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Dorsetbred

2013 Chasing Season

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Reading your item from the Farmers Almanac reminded me of something I was once told.

The Indian Chief thought that it was going to be a bad winter so he sent all the braves out to collect wood. As he watched them return laden with timber from the forest he suddenly felt that he ought to check his forecast so he phoned the local met office.

"Tell me, is it going to be a bad winter?"

"Yes" said the forecaster " it will be a bad one"

So the Chief told the braves that they didn't have enough wood and sent them back into the forest again. They returned with more wood but once again the Chief had doubts and he called the forecaster to confirm.

"It is going to be a really severe winter" replied the forecaster.

The Chief look at the wood store, decided that more was required and the braves were dispatched back in to forest. The Chief called the forecaster.

"Are you sure it's going to be a really severe winter"

"Look" said the forecaster "its definitely going to be the worst winter on record - the Indians are gathering wood like crazy!""

Tom, was this before or after they consulted Punxsutawney PhilPosted Image

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Looking like some big storms developing in Louisiana, Texas and up into Oklahoma this weekend, big area of LP over these areas, humid winds from GOM colliding with a deep arctic surge, could make for an interesting recipe!

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Looking like some big storms developing in Louisiana, Texas and up into Oklahoma this weekend, big area of LP over these areas, humid winds from GOM colliding with a deep arctic surge, could make for an interesting recipe!

Looking like snow anywhere north of I40, more moisture for the Spring, when it comes

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really wish I was going this year :(

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The season so far....

post-6140-0-25407700-1363937436_thumb.jp

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Thanks for posting that Gail, saw that earlier myself, amazing the rotation going the other way (r-l) seeing as you guys are S Hemisphere, the hook shape on a radar grab I have seen is also amazing being back to front with the hook on the SW Flank.

Paul S

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It didn't occur to me that it would be like water going down a drain in the opposite direction between the hemispheres.

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It didn't occur to me that it would be like water going down a drain in the opposite direction between the hemispheres.

Apparently it has a similar effect on curly hair i.e. anti clockwise north of the equator.

Tom

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FOR ALL ON STORM CHASE TOUR 3 GOING OUT A DAY EARLY. GOOD OFFER VIA EBOOKERS FOR BEST WESTERN IRVING, CURRENTLY 20% OFF AND FREE UPGRADE TO TWIN ROOM AND FULL BREAKFAST. ALSO IF BOOKING BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ADD PROMO CODE HOTEL15 FOR ANOTHER 15% OFF AS I GOT EMAIL TODAY. JUST COST ME £41 FOR A ROOM :-)

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To Whet the appetite for those that cant wait until the next 6 or so weeks.

Have been playing around with Stacking Lightning Images, remember this will not work in Microsoft Ice so with a little help from Mr Vicary have a program that even I can use (Yes amazing as that sounds)

Just worked on 2 of mine so far, 1 from Arizona in 2011 and one from Last years Highly Electrical Plainview (Texas) Supercell from 1st June 2012

The Results are not everyones cup of tea but will certainly ve having more goes at this in the 2013 Tornado and Arizona Season, Uk ?? Pfft you must be Joking you actually need more than 1 Strike per Storm.

post-24-0-47347900-1364309675_thumb.jpg - Plainview Supercell 1st June 2012

post-24-0-53239800-1364309713_thumb.jpg - Tucson Severe Storm 24th August 2011

Regards

Paul S

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To Whet the appetite for those that cant wait until the next 6 or so weeks.

Have been playing around with Stacking Lightning Images, remember this will not work in Microsoft Ice so with a little help from Mr Vicary have a program that even I can use (Yes amazing as that sounds)

Just worked on 2 of mine so far, 1 from Arizona in 2011 and one from Last years Highly Electrical Plainview (Texas) Supercell from 1st June 2012

The Results are not everyones cup of tea but will certainly ve having more goes at this in the 2013 Tornado and Arizona Season, Uk ?? Pfft you must be Joking you actually need more than 1 Strike per Storm.

post-24-0-53239800-1364309713_thumb.jpg - Tucson Severe Storm 24th August 2011

Regards

Paul S

Interesting when the shots are all piled up, as it shows a good lightning "Bears Cage" on the lower LHS, not THE place to be sat. Edited by Dorsetbred

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nice find there sir!,

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On the topic of hotels, Travelodge Terminal 5 are charging £21 for a room. According to the website National Express run a hotel hoppa to the airport which is 2 miles away for £4...A bit of a bargain if you're not a morning person!

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Ladies and Gents, Pretty sure now after looking at a blend of most models that Spring Proper is about to start in Tornado Alley.

Looking like a significant pattern change will occur from the 9th April onwards and troughing should ensue, this could be the start of an active period of weather.

Let the Fun and Games Begin!

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Looks like very good moisture advection/low level jet from next weekeend on.

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Ladies and Gents, Pretty sure now after looking at a blend of most models that Spring Proper is about to start in Tornado Alley.

Looking like a significant pattern change will occur from the 9th April onwards and troughing should ensue, this could be the start of an active period of weather.

Let the Fun and Games Begin!

So Paul, given your analysis, and the one I posted WAY back on March 23rd, from the Farmers Almanac, which said

April 2013

8th-11th. Sunny initially, then very unsettled weather arrives from the west for Colorado and Plains

It's good see modern technology keep up with traditional methods, isn't it?Posted Image

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Yep Looking like a run of some great Tornado Days and the Fabled Dryline Set-Up

Lucky Buggers Posted Image

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS - D8...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER

THE WRN CONUS AFTER ABOUT D7 WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN

STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE

PLAINS...WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TIMING OF EMBEDDED

SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DRYLINE

SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM KS INTO

OK AND TX. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER

DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS NRN OK BY 00Z ON THE 9TH.

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*Rubs hands with glee* Timing couldn't be any more perfect, mid April will be relatively quiet for me workwise :D

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Monday 8th April - Dryline Tornado Event

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MON/D7...

DESPITE SHORT TERM DISCREPANCIES...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

DEVELOPING A WRN TROUGH...AND EJECTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE INTO THE

PLAINS ON MON/D7. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS

INTO OK BY MON...SUGGESTING AN UNBROKEN FETCH FROM THE GULF...WHILE

THE ECMWF MIXES DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S.

REGARDLESS...IF THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HOLDS TRUE...A DRYLINE

SUPERCELL EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

TORNADO DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AS STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR

PROFILES WILL BOTH FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. HOWEVER...GIVEN

MOISTURE QUALITY QUESTIONS...TIMING OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND

RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT AREA...NO AREA WILL BE OUTLINED AT THIS

TIME.

9th Looks like a Significant Event likely across the Arklatex!

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Are the SPC usually this bullish this far out? At the moment my Monday lectures are out of the window!

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Had nearly 1.5 inches of rain here today, been an absolute washout. Much of the same tomorrow. The added moisture can't harm storm chances surely!

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Right, gonna splash some cash and get some internet sorted for next week. Student loan comes through soon so it's all good...

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