Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

[chionomaniac]

Good evening all.

This is the first spring 2013 thread that I have started - and the outlook is more wintry than most of the previous winters. But hey ho that is the weather for us!

I am getting quite excited at the prospect of a Spring Snow Bonus!

The last thread was moving along nicely so let's keep that up please.

Post away.....

[peterf]

just rung around the local lads that lamb a few early sheep.best make some space indoors.

[SMU]

Ian the PPN runs in the MOGREPS & ECM suites at 120 must be pointing to very good convection & cloud tops-

Is the raw ECM varifies then I suspect Monday will see widespread 0c maxima- maybe warmer to the SW but equally colder to the East of the UK-

S

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM ensembles have the -12 isotherm over Eastern England for Monday,

ECM and GFS agreeing on a very cold start to next week

[Cloud 10]

Just picking up on a post about dew-points in the last thread.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2627445

Dew-points are not going to be a problem!

[nick sussex]

Unfortunately I was replying to Ian F when the thread locked!!!

In response to your post Ian in terms of these outputs being just computers.

Yes you're right re computer models but as you've seen from your time in here they can cause lots of emotion swings! It's funny I have friends in Canada who can't stand the snow, they just get sick of it!

I suppose because of the generally temperate climate for the UK people are drawn to the extremes of the weather. Do you mind me asking Ian do you like snow yourself, so putting your non UKMO head on so putting aside concerns for travel etc. I saw a quote by a member on their post by JB Priestley, I think it really gets to the heart of why so many people do indeed love snow, I think its like almost a different reality or actually going into this bubble against the outside world, anyway I'd better get back on topic!. Here it is :

The first fall of snow is not only an event, it is a magical event. You go to bed in one kind of world and wake up in another quite different, and if this is not enchantment then where is it to be found?

Edited March 6, 2013 by nick sussex

[chionomaniac]

Sorry Nick I didn't spot that you were posting. Normally I try and check and wait until everyone has finished.

[nick sussex]

Sorry Nick I didn't spot that you were posting. Normally I try and check and wait until everyone has finished.

No worries I started the post then went and made a coffee and then finished it so it took some time!

[Cloud 10]

Not much scatter on the short/medium range ECM ensembles,just a question of how quick

the cold gets in.

[DAVID SNOW]

Unfiortunately I was replying to Ian F when the thread locked!!!

In response to your post Ian in terms of these outputs being just computers.

Yes you're right re computer models but as you've seen from your time in here they can cause lots of emotion swings! It's funny I have friends in Canada who can't stand the snow, they just get sick of it!

I suppose because of the generally temperate climate for the UK people are drawn to the extremes of the weather. Do you mind me asking Ian do you like snow yourself, so putting your non UKMO head on so putting aside concerns for travel etc. I saw a quote by a member on their post by JB Priestley, I think it really gets to the heart of why so many people do indeed love snow, I think its like almost a different reality or actually going into this bubble against the outside world, anyway I'd better get back on topic!. Here it is :

The first fall of snow is not only an event, it is a magical event. You go to bed in one kind of world and wake up in another quite different, and if this is not enchantment then where is it to be found?

Great post Nick, i think Ian F is more of a thunderstorm fan

[lorenzo]

Great output this evening, so ironic, just when Spring hints at blooming and putting this Winter to rest up goes the Greenland high to lockdown the Atlantic and a re-load too. You couldn't make it up ! Pretty amazing to see.

Going to be an abrupt change for many sucked in by the relatively benign high dominating things recently, what a turn around in uppers within such a short space of time. Now and Monday 0/120 and EPS mean also highlights the continental chill.

Mean

Delighted, everything has gotten interesting again..

[bluearmy]

interesting prose from cpc

THE WESTERN RIDGE IS AT ODDS WITH TELECONNECTIONS ON THE

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK OVER WESTERN GREENLAND. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE CONSENSUS

AMONG TODAY'S MODELS FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, TODAY'S OUTLOOK WILL

FOLLOW TOOLS BASED ON SURFACE FEATURES PREDICTED BY MODELS, AND LESS ON

TELECONNECTION OR SURFACE SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL

CIRCULATION FEATURES.

earlier this winter, we saw the greeny ridge progged on several occasions and cpc always made the above comment re teleconnections not supporting the two ridges. maybe this time, it will be the eastern pacific ridge's turn to not verify. of course, we could see the blocking drift east of greenland again. the trend continues for the initial frigid easterly to be a short sharp shock of 24, perhaps 36 hours followed by a frontal approach from the north which introduces higher dp's and less cold uppers. thats when the impact of the time of year will be felt most. thereafter, the reload from the northeast currently favoured but at the range of a week + , we must be cautious on exactly how low the uppers in any reload will be and whether the flow can be suitable to keep sub zero dp's. some impressively low thicknesses around early next week in the mid teens.

