Far North of England Regional Discussion 20/03/13 22z ---->

[Boro Snow]

a cold and frosty morning here and yes the sun is out finally, temp still below freezing at -0.7 dp -2.9, watching the weather this morning on bbc it looks like we could miss out on fri/sat the place to be is defo cumbria general north west, wales and the midlands

[Geordiesnow]

It would kind of sum up the winter if the fronts pivots around Cumbria and misses out on the NE in general won't it!? Still I rather misses us by a fair distance than it snowing 30 miles down the road and nothing around here so I shall be watching with interest too see how much snow the Midlands could actually get from this event!

[Summer Sun]

Just had to double check what that object is in the sky and yes its the sun!

BBC weather last night showed the front stalling in the west and not making to the NE, I'm sure it will make it over here later tomorrow its all about what intensity it will have left in it

Also weather warnings will be updated later this morning. Amber warnings for both snow and rain likely to raised. No idea where the Amber's will be its a case of wait and see

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[tynevalleysnow]

Matt hugo and the met office have us for heavy snow with blizzards for friday into and all day saturday

[Summer Sun]

from Ian fergusson in the MOD thread

The core totals (Amber upgrades expected this morn) remain in areas earlier discussed, with worrying 75cm snow accumulations in N Wales for example; Amber also ready to roll for Devon/Cornwall where locally 100-125mm rain raises flood concern significantly after discussions with FWC... chief stresses volatility with great scope for model errors in areal and accumulation sense, but even allowing for this, the signal for newsworthy severe weather - both white and wet - is well-set and the next 24-48hrs are going to be hellish for forecasters pretty much anywhere. Not good.

[Snowmaggedon]

from Ian fergusson in the MOD thread

So looks like we are going to miss out on a possible historic event. Just great!

[Summer Sun]

So looks like we are going to miss out on a possible historic event. Just great!

Latest NAEFS shows a fair amount of snow for us

Could be 10 to 20cm for some by Saturday

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

Latest NAEFS shows a fair amount of snow for us

Could be 10 to 20cm for some by Saturday

Hmmm time will tell. Let's hope we see some convective snow showers next week and the significant snow even Ian referred to yesterday for next week if we miss out this weekend

[Summer Sun]

Well the sunshine didn't last long!

[Boro Snow]

Hmmm time will tell. Let's hope we see some convective snow showers next week and the significant snow even Ian referred to yesterday for next week if we miss out this weekend

im sure we will see summit but not as much as the midlands n cumbria,, also the met are concerned about a snow event 8-9 days away which will be over easter ian ferguson spoke about it a few times yesterday, so we still have at least another week n a half of cold weather to look forward and opportunites for further snowfall

[Boro Snow]

god steve murr he does love his ramping

[tynevalleysnow]

If you had told me a month ago that today we would have 5 inches of snow on the ground and a blue sky I'd of bitten your hand off so whatever happens in the next 72 hours ill be pleased. Under an hour now till met update warnings. Me bet is we stay yellow while north west goes amber and maybe south lakes and west yorksdales go red.

[NickR]

god steve murr he does love his ramping

I think the point about the difference between snow forecast to fall and snow lying was well made on the MO thread just now.

Anyway, I'll be turning the TV off when it becomes obvious we're going to miss out! LOL Just hope it's all calmed down by Sunday, as I'm going by train to Oxford.

[seabreeze86]

I think the wind direction could be our best friend if the precip makes it this far north. With it being from the south east the rain shadow effect we normally get when a front crosses the pennines will be minimal.

If Geordiesnow is about he has often called these situations right in the past, can you a remember a time when a front approached with this wind direction?. My bad memory seems to recall times when is was just rain pushing up from the south and front intensifiying on the easten flank when is was not forecast..

Of course this wont matter if the front does not get this far north. But worth a look at i feel.

[Snowstorm1]

Get ready for the shouting tomorrow and chanting 'move north , north NORTHHHHH'

[Andy_]

Well the sunshine didn't last long!

Still peeking through the clouds here in Jarrow

[Boro Snow]

am i right in thinking these 2 fronts coming in and its the 2nd one we need to move further north because the first will just break up before even hitting the midlands or have i dreamt that lol

I think the point about the difference between snow forecast to fall and snow lying was well made on the MO thread just now.

Anyway, I'll be turning the TV off when it becomes obvious we're going to miss out! LOL Just hope it's all calmed down by Sunday, as I'm going by train to Oxford.

i reckon they could be a few delays on the railways on sunday like lol

[Summer Sun]

Still peeking through the clouds here in Jarrow

Yeah is here now at 9am there wasn't a cloud in the sky here now its sunny intervals feels warm in the sun but its chilly out of it

Warnings are now been updated first one is an amber rain warning for the SW

[Snowmaggedon]

Steve Murr just said in the Yorkshire thread expect some beefy convection Mon-Wed. Interesting.

[Summer Sun]

Snow total charts to 06z Sunday of course is shouldn't be taken as Gospel but...........

[Andy_]

Snow total charts to 06z Sunday of course is shouldn't be taken as Gospel but...........

You're fairly near the A66 Gav, how likely do you think it's going to end up closing tomorrow? We're due to leave Tyneside at around 11.

[Summer Sun]

You're fairly near the A66 Gav, how likely do you think it's going to end up closing tomorrow? We're due to leave Tyneside at around 11.

The A66 along Bowes I assume?

If we do get the snow I would expect the snow gates to shut quite quickly when it snow up there it snow's! and if its windy you'll be looking at Blizzard conditions given its height and exposure

Its all up in the air atm as to where this system is seemingly going to stall still awaiting the updated warnings for the snow

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Andy_]

The A66 along Bowes I assume?

If we do get the snow I would expect the snow gates to shut quite quickly when it snow up there it snow's! and if its windy you'll be looking at Blizzard conditions given its height and exposure

Its all up in the air atm as to where this system is seemingly going to stall still awaiting the updated warnings for the snow

Might be a last minute decision to go along the A69 further north like, don't fancy getting all the way down to see the gates closed!

[Summer Sun]

Might be a last minute decision to go along the A69 further north like, don't fancy getting all the way down to see the gates closed!

Where you going to the Lakes?

[Snowmaggedon]

Is it just me or has the GFS O6z moved things North East