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Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

Coast

By Coast
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Thats a complete downgrade not only for the midlanda but for everyone practically and also no heavy precipitation whatsoever!!

Wouldn't go that far ... perhaps less snowfall but still enough to cause problems in many areas.

T42 has the second front further south west with Central Wales / Bristol / Gloucestershire now at risk on Saturday.

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

NAE has snowfall north of the Midlands, so a definite north shift in the NAE and at 36hrs the front has moved further west:

13032218_2112.gif13032300_2112.gif

I wish ones would post all the NAE rather than cherry picking on to suite there preference . So hear it is today's 12z looks good for those in the pink. A slight push south tonight , but then retreating further north fri afternoon but the blue in the midlands at that time is really nothing much falling out the sky , between the two fronts .

post-9095-0-16243700-1363879431_thumb.jppost-9095-0-16243700-1363879431_thumb.jp

post-9095-0-17321600-1363879454_thumb.jppost-9095-0-89362500-1363879481_thumb.jp

post-9095-0-33438000-1363879474_thumb.jppost-9095-0-77415300-1363879501_thumb.jp

post-9095-0-86701100-1363879442_thumb.jp

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feno13 Apprentice

feno13

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers /snowy winters
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Wouldn't go that far ... perhaps less snowfall but still enough to cause problems in many areas.

T42 has the second front further south west with Central Wales / Bristol / Gloucestershire now at risk on Saturday.

It is a massive downgrade for the east mids / e anglia , if you look at 6am sat , the heaviest ppn has shifted 100+ miles west .

Dont know how to attach charts , still learning.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

I wish ones would post all the NAE rather than cherry picking on to suite there preference . So hear it is today's 12z looks good for those in the pink. A slight push south tonight , but then retreating further north fri afternoon but the blue in the midlands at that time is really nothing much falling out the sky , between the two fronts .

post-9095-0-16243700-1363879431_thumb.jppost-9095-0-16243700-1363879431_thumb.jp

post-9095-0-17321600-1363879454_thumb.jppost-9095-0-89362500-1363879481_thumb.jp

post-9095-0-33438000-1363879474_thumb.jppost-9095-0-77415300-1363879501_thumb.jp

I'm colour blind and can never work out the detail in those NAE charts anyway!!

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

I'm colour blind and can never work out the detail in those NAE charts anyway!!

Lol Same. Completely useless colour scheme to me.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I'm colour blind and can never work out the detail in those NAE charts anyway!!

The Pink ball is the one above the blue ball..........I'll fetch me coat mega_shok.gif

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

It is a massive downgrade for the east mids / e anglia , if you look at 6am sat , the heaviest ppn has shifted 100+ miles west .

Dont know how to attach charts , still learning.

Lets see if the met scrap this one now!!
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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

I'm more interested in seeing how the gfs 12z handles the precipitation, we are getting into the time frame now where it should have a good handle it.

Don't worry about what the NAE is showing, it will be different again in 6 hours time, atleast the gfs isn't having such swings in precipitation amounts.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The Pink ball is the one above the blue ball..........I'll fetch me coat mega_shok.gif

Is it 5cm for the blue?

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

No such changes from GFS so far

gfs-2-24.png?12

gfs-1-24.png?12

I never normally compare the gfs for close detail , the nae handles things much better , I can't believe people choose the gfs over a high res model , for instance the charts you posted show the 0 850hpa across northern England almost , and most if not all England and Wales are into positive numbers , which goes against the second chart you've posted but from the same model ? Also goes against the met o warnings because their amber warning is over parts where according to gfs is in + territory , also the met don't even look at the gfs so I know where my money with .

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Chess01 Apprentice

Chess01

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
Posted

This surely can't be for real ??

think that was for the 18th of january
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

GFS pushing the snow into E Anglia on Saturday. Good for me!

uksnowdepth.png

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

GFS pushing the snow into E Anglia on Saturday. Good for me!

uksnowdepth.png

Yep, the local lunchtime forecast said a few centimetres virtually anywhere on Saturday. We also have a yellow warning which is better than was forecast yesterday.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

I never normally compare the gfs for close detail , the nae handles things much better , I can't believe people choose the gfs over a high res model , for instance the charts you posted show the 0 850hpa across northern England almost , and most if not all England and Wales are into positive numbers , which goes against the second chart you've posted but from the same model ? Also goes against the met o warnings because their amber warning is over parts where according to gfs is in + territory , also the met don't even look at the gfs so I know where my money with .

Not true about the Met not loooking at the GFS. Fergie mentioned a couple of days ago they were prefering its solution to the ECM at that point. Its just in general they prefer UKMO (obviously) and ECM.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Just been on met office site and that warning is not on the site......

Its not been updated yet. The joys of having Fergie in your team eh?!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Trust me it is!

Here's a larger version -

post-15744-0-79368200-1363880851_thumb.j

Are people actually falling for this light hearted joke?! Deary me.

Even when it's not enlarged you can see it's been edited in paint!

Edited by CreweCold
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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Not much change on terms of the models, I am still concerned about some marginality for the area that is south in the predicted "snow zone". It does seem to be on a knife edge and something could easily pop up on the day and make it a slushy mess.

We shall see......hopefully not though.

Edited by Coast
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hec1 Contributor

hec1

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, snow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted

Just been on met office site and that warning is not on the site......

LOL
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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

Not true about the Met not loooking at the GFS. Fergie mentioned a couple of days ago they were prefering its solution to the ECM at that point. Its just in general they prefer UKMO (obviously) and ECM.

You missed what the chief said yesterday then , I wouldn't lie my friend . They don't even consider it at the early time frames

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

ok, good giggle folks, best go back on topic before we all get into trouble! good.gif

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