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Dorsetbred

2013 Chasing Season

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3 reports from yesterday

20:12 2.75" 4mls SSE COTTONWOOD SHORES BURNET TX

GOLF TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF HWYS 71 281

20:50 2.00" 3mls SE SMITHVILLE BASTROP TX

HEN EGG SIZE HAIL.

04:15 3.50" HITCHCOCK GALVESTON TX

15-20 MINUTES OF BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL.

EXTREME HAIL DAMAGE TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE TOWN.

ROOF DAMAGE ... CAR DAMAGE ... WINDOWS BLOWN OUT Posted Image

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Is the UK2USA streaming team off here, or is that someone else?

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That is someone else Matty, a guy called Lee who is from Reading, Looks like he has gone out for the Easter Holidays for 2 weeks (Maybe a Teacher etc) and teamed up with an American Chaser. His chase dates were 1st - 15th April and it looks like he might now return to the UK With a zero Tornado count, that is the BIG Risk going so early in the Season with big gaps between systems especially with Polar Cold Fronts like this.

Lets hope he gets something out of today and Thursday as after that the Moisture looks to be back down in Mexico.

Regards

Paul S

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ok well 35 days before I arrive in DFW and a lot to think about before I set foot on the plane.  Will certainly be sorting out my travel insurance and I still need to purchase some dollars.  I did get some Euro for christmas but had to change them for dollars, my wife hasnt got used to the idea that the US isnt in the Euro Zone.  

 

Tom

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So, the good ol' Almanac shows:

 

May 2013
1st-3rd. Pleasant, then unsettled; showers Southern Rockies.
4th-7th. Scattered thunderstorms Arkansas and Louisiana, followed by fair, cool weather. Dry, pleasant elsewhere.
8th-11th. Heavy thunderstorms New Mexico into Texas; rain Gulf Coast.
12th-15th. Sunny, then unsettled; showers over the Rockies.
16th-19th. Clearing; gusty winds New Mexico, Texas. Showers along Gulf Coast, then clearing.
20th-23rd. Gusty winds, showers sweep east across Southern Plains; stormy weather Texas, Oklahoma.
24th-27th. Sunshine.
28th-31st. Mainly cloudy Southern Rockies; some rain for Texas.
 
June 2013
1st-3rd. Fair and pleasant, then rain in Texas, Oklahoma.
4th-7th. Unsettled Rockies; squally over the Plains. Big thunderstorms for Gulf Coast. An early tropical storm is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Believe it if you will

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And for later the high plains suggest:

 

June 2013
1st-3rd. Fair, then turning unsettled over Colorado.
4th-7th. Dangerous thunderstorms for the Dakotas south to KansasPossible tornado weather in Kansas, Missouri and parts of Nebraska and Iowa.
8th-11th. Warm, then showers for Rockies through Nebraska, Dakotas.
12th-15th. Sunshine east into the Plains.
16th-19th. Fair, then big thunderstorms over the Rockies and the Plains States.
20th-23rd. Thunderstorms Missouri, followed by hot and dry conditions.
24th-27th. Fair, then light rain.

 

Remember "It's just for fun"

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Couple of Posts I wanted to Highlight over on Stormtrack.

 

First one is from Mike Smith who works for the NWS In Wichita

 

A couple of thoughts: The snow cover in isn't going away immediately and, even once it is gone, there will be wet ground that will make southern Canada and the far northern U.S. tending cooler than normal over the next 30 days or so.Believe it or not (I just checked) water temperatures are normal in the west Gulf and warmer than normal in the east Gulf. At some point, this potential extreme (for May) temperature gradient is going set off a huge day or a huge period (think May, 2003) of above normal tornado activity.I expect there are plenty of tornadoes yet to occur this year. It is just Mother Nature is 30 days behind with temperatures.

 

And from Derek Weston

 

last monthly run of ecmwf showed some troughy goodness from around may 6-13ishAll subject to change, naturally.

 

 

 

   So who is going to be the lucky ones this Season, btw look up the end on May 2003 and be amazed!

      

 

Paul S   

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Last year the season was early, this year the season looks late. I have always liked the last 10 days of May, a good period for producing some action.

 

From memory it was 2004  when the season was late and big.  The 2005 season was late as well with June the tornadic month.

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Well apart from getting some dollars, I have now nearly got the various bits in place and have finally booked my travel insurance. Dogtag seems now to be one of the only one that specifically states Stormchasing. It was about the same as I was paying in previous years. 

 

So , have i put anything in my case yet ,  nope.   One thing at a time!!!! 

 

Have all those flying with BA been on and put all their additional details onto the BA website i.e. passport details etc etc  Go onto My Flight and put your flight refs into it and see if you have put everthing that theyrequire on.

 

Tom

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Bloody annoyed at how quiet the season has been so far. Nothing much doing this coming week and then it's finals week, so if anything does kick off I won't really be able to get out there. Then I'm road tripping...Leaving just a window of 20-25th May before I come home for good.

