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Dorsetbred

2013 Chasing Season

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The season is a comin', The season is a comin'

As the Sherminator reminds us with just over 70days to go, before the invasion into the States, I wondered what's people's view on the up and coming season might be. I know a lot of folks have migrated to FB, but I thought it would be interesting to view thoughts on here.

Looking around, the winter in the Central Northern USA has been cold, but has also gained the benefit of a lot of moisture in the form of snow.

Even today the seasons biggest storm is set to hit Denver with 11-14" snowfall, all good ground moisture.

Along with that temperatures in the GOM appear slightly higher than average values, with between 3 - 6F above normal.

Likely to mean anything, well that's why I thought it might raise some personal points of view on here?

What do you think?

Of course right now there's always the good ol' Jet stream position to include, but of course that is determined on a lot more than simple facts...

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I have a hunch this Season is going to be mostly East of the I-35 Corridoor, places like Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas could be hit harder than recent years more especially the early part of May, expecting the Northern Plains to be a slow starter this year and not until June we start seeing the Dakotas come into play. Western Kansas and the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, along with the Colorado Prairies could be another dustbowl in 2013!

Looks a traditional Neutral year to me but if we can get a trend towards El Nino late winter into early spring then the above could change quite quickly!

Paul S

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A quick check on the real time stream flow suggests central Texas is 10% of average or LOWER on annual water flow.

Oklahoma is somehwat higher especially eastern OK.

Kansas is also below 20% of average.

So Texas is looking to be the dustbowl you mention.

Edited by Dorsetbred

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A review of the 2013 Hurricane season, identifed the following:

It appears that there is a moderate chance (30-50%) that El Niño will develop for the 2013.

Most statistical and dynamical forecast models indicate that neutral conditions will persist through the 2012/2013 winter, with the majority of forecast models continuing to predict neutral conditions for the upcoming spring in the Nino 3.4 region (5°S-5°N, 120°-170°W).

The ECMWF model appears to be somewhat more aggressive at warming during the spring months than several of the other forecasts, with several ensemble members indicating SSTs exceeding 0.5°C by May for the Nino 3.4 region In general, this model has the highest levels of skill at predicting ENSO events, and consequently, there appears to be some likelihood that an El Niño will develop.

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Some amazing snow totals coming out of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle and parts of Kansas from this Storm, have heard of 4-5ft Drifts near Woodward for instance.

Love it when the Plains gets mullered by snow in the late winter months, we always seem to have a good chase season after that, 2010 is a case in point after a very snowy 09/10 winter for Tornado Alley!

Paul S

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Yeah was watching some of reeds videos from there, amazing totals! Did you see the cars abandoned just outside of Amarillo? Posted Image

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Hey Paul, 19 inches of snow (second highest storm total ever) for Amarillo, and almost as much in Woodward OK, saw a news story from there, the snow is heavy and wet, caving in (flat?) roofs in the town . Maybe it won't be quite as dusty this year in north/west TX.

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One good this has come from this already, a Sonic roof collapsed from the snow in Alva :D

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One good this has come from this already, a Sonic roof collapsed from the snow in Alva Posted Image

I bet that went down well

Edited by Tom Lynch

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Hey Paul, 19 inches of snow (second highest storm total ever) for Amarillo, and almost as much in Woodward OK, saw a news story from there, the snow is heavy and wet, caving in (flat?) roofs in the town . Maybe it won't be quite as dusty this year in north/west TX.

Damn Right Roger - Need all that moisture to seep into the ground, cold late winter and cold early spring for the Plains ??

One good this has come from this already, a Sonic roof collapsed from the snow in Alva Posted Image

Woohoo Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image God Forsakane Place should be nuked!

I bet that went down well

Boom Boom!

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I have a hunch this Season is going to be mostly East of the I-35 Corridoor, places like Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas could be hit harder than recent years more especially the early part of May, expecting the Northern Plains to be a slow starter this year and not until June we start seeing the Dakotas come into play. Western Kansas and the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, along with the Colorado Prairies could be another dustbowl in 2013!

Looks a traditional Neutral year to me but if we can get a trend towards El Nino late winter into early spring then the above could change quite quickly!

Paul S

<flashes back to T1 2011> Posted ImagePosted Image

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Yes but the Central Plains and Northern Plains end of May and June were fantastic in 2011, the added snowcover from the last week or so is only going to help in trapping moisture in the drought hit areas, 2010/2011 winter was not especially cold or snowy, whereas 2009/2010 was (Remember the -23c near Elk City that winter)

If we can get some more active weather from the Sub Tropical Jet affecting Texas things can and will change very quickly.

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Yes but the Central Plains and Northern Plains end of May and June were fantastic in 2011, the added snowcover from the last week or so is only going to help in trapping moisture in the drought hit areas, 2010/2011 winter was not especially cold or snowy, whereas 2009/2010 was (Remember the -23c near Elk City that winter)

If we can get some more active weather from the Sub Tropical Jet affecting Texas things can and will change very quickly.

Fair point..I was just surprised to see you mention the States East of I-30 as the melt from the severe winter should add significant ground moisture into the Central Plains. It's only a tiny piece of the puzzle but assuming the Jet Stream doesn't decide to apply for permanent residency in Canada I think we could be in for a more traditional season possibly more Northerly inclined.

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Hey Paul, 19 inches of snow (second highest storm total ever) for Amarillo, and almost as much in Woodward OK, saw a news story from there, the snow is heavy and wet, caving in (flat?) roofs in the town . Maybe it won't be quite as dusty this year in north/west TX.

