Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Coast]

New thread coming!

[chris55]

ECM raw data from the Norwegian site shows plenty of snow in London area and my location Friday night into Saturday, ties in with Snowkings post earlier,

10-20mm of ppn falling as sleet/snow.

London

http://www.yr.no/ste...tidsvarsel.html

Stroud

http://www.yr.no/pla...troud/long.html

NAE 48 hours also looking snowy for the Midlands

ECM and GFS also have some insanely cold uppers for the time of year into next week, some heavy snow showers around I should think,

Edited March 21, 2013 by chris55

[TEITS]

Looking very good for the E Midlands/ E Anglia on Saturday.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs543.gif

What is apparent on this run is how the front becomes stationary and gradually weakens across the Midlands which obviously suggests prolonged snowfall. This combined with the timing of when this falls i.e overnight could result in significant accumulations come Saturday morning.

Just add im delighted for those members in the W Midlands/NW England who often miss out.

Edited March 21, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[fergieweather]

Sorry ian i disagree with you, the northern boundary has been receeding and the southern line has been moving back towards the coast.

I fully expect the updated 06z GFS and 06z NAE to show the front stalled in the SE across WNW at 48 And be all snow.

Your line of north essex is to far north. Even the t57 euro snow accum map disagrees with that, but hey for the moment it really doesnt matter that much....

Regards

S

Hi Steve, yes, the new run (Exeter happier now with NAE after corrections last night to match upstream imagery) takes some snow down to SE quite extensively by 06z Sat. The core totals (Amber upgrades expected this morn) remain in areas earlier discussed, with worrying 75cm snow accumulations in N Wales for example; Amber also ready to roll for Devon/Cornwall where locally 100-125mm rain raises flood concern significantly after discussions with FWC... chief stresses volatility with great scope for model errors in areal and accumulation sense, but even allowing for this, the signal for newsworthy severe weather - both white and wet - is well-set and the next 24-48hrs are going to be hellish for forecasters pretty much anywhere. Not good.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Hi Steve, yes, the new run (Exeter happier now with NAE after corrections last night to match upstream imagery) takes some snow down to SE quite extensively by 06z Sat. The core totals (Amber upgrades expected this morn) remain in areas earlier discussed, with worrying 75cm snow accumulations in N Wales for example; Amber also ready to roll for Devon/Cornwall where locally 100-125mm rain raises flood concern significantly after discussions with FWC... chief stresses volatility with great scope for model errors in areal and accumulation sense, but even allowing for this, the signal for newsworthy severe weather - both white and wet - is well-set and the next 24-48hrs are going to be hellish for forecasters pretty much anywhere. Not good.

75cm snow accumulations??? 100-125mm rainfall??? Serious stuff.

[fergieweather]

75cm snow accumulations??? 100-125mm rainfall??? Serious stuff.

Very much so. Can't be overstated. Granted, greatest threat of highest snow accumulations and drifting mostly levels above main road network but not exclusively so.... power line accretion a very real concern in this set-up.

[mountain shadow]

I feel some are misreading the situation. Based on the current output its too vague saying N England is going to be hit because as I constantly keep saying it isn't just how far N the precip manages to get but E. So with this in mind locations such as NW England will see far more precip than say NE England who at the moment appear to see very little.

The sweet zone continues to look like NE Wales, W Midlands, NW England (Maybe central and N Midlands. This risk extending further S & E during Friday night into Saturday.

Dont forget the sweetest Part of all. Higher parts of Northern Ireland could see 50cm plus with 50mph gusts!!

[TEITS]

75cm snow accumulations??? 100-125mm rainfall??? Serious stuff.

I would be amazed if 75cm of snow accumulated unless Ian is referring to the highest of ground. For the UK to experience such heavy snowfalls not only would huge precip amounts be required but also the snow ratio would need to be conducive. At the moment my own feeling is between 20-30cm on higher ground, 10cm lower levels.

[Coast]

Here we go, a whole new shiny untouched thread!