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So some mixed messages filtering through concerning the potential for the next few months. The story so far has been the magnitude of regular CF scouring events which strips the Plains of heat and moisture in quick time. Certainly April has seen some late snow events for the Northern Plains which means the snow cover will be longer in dissipating this year. OK you could get some extreme temp gradients as we go into May but it's only one pin on the map as far as decent storm chances go so we need to see post frontal moisture returns increasing in magnitude, which given the Gulf is actually at or even a tad above normnal sst this year could be a plus point.I too am leaning towards a late (ish) surge in storm events this season with the period May 20th to June 5th probably containing a couple of outbreak type events, but whatever happens the tours need to be prepared for downtime and also to scoot long distances to get to the storms early to mid-May.

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Yes, we'll be streaming live and the team will be sending back photos and reports as they go too :)

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Have I missed something - is Tour 1 now in the field and if so is there any news?

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Only Tours 2-5 this year Neil, Me and the Team are arriving Monday 6th May and setting up the vehicles over the next few days after this, the first offical chase day is Thursday 9th May for Tour 2.

 

Thank Goodness there was not a Tour 1 this year.

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Only Tours 2-5 this year Neil, Me and the Team are arriving Monday 6th May and setting up the vehicles over the next few days after this, the first offical chase day is Thursday 9th May for Tour 2.

 

Thank Goodness there was not a Tour 1 this year.

Indeed Paul and that's why I was asking. Meagre pickings from now (structure only for Weds) until into next week with the dreaded death ridge set-up across the west/central CONUS. Maybe a bit of upslope and lee circulation off the colorado plataeux but I can't see too much of a more organised threat until, coincidentally, the 9th May when the ridge finally dissolves SEwards and moisture return commences again in earnest.The only plus point is that decent rich gulf moisture will consolidate in situ (in theory) ready to be unleashed into the Southern Plains.

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Yh, Too many chasers just look for the Big 990mb LP's crashing through the Central Plains with it's 90-100 knots flow, what they sometimes fail to see is the Southern Arm of the Sub Tropical Jet, this can exert its influence through the Southern Plains and give some decent chase days along the dryline near the Caprock or Western Texas, these chases are much more fun than 60mph Storm Motions for example.

 

Not too worried at all, the dreaded death ridge of late may 2009 saw us chase 10/10 days with decent Supercells thrown in as well, if you look hard enough there should be chase opportunities to be had, and if it's the Big Bend area of Texas then so be it.

 

Just seeing a Storm will satisfy most people I think on the tours as the Uk has been shocking these last few years other than the big 28th June day last year in the Midlands.

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Air Tickets just came through for next week. Wooop!! 6 Days!! 6 DAYS!!!!

 

Posted Image

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Does not bode well for the start of my trip on the 17th. GFS is showing a some decent moisture and a western trough starting to set up for the first days of my trip and I've come to learn that whatever the models say is going to happen 2 weeks out, it's probably going to be the exact opposite :p Certainly looks a little ridgy to start with but no real moisture issues and some subtle disturbances over W texas would lead to some good chase days if the 6z GFS is to believed on the 9th and the 10th. Still plenty of time for models to swing one way or the other.

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Absolutely agree Nathan, there is way way too much doom and gloom all over facebook and twatter from our american cousins!

 

Think some expect High Risks on a weekly basis but the harsh reality is only 1 High Risk in the last 2 years not including 24th May 2011 and that was April 14th 2012.

 

Give me Slights and Moderates all day long over those, as these are the days that can spring surprises (S Dakota May 2011) Campo (May 2010) etc etc even May 25th 2012 was quite a surprise.

 

We will all have fun doing our hobby that we love and are priveliged to do and I am sure there will be some surprises over the next 8 weeks!

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We will all have fun doing our hobby that we love and are priveliged to do and I am sure there will be some surprises over the next 8 weeks!

You don't have to sell it to me Paul and I'm not going LOL.There is absolutely nothing I'd rather be doing this May than chasing storms and steak on the high plains, but unfortunately work and research and home issues once again preclude me from doing what I love to do.I will however happily settle for a virtual role following the tour in the cool twilight of the late Hampshire spring and wish you all plenty of good fortune in finding the storms.

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More steps in the right direction on the overnight GFS for the middle of next week onwards (8th on)Increasingly decent overall synoptics and moisture return into the southern plains - detail at this range taken with low confidence of course but it's not half bad at this stage now.

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I would say Confidence is increasing by the day actually Neil. Have been watching the 9th and 10th since it came into the Days 15 & 16 range and every single run has shown it to be exactly the same. It is looking like a nice Caprock Magic Dryline day to me, only thing just not there is the upper flow so Large Hail could be the primary threat, but Supercells should be on tap with nearly 4,000jkg of Cape and decent Moisture running up the Caprock.

 

Todays 00z was showing this.

 

post-24-0-80680100-1367483481_thumb.png - Thursday 9th May

 

post-24-0-16539900-1367483503_thumb.png - Moisture

 

 

 

 

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Certainly an active weekend coming up but longer range models look more positive with a more mobile pattern by the looks.

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Here's an interesting chart. It displays the number of days since the last tornado warning issued by each local NWS office: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/nws/days_since.php?phenomena=TO&significance=W Most of OK at 25 days and NC TX at 92 days. Just about sums-up the season so far, although I have a suspicion that it's all about to change.

Edited by nsrobins
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