on here, and if theres no warmth to chase then we may aswell deal with what we have - exceptional late cold!

That sums up my thinking, so agree with you there uksnow!

To see charts like that in winter is brilliant, but March?! Its just extraordinary!

SM

[Mr Frost]

Hayzus christy! I thought this was the model output discussion! Instead I have entered a whining Bill Oddie loving/Farmers club/Beechgrove garden tribute page.

If anyone here is concerned about all the above I suggest you take up another hobby.

[Cakie]

Boys, please can we just stick to discussing the weather in here. I do understand the affect this can have to people's livelihoods and the knock on effect this will have on us all but weather talk please.

If you wish, we can open up another thread to discuss the social/economic effect of this cold winter.

And breathe.......

[Methuselah]

Can we please get back to discussing the models?? Pretty please?

[The PIT]

ECM has spring arriving in early April GFS says not. Met office may leaning towards the GFS idea which shows little or no push into the UK over this coming weekend judging by the lunchtime forecast of a cold mostly dry Easter weekend.

[AWD]

ECM has spring arriving in early April GFS says not. Met office may leaning towards the GFS idea which shows little or no push into the UK over this coming weekend judging by the lunchtime forecast of a cold mostly dry Easter weekend.

ECM Det looks too quick in bringing in the less cold air compared to its ensemble members;

Mean 850hpa spread shows the 0c Isotherm still way south of the UK at 240 hours, compared to the Det which has it touching Scotland;

So whilst the ECM Det could be barking up the right tree regarding the broad synoptic trend, it looks too progressive with the pattern compared to its ensemble spread. A slower transition to less cold and eventually mild through the first half of April maybe?

[Troubleatmill]

Now, Now.....calm down chaps. Gavin was taking a lot of stick yesterday, so deep breaths all round.

Being the son from a farming family I too know the impact the cold is having on things, BUT, it's here and whilst I personally don't want any more cold and especially snow, then the likes of myself are clearly in the minority. Purga just loves the cold as he's said on a previous comment, and whilst from a purely selfish standpoint don't agree that it's "great" as he says, I'm sure he has just as many reasons for thinking the opposite to me.

Think its more that we all (or majority) like extremes, hot or cold, and at this time of year we dont get either as rule of thumb, hence each year the mod forum goes quieter and quieter until the heat lovers come out or people who like both wait for the sun to get raging.

Personally i find this kind of cold a bit like an Xmas party after Xmas, best before or during than after! but maybe better than no party at all.

It will get warm, its a guarantee, kind of looking forward to the shock of feeling that heat from the sun on my face that we could already be feeling and normally will of done by now most years, plants, birds, anaimals or humans

It looks like there will be no rapid warm up looking at the ensembles but rather a more gradual (canada style) drag into spring, which doeas make a change from the Norm.

Edited March 25, 2013 by tempestas

[john mac]

Sorry but I don't get this fascination of yours for cold so late into Spring do you not give any thought to wildlife, farmers, the economy just think how many animals are getting killed by this cold farmers have had it tough enough over the past year this is the last thing they need

A post from chionomaniac in the stratosphere thread suggests the could could turn a lot warmer, drier and more settled as April progresses

The chances of snow in the south later this week are low now at the moment it looks like high pressure will stay over the UK to keep it away in the Atlantic

Sorry mods, off topic but

But there are obviously many people here who live in a very cushioned environment who obviously don't consider the "real" world when drooling over cold charts. Gavin isn't trying to be a social concience, I think he's just reflecting what some others here already think

Cold in winter -- fine

Cold in Spring -- would prefer "Springlike" weather

Not really any need for this dicussion, going nowhere back to models.

The charts are showing cold air entrenched for the forseable future, chance of some less cold air trying to push into the south over the weekend, but as i said earlier its far to early to call.

[-uksnow-]

Icelandic MET going for the friday low to drop into France missing the UK - based on their EVac model.

Is that based on this graphic?

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

As thats the ECM.

[Betleyblizud]

The models are continuing with the cold theme athough mainly dry. I am not sure that since the Met Office decided the 1st of March was Spring that this is helping peoples understanding of expected weather at this time of the year. For me Snow/cold in March is 'not unexpected' from the 60's and 70's when i began following the weather -Spring like weather is more unexpected for this time of year. Last year was a 'one off' with the warmth. Do records really show spring like weather in March or is the balance over say the last 50 years more cool or cold?

[Yarmy]

The models are continuing with the cold theme athough mainly dry. I am not sure that since the Met Office decided the 1st of March was Spring that this is helping peoples understanding of expected weather at this time of the year. For me Snow/cold in March is 'not unexpected' from the 60's and 70's when i began following the weather -Spring like weather is more unexpected for this time of year. Last year was a 'one off' with the warmth. Do records really show spring like weather in March or is the balance over say the last 50 years more cool or cold?

Gradual warming trend underlying the usual weather noise. See the chart BornFromTheVoid posted in the March CET thread.

http://forum.netweat...et-competition/

Edit: (Cheers, Gavin!)

Edited March 25, 2013 by Yarmy

[Summer Sun]

Gradual warming trend underlying the usual weather noise. See the chart BornFromTheVoid posted in the March CET thread.

http://forum.netweat...et-competition/

(Is it possible to link to an individual post?)

Yes click the number on the right its the one which shows #28 #328 ect click that then copy the link at the top and paste it into your post

Hope this helps

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[The Northern Ramper]

Icelandic MET going for the friday low to drop into France missing the UK - based on their EVac model.

The corrections are usually southward, this makes sense.