It is good wholesome wet snow, not that blow around stuff, that'll certainly help the droughtPosted Image

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Certainly Will Quentin

As I said in an earlier post, winter snowfalls will help with drought relief and should give us a much better Tornado Season with additional "Trapped" Moisture in the ground.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzards-bring-drought-relief/7018596

Good article above! Posted Image

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yes, looks more positive now for spring chasing than a month or two ago. The snow fall is good.

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Posted · Hidden by Dorsetbred, March 6, 2013 - event didn't happen forecast incorrect
Hidden by Dorsetbred, March 6, 2013 - event didn't happen forecast incorrect

Opportunity arises at the end of this coming week, so let's see.

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Well Quentin

As it stands this season might prove to be a normal season, for what that is worth. I would say the snow may help to contibute to moisture in the ground. Will need think more about this.

Tom

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Another good snowstorm is set to hit the Denver area today, and then move out onto the plains. Hi winds and blowing snow with and average of 9" of snow expected in Colorado and around the 4-6" mark as it hits the plains.

More good moisture.

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Posted 2 days ago: (TheWeatherSpace.com) -

Both 2011 and 2012 Tornado Seasons were predicted here at TheWeatherSpace.com and now the outlook for 2013 is for a major tornado season.

Last year, my prediction was for a below-average tornado season (link to article). This was realized as the season was below average, with what was called the 'Death Ridge' pattern. This year will be very different.

If I am correct, the northwest flow over California will bring the storms further south, which targets the Central and Southern Plains, then up into the Great Lakes with the surface lows. Such scenarios playing out would be 1999, 2010, 1974, and 2011 type upper level dynamics.

This type of pattern favors the Great Plains to Arkansas, Texas, and Missouri to regain their status as the 'real' Tornado Alley, but also favors similar outbreaks across the Southeastern USA like 2011's season.

This is what I call a 'Broad Warm Sector' season, where the surface lows tend to be from the Plains to the Great Lakes regions, extending the broad warm air mass south of there to produce multiple violent tornado outbreaks from the Central to Eastern USA.

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Posted 2 days ago: (TheWeatherSpace.com) -

Both 2011 and 2012 Tornado Seasons were predicted here at TheWeatherSpace.com and now the outlook for 2013 is for a major tornado season.

Last year, my prediction was for a below-average tornado season (link to article). This was realized as the season was below average, with what was called the 'Death Ridge' pattern. This year will be very different.

If I am correct, the northwest flow over California will bring the storms further south, which targets the Central and Southern Plains, then up into the Great Lakes with the surface lows. Such scenarios playing out would be 1999, 2010, 1974, and 2011 type upper level dynamics.

This type of pattern favors the Great Plains to Arkansas, Texas, and Missouri to regain their status as the 'real' Tornado Alley, but also favors similar outbreaks across the Southeastern USA like 2011's season.

This is what I call a 'Broad Warm Sector' season, where the surface lows tend to be from the Plains to the Great Lakes regions, extending the broad warm air mass south of there to produce multiple violent tornado outbreaks from the Central to Eastern USA.

I sure hope that's true :p

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Well whatever the season brings and where it delivers, whilst we are out on the Plains , we will be there.

Tom

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Right, I have consulted the Oracle or ALL Oracle's for the USA weather(No not GRASS STRIMMER), and here is the reply I have been given:

April 2013

1st-3rd. Mostly fair.

4th-7th. Pleasant at first, then showers over the Rockies and Plains, followed by fair skies.

8th-11th. Sunny initially, then very unsettled weather arrives from the west for Colorado and Plains.

12th-15th. Sunny.

16th-19th. Pleasant, turning unsettled, with showers for most sections, especially Kansas.

20th-23rd. Mostly fair.

24th-27th. Very unsettled for Montana south to Colorado east.

28th-30th. Pleasantly mild.

May 2013

1st-3rd. Pleasant, then unsettled; wet Colorado and the Plains east.

4th-7th. A return to dry, tranquil conditions.

8th-11th. Severe thunderstorms for Montana south to Colorado, some storms may have damaging winds, vivid lightning, downpours and hail; moving east over the Plains.

12th-15th. Sunny, then unsettled; showers over the Rockies; wet to Nebraska, Dakotas.

16th-19th. Increasing sunshine.

20th-23rd. Turning unsettled Colorado and the Plains.

24th-27th. Mostly sunny.

28th-31st. Light showers Rockies east.

June 2013

1st-3rd. Fair, then turning unsettled over Colorado.

4th-7th. Dangerous thunderstorms for the Dakotas south to Kansas. Possible tornado weather in Kansas, Missouri and parts of Nebraska and Iowa.

8th-11th. Warm, then showers for Rockies through Nebraska, Dakotas.

12th-15th. Sunshine east into the Plains.

16th-19th. Fair, then big thunderstorms over the Rockies and the Plains States.

20th-23rd. Thunderstorms Missouri, followed by hot and dry conditions.

24th-27th. Fair, then light rain.

The Oracle of ALL Oracle's has spoken, let us now see.

PS This is from the US Farmers Almanac, what better source could exist?

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Reading your item from the Farmers Almanac reminded me of something I was once told.

The Indian Chief thought that it was going to be a bad winter so he sent all the braves out to collect wood. As he watched them return laden with timber from the forest he suddenly felt that he ought to check his forecast so he phoned the local met office.

"Tell me, is it going to be a bad winter?"

"Yes" said the forecaster " it will be a bad one"

So the Chief told the braves that they didn't have enough wood and sent them back into the forest again. They returned with more wood but once again the Chief had doubts and he called the forecaster to confirm.

"It is going to be a really severe winter" replied the forecaster.

The Chief look at the wood store, decided that more was required and the braves were dispatched back in to forest. The Chief called the forecaster.

"Are you sure it's going to be a really severe winter"

"Look" said the forecaster "its definitely going to be the worst winter on record - the Indians are gathering wood like crazy!""

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