Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[chionomaniac]

Afternoon all.

Please discuss the latest output here.

From what I have had a chance to look at, extensive Northern blocking remains the theme, with the attendent cold weather that that brings. March 2013 is shaping up to be the complete opposite of March 2012.

Is there another channel low on the cards - we wait years for one and then like buses two come along at once?

Will it bring another widespread snow event.....

Please be courteous to others when posting and respect that others may wish for a different type of weather pattern than shown currently.......

[MR EXTREMES]

Afternoon all.

Please discuss the latest output here.

From what I have had a chance to look at, extensive Northern blocking remains the theme, with the attendent cold weather that that brings. March 2013 is shaping up to be the complete opposite of March 2012.

Is there another channel low on the cards - we wait years for one and then like buses two come along at once?

Will it bring another widespread snow event.....

Please be courteous to others when posting and respect that others may wish for a different type of weather pattern than shown currently.......

im skeptical dont think it will be anything exciting for the south but futher north does look like the likely place to have something very special.

[mcweather]

BBC forecast for the week ahead suggesting snow for central southern England if the fronts push in on friday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21824040

[snowking]

Just to offer another perspective, the NAEFS warning system:

That is from the 0z, but even this supports the risk of snow right the way down to at least the M4 at present.

In the shorter term:

Pretty high risk of 5-10cm widely across NE England and E Scotland.

Taking a look at the high resolution outputs:

12km WRF output not as keen on accumulating snow to lower levels, plenty for the Southern Uplands and Grampians though, where as NAE (up until 12z Tuesday) giving 2-10cms quite widely, with spot totals of 20cms, and as much as 40cm over the Grampians.

I would imagine some disruption will ensue

SK

[Summer Sun]

GFS London ensemble shows a clear peak around the 22nd where the uppers hit 5c before dropping a tad to between 0c and 3c after this most of the members stay above the zero line

Manchester is the same

Aberdeen on the other hand peaks at around -11c on the 20th

[SMU]

TO Gavin

the GFS ens all peak at + 5c for london-

this is the ECM 96 12z-

http://www.meteociel...CM0-96.GIF?17-0

it looks as though it will be different to the UKMO & the same as the GFS-

UKMO is the strongest with the undercut tonight & based on how all these lows have gone before it will nearest the truth-

S

Edited March 17, 2013 by Steve Murr

[legritter]

Yep like Buses channel lows come along in twos and threes but like the buses some are out of service .they also turn up late and early just like the weather .well will the ECM bring that colder air further south ,which ever happens it looks like being a cold wintry mix for many this coming week .as i said earlier Sheffield area looks a good place to be but this could change and hopefully places further south could get lucky ,as well .whatever the outcome im enjoying the modells at the moment and feel its a bonus to have synoptics like this in mid march .i will finish post now so i can catch ECM and CO , when typing with one finger it takes forever ,cheers

[Summer Sun]

ECM is going the way of GFS

GFS

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM T144

Well mildies get their wish, enjoy your cool drizzly south easterly.

Wake me up when something interesting happens

Luckily models don't determine the weather....... yet

Uppers -2 to +2, not even going to remove my thick coat for that.

Edited March 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[snowking]

Yep ECMWF backs the GFS this evening with the result that big circular high with very little disruption of the Atlantic trough

If anything its worse than the GFS!

Horrible, yukky, disgusting cold rain, and how anybody could possibly be hoping for this outcome I cannot get my head around. I'm up for warmth just as much as Mushy and Gavin at this stage, but whats shown there will be feeling far from warm despite what the thermometers might be showing

SK

Edited March 17, 2013 by snowking

[Captain Shortwave]

Better than counting sheep

Uppers - meh (around 0 countrywide, you get nout for that warm or cold)

Edited March 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

ECM is going the way of GFS

It was only a matter of time, as ECM has had numerous cold op runs whilst the ensembles have given the colder outlook less than 50% support:

0z:

Its the same with the GEFS, cold op runs against a backdrop of milder ensembles, 12z:

Thats not to say that either op run is right, with the milder flow, as with this delicate synoptic we may not know either way for another 48 hours or so.

Edited March 17, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The ECM is very aggressive with the push of milder air from the South at T120. But as others have said it wouldn't be dry with it. This coming week might be the last cold spell until next winter so enjoy for everyone that may get snow.

[Purga]

A nasty ECM at 144hrs not wanting to undercut and far too round shaped LP

Let's hope UKMO is more on song.

EDIT: Well, trough disrupting at 168hrs so not quite as dire as it looked but needs to adjust south.

Needs to try harder - Grade B+

Edited March 17, 2013 by Purga

[rory o gorman]

A good cluster of milder options showing on the lastest ensembles for Ireland , hopefully an Atlantic resurgence is just around the corner .

[Mr Frost]

The ECM is very aggressive with the push of milder air from the South at T120. But as others have said it wouldn't be dry with it. This coming week might be the last cold spell until next winter so enjoy for everyone that may get snow.

Will do.

Another 5 days of fantastic wintry weather (in the middle of March) suits me. After that, who knows? Although I would much prefer dry and cold than below average/average with rain!

[Captain Shortwave]

T192

.....................

Days 2 to 4 still have cold uppers around so it will be nice to see what areas could get some decent snowfall. Northeastern areas look good for a solid dumping. This run from then on is a never ending bout of tepid south easterlies

Edited March 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mcweather]

ECM is going the way of GFS

GFS

It only matter if it verifies Gavin I'd check that its not a mild outlier before counting my chickens

[lorenzo]

From zero to hero. (ECM to UKMO via the GFS GEM and NAVGEM)..

Going to be another bout of model chasing working out where this mid-Atlantic low sits and where it disrupts to, general idea is there at the 6 day timeframe, UKMO FTW !! If we are going to get something interesting then this is surely the best option on the table.

[Purga]

T192

.....................

Days 2 to 4 still have cold uppers around so it will be nice to see what areas could get some decent snowfall. Northeastern areas look good for a solid dumping. This run from then on is a never ending bout of tepid south easterlies

Fairly wretched then but not too mild so some consolation.

[Snowman.]

Would the UKMOdeliver snow to eastern parts?

I said yesterday that what the ECM was showing was wrong but this looks even more wonky to me.

Edited March 17, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Ian Brown]

Even if it verifies, the whole pattern fails to support any continuation or onset of mild uppers, there is no way that any energy can get into the Northern arm of the jet.

[Captain Shortwave]

Fairly wretched then but not too mild so some consolation.

I would take frigid or warm to be honest. This is a weak drizzly front/east low cloud drizzle fest

At this point I would just nuke the limpet trough and have the Azores high build northwards. Frankly even the Azores high can't breach this dreadful output, as Ian Brown rightly says.

Day 10

The low actually moved with slightly milder south/westerlies moving in. But it's at day 10 and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Edited March 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

ECM T144

Well mildies get their wish, enjoy your cool drizzly south easterly.

Wake me up when something interesting happens

Luckily models don't determine the weather....... yet

Uppers -2 to +2, not even going to remove my thick coat for that.

Fairly confident this will be on the mild side of its ensembles, especially the London ones.

We had a period of seeing ECM Op throw out some of the colder options so we were due to see some milder options represented.

Tomorrow evening will give us a better handle on things.

[mcweather]

The ECM seems to have been out for a night on the tiles and has found itself waking up in bed with the GFS.

Something it will surely regret in the morning