Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Summer Sun]

06z ensembles have gone colder again

Aberdeen remains as it was

[rory o gorman]

Not at all!

I just like cold wintry weather and primarily snow (which btw is rather difficult to get without it being cold) if you read my posts. Proper snow is so rare in the UK, with mostly non-descript and mild conditions predominating. Also I live in the south (Sussex coast) which is one of the least likely places for snow one could choose - LOL. Down here northerlies rarely deliver anything except cool sunny conditions if you're lucky. What can deliver, as has happened a couple of times this winter / spring, is a decent cold easterly undercut with a stalling front / channel low as ideal and sometimes convective showers getting through on a NEly. That is why I am excited by the current easterly type synoptic regime as it at least offers the opportunities for some snowy fun down here. Since it can be mild pretty much throughout most winters i am grateful for any chance of snow at any time of the year quite frankly.. Perhaps my taste is 'strange' but each to their own, I don't criticize mildies personally and accuse them of being 'trolls' just because I don't share their taste in weather type.

I've lived in a pretty extreme continental climate before (Saskatechewan Canada) where believe me it really does get cold for weeks / months on end and even I would crave some warmth, trouble was the breakup was always a messy muddy affair but summer when it came would be spectacular.

Apologies to mods et al, just felt the accusation needed commenting on.

Ok but to you expect uppers to be sub -12 with sub 528 dam to arrive from an easterly in april honestly? I like cold and snow in WINTER when weaker sun and less surface heating and deeper cold pools allow for the chance of deep cold coming from the east and therefor convective snow .

Edited March 25, 2013 by rory o gorman

[Potent Gust]

GFS shows below average temps all through to 384hrs. Both the NAE and GFS show a lot of snow showers this week especially for the North East. In fact the Met Office have just issued a warning for this.

[cowdog]

Purga- is either a troll or a strange taste in weather.

Firstly the gfs 06z is no good for snow most of the run is cloudy cold/cool with a rather strong biting east wind. If your excited by that then ok... but i don't know many that would , especially severe weather junkies and more so farmers, who would be very far behind in the growing season and costing them in feed for cattle ect that would normally be outdoors. As for proper snow in april a direct arctic flow with much colder air at 500 mb is needed, not a slight modified pool of eastern cold.How anyone can like this run is beyond me ...

Its not just cattle feed its dead animals. I know of 2 farmers who have lost over a dozen sheep. Also heard from our Vet that many farmers are having to order skips they have that many carcasses to get rid of. If we get another bout like the last one it could well leave a permanent scar on livestock farming in the North UK.

Thankfully the models are showing (bar one run a day ago) that the north will be largely unaffected by the Easter storm. Way its looking this Easter storm is the last dangerous pattern as nothing even in deep FI has thrown up anything that is anywhere near a repeat of last weekend.

[Purga]

Ok but to you expect uppers to be sub -12 with sub 528 dam to arrive from an easterly in april honestly? I like cold and snow in WINTER when weaker sun and less surface heating and deeper cold pools allow for the chance of deep cold coming from the east and therefor convective snow .

Rory, you don't need to get sub -12 uppers, as long as the uppers are sub 0, dewpoints sub 0, wet bulb and lapse rates favourable, etc a cold continental easterly will deliver if the precipitation occurs with decent intensity and longevity - and yes there have been many occasions when April met these conditions and snow occured. Convective snow in your location I admit would need the right mix of very cold uppers and instability in the flow to produce results. Guess I'm being a bit IMBYish.

[Coast]

New thread here you lovely people!!!

http://forum.netweat...3-012z-onwards/

Edited March 25, 2013 by Coast