Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Robbie Garrett]

Just had a quick browse through the CFS, hate to say it looks unsettled all the way though till mid July. Probably going to be a rinse/repeat of last year though, with any good weather being this May/July/August.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just had a quick browse through the CFS, hate to say it looks unsettled all the way though till mid July. Probably going to be a rinse/repeat of last year though, with any good weather being this May/July/August.

As ever, the CFS is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

Perhaps this is the trend, but I would not be so believing.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[Joe Levy]

Just had a quick browse through the CFS, hate to say it looks unsettled all the way though till mid July. Probably going to be a rinse/repeat of last year though, with any good weather being this May/July/August.

I would say with a strong emphasis on the word 'rinse' which is certainly how it has felt in the South-West lately. It would be nice to see some dry weather in the outlook. I personally don't care what the temperatures are, as long as it is dry. Mild and wet certainly doesn't appeal to me at all! Precipitation levels seem to be relatively low for next week (at least on the GFS), so perhaps a brief respite might come in association with the cold weather.

[Cheshire Freeze]

As ever, the CFS is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

Perhaps this is the trend, but I would not be so believing.

According to Matt Hugo, ECM seasonal going for a distinctly mixed/average summer.

[bluearmy]

According to Matt Hugo, ECM seasonal going for a distinctly mixed/average summer.

brilliant news then. ecm seasonal hasnt been right - ever !

[Captain Shortwave]

brilliant news then. ecm seasonal hasnt been right - ever !

So repeat of last year or 2003 then

We are due a decent summer. Whilst 2012 was decent where I live it was a different story for the other 90% of the country.

[Troubleatmill]

According to Matt Hugo, ECM seasonal going for a distinctly mixed/average summer.

Could be right or wrong? maybe that there is just no strong signal for anything so go for average? bit like looking at the ensembles 30 year average red line from months out and saying we will go for that?

[Radiating Dendrite]

According to Matt Hugo, ECM seasonal going for a distinctly mixed/average summer.

To be fair the Matt Hugo ECM updates this winter have not been brilliant in all honesty.

As ever with long range forecasting, apply more than just a pinch of salt!

[Don]

According to Matt Hugo, ECM seasonal going for a distinctly mixed/average summer.

Interesting, but it didn't do too well in the run up to Winter, largely pointing towards a milder than average season. Of course, that's not to say that it won't do well for the upcoming Summer though.

[Robbie Garrett]

I am being as generic as apple pie, my thoughts are that we are probably going to have a mixed year, a very wet one... probably wetter than last year. Unfortunately the CFS daily was correct last year in terms of being a rather wet year, I don't use the CFS graphs which is what most people refer to. I look at the CFS hourly charts from the daily 1/9 monthly and take it from there.

Averages are that we are on for another wet year, considering how dry the years before was. As unfortunate as it may sound, we are in need of some really warm weather, but where is the Azores high??

I would say with a strong emphasis on the word 'rinse' which is certainly how it has felt in the South-West lately. It would be nice to see some dry weather in the outlook. I personally don't care what the temperatures are, as long as it is dry. Mild and wet certainly doesn't appeal to me at all! Precipitation levels seem to be relatively low for next week (at least on the GFS), so perhaps a brief respite might come in association with the cold weather.

As ever, the CFS is about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

Perhaps this is the trend, but I would not be so believing.

[Frank Trough]

According to Matt Hugo, ECM seasonal going for a distinctly mixed/average summer.

i would have thought "mixed" and "average" was a pretty safe bet for the British Isles?! What did it go for last year? Catastrophically wet and cool? I'm pretty sure it went for an above average winter, totally at odds with the 32 dayers which constantly thought blocking over Greenland was going to occur. It got there in the end...after winter.

[Jason M]

I am being as generic as apple pie, my thoughts are that we are probably going to have a mixed year, a very wet one... probably wetter than last year. Unfortunately the CFS daily was correct last year in terms of being a rather wet year, I don't use the CFS graphs which is what most people refer to. I look at the CFS hourly charts from the daily 1/9 monthly and take it from there.

Averages are that we are on for another wet year, considering how dry the years before was. As unfortunate as it may sound, we are in need of some really warm weather, but where is the Azores high??

Oh, don't worry about the Azures high, it will be back with a vengeance come November.

Average and mixed will seem a big improvement on last summer. The good news is that it is statistically very unlikely that this summer will be anywhere near as bad. It would be like getting two 1963 winters back to back.

Hopefully lots of snow to come (maybe some with laying) followed by a Gavin pleasing warm spell and strong trend into spring proper.

Jason

Edited March 21, 2013 by Jason M

[bradymk]

To be fair the Matt Hugo ECM updates this winter have not been brilliant in all honesty.

As ever with long range forecasting, apply more than just a pinch of salt!