Edited March 6, 2013 by bluearmy

[Guest pjl20101]

This may explain why it's gonna get so cold as the AO is so negative:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Note there are some changes so hopefully the atmosphere and weather won't be as cold as next week sorta thing.

[Frosty.]

Great post Nick, i think Ian F is more of a thunderstorm fan

Good, he and we might have thunder snow next week, an incoming rush of bitter scandinavian cold by sunday is looking likely now, and then next mon/tues the 510 dam line comes to visit the uk. I've been reading some posts from canadiancoops with all the snow they are having over there, we will have plenty of our own next week in various parts of the uk.

[nick sussex]

Great post Nick, i think Ian F is more of a thunderstorm fan

Thanks, thunderstorms interesting!, I'm normally hiding under the bed! You can get some amazing ones down here, the best is when its dry on this side of the Pyrenees but lightning on the southern side, it throws up the most bizarre light, in flashes you see the mountains clearly in the middle of the night but the light I've never seen before, its really quite eery.

Anyway I'd better add something on topic!

So the GFS 18hrs run is out soon, now that we've got agreement on the overall pattern between the big 3 its all to do with the cold advection into the UK, so the orientation of the high and its angle is quite important, as you saw from the UKMO the high edges se not south/sw and this took the coldest air and instability a bit too far to the south.

What helps is to see the earliest break possible with shortwave energy to the nw, once its done its job by pivoting the trough and drawing some energy away from it you want it gone, this then doesn't impinge the sw ridging of the high to the ne.

Edited March 6, 2013 by nick sussex

[Iceaxecrampon]

just rung around the local lads that lamb a few early sheep.best make some space indoors.

Yes - was out on the MB early this afternoon there were quite a few newborn in the fields - could really do without this spell - I for one am ready for Summer.....

Looking at the predicted ppn hopefully the Pennines will do their stuff.

Ian

Edited March 6, 2013 by Iceaxecrampon

[Gibby]

just rung around the local lads that lamb a few early sheep.best make some space indoors.

Good point. I made the decision to put an early Weather Watch on my website this evening as I know many of my local farmers use the site. Is a bit of a way off but precaution is the best tool 'cause on tonight's output it does look like it could become quite bad especially overnight's considering we're now in March and the lambing season is in full swing.

[snowking]

ECMWF precipitation at +120:

But it should be noted at this juncture its progged as mostly light (though of course traditionally models tend to underestimate inland propagation and convective potential until closer timeframes)

As such, current projection for > 1 inch of snowfall by +168:

SK

[PolarWarsaw]

Do we have the old thread?

[Panayiotis]

Do we have the old thread?

Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward - Forecasting Model Discussion - Netweather Community Forums

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Do we have the old thread?

Try this

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76042-model-output-discussion-2nd-march-onward/page__st__960

[Cloud 10]

Quite a change in the latest fax chart for saturday compared with the one issued last night,which

reflects the ukmo's backtrack towards gfs/ecm solutions.

tonight.. last night..

[chionomaniac]

GFS 18 Z would like to bring snow in as early as Sunday for many. The cold is brought in quicker.

Edit - note the reason - the stronger Icelandic high.

Edited March 6, 2013 by chionomaniac

[legritter]

Yes very MAGICAL ,Very good charts and good data tonight again ,as iv said we dont need stella runs just nice n easy step by step we are nearly there gang .i hope that many posters get a good share if the synoptics are in our favour .im just waiting now for tonights fax 120 that should give us some early clues .im hoping i can e mail my canadian friends next week and show them some disruptive snow instead of the other way around .so a Very interesting spell of weather on the way i hope theres more winners than losers ,cant believe it after yesterdays brilliant spring day and the noise of lawnmowers ,cheers gang

[Panayiotis]

GFS 18z going to plan at 96hrs, bitter,bitter easterly!

Hopefully this isnt going to be like the dull and dry easterly we had last week!