Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[nick sussex]

The ECM postage stamps show lots of variation at 168hrs, I have to say though the placement of the -6 isoline so far south in many of those for the middle of March is really very rare, also its quite funny to see the +16 isoline also making an appearance, its a reminder to us that spring is here but at the moment its weather looks like a throwback to mid winter:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[HammerJack]

Are 850 of -12 the temp at 850 meters?

Edited March 6, 2013 by LeighD

[fergieweather]

Thanks Ian F, I hope you haven't taken any criticisms of the UKMO raw output by myself too personally, put it this way if the GFS had been so unreliable during the last week it would have suffered a lot worse!

As you've probably seen over the winter the GFS normally gets most derided by myself and others. Yes its a difficult set up for the UKMO forecasters because even with that cold air temps especially in cities and towns should creep above freezing but in any showers could well plummet to freezing or below.

Nighttime of course looks the greater concern for those out and about.

It's just a computer model. There's no competition here - just unbiased scientific assessment matters. Nobody at UKMO treats it as a competition of model v model (wish this forum did likewise!)

Two days ago they dismissed their GM to a fair degree out at longer term. Equally they dismissed GFS prognosis at the time as just 30% prob. Favoured amalgam was blend of EC, MOGREPS & JMA. Haven't checked their views yet re 12z suites.

[-uksnow-]

Are 850 of -12 the temp at 850 meters?

No, roughly 1500m

[chionomaniac]

New thread coming soon - so please finish off here

[That ECM]

that Santa Claus doesn't exist!

Hey!!!!

[HammerJack]

No, roughly 1500m

Thanks. Best I go to the learning zone.

[Methuselah]

Some amazing potential over the next week or so...If it's anywhere near as snowy as March/April1975 was, expect some disruption...

[chionomaniac]

New thread here:

Please finish up here.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looking at the charts with my limited knowledge it certainly looks like snow is possible in many places but to varying degrees. Dew points look at the moment to be forecast very close to zero, Might be sleety in places

What are you talking about ??? Due points are shown to be deeply negative....