Bit unfair, Matt has simply been commenting on the output infront of him and unfortunately, the models have been wrong lots of times this winter. Also the word count on twitter is restricting causing tweets to be read incorrectly at times. On to the next few days, Still think there will be not much precip for Scotland and NE areas from the front itself. Worst hit snow areas probably NE Wales/NW midlands. Got to watch poss snow EA and some SE areas Sat/Sun.

[Timmytour]

What a difference a year makes......last year a new thread was started on the 10th March, lasted only 36 odd pages and went through to the 15th April!

Exciting times ahead for those wishing to see snow and some worrying times for those not wishing to see rain. I know i may end up in a zone that sees snow, but it will never be the quiet winter snow that I long for, with the sweet silence as it falls and lays. Instead I imagine any snowfall will be followed by the sound of drip drip drip at this time of year. Visually great but I'm torn between wanting it or the sunny and warm stuff that can be had at this time of year.

Personally I think the sunny and warm stuff....well warmer anyway...is starting to emerge as we go into Easter. i think hints in the models are becoming stonger and stronger that, if not to start the holiday period, a taste of spring will be along by the time BH monday comes.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Bit unfair, Matt has simply been commenting on the output infront of him and unfortunately, the models have been wrong lots of times this winter. Also the word count on twitter is restricting causing tweets to be read incorrectly at times. On to the next few days, Still think there will be not much precip for Scotland and NE areas from the front itself. Worst hit snow areas probably NE Wales/NW midlands. Got to watch poss snow EA and some SE areas Sat/Sun.

I was not really having a go at him, probably worded it a little badly.

In all fairness, all models have experienced difficulties this winter. Synoptically it has not been the norm of most winters.

[Captain Shortwave]

Average and mixed will seem a big improvement on last summer. The good news is that it is statistically very unlikely that this summer will be anywhere near as bad. It would be like getting two 1963 winters back to back.

We were probably saying this at this time last year. I thought summer 2011 was bad but then 2012 happened

As I said many times, there will be no heatwave at the end of May this year as I have finished uni and don't have exams in May any more.

[The Enforcer]

I never expected any snow in my locale from the fronts whilst they were tracking NE-ward, unless it's a non-marginal 'all snow' event, the milder air ingresses in a manner that the snow/rain line always seems to run across from Wales and then diagonally through Wark/Bucks into the far SE corner in these situations, as it has on several occasions this winter. However, as soon as it became clear that the polar continental air was going to push in, I wondered why there none of the models were showing snow appearing further south and west as the fronts are pushed away by the colder air in a southwestwards direction. The 06z NAE appears to be the first output to do this.

Told you all twitter was dodgy, don't rely on it.

Edited March 21, 2013 by The Enforcer

[mushymanrob]

not that different from what the anomaly charts are beginning to suggest?

just what sprung to mind after reading your post on the anomaly charts, at last some data that just might support the gfs fi warm up.

[fergieweather]

Surely there would be alot of heavy snow showers with what the models are showing early next wk? .The cold uppers are there and instability etc and the sun been higher? Anybody?!?!? .

A few light showers but profiles all look extensively dry. Mostly dry and cold early to mid-week.

[johnholmes]

Picking this up about the post from joggs

It does not matter how cold it is aloft if the 3-d charts, or skew-t charts do not show in depth convective potential, see the link below for Doncaster with tops limited to about 5-6000ft

http://www.netweathe...649b0f85ca85f08

If you have access to Extra just type in your local town/postcode to see what I mean, the same for much of the east coast area

Edited March 21, 2013 by johnholmes

[Man With Beard]

Latest NAE precipitation totals just out

Northern Ireland in particular looking pretty desperate assuming it's all settling snow. Devon and SW Wales flooding risk remains. Eastern areas not seeing too much

Edited March 21, 2013 by rjbw

[Panayiotis]

NAE has snowfall north of the Midlands, so a definite north shift in the NAE and at 36hrs the front has moved further west:

Edited March 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[shaky]

NAE has snowfall north of the Midlands, so a definite north shift in the NAE and at 36hrs the front has moved further west:

Thats a complete downgrade not only for the midlanda but for everyone practically and also no heavy precipitation whatsoever!!

Edit:actually my bad nae still lookin excellent for most!!did not see the charts for tonight!!

Edited March 21, 2013 by shaky

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

NAE has snowfall north of the Midlands, so a definite north shift in the NAE and at 36hrs the front has moved further west:

12z 06z

Comparing the two if anything there's a very slight shift south in earlier frames , yes later it pulls the snow north but if you look at the ppn charts the midlands has nothing over it at that time so it's between the fronts really . Saturday a, looks very snowy for large parts of England , with south midlands taking a hammering

The bottom one been 06z

Edited March 21, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Chris W]

Updated Met Office warnings for general interest: