winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[nick sussex]

Sure no clear signs...

You need think outside a bit if the Models overplay the Atlantic we get the high over us. If they have overplayed then GH is more likely.

There is no true signal for the Atlantic to come back so I reckon we could say good bye to that for a while. There is the possibility that we get Greenland heights but we are unaffected is believe this is the most likely with a small attack from the SW. It's almost like its trying to give us a easterly and Northerly at the same time what wins well we should have a clearer view this weekend.

Unfortunately a west based negative NAO is a waste of time for the UK and that's what the anomaly chart you posted shows. Theres been one single operational run out of countless over the last few days that's even got close to bringing some Arctic air southwards.

Also bear in mind that anomalies are one thing and a proper Greenland high is another.In terms of thinking outside of the box, I'm happy to do that when a pattern needs a small tweek ie the Euro troughing edging a bit further north which is something that's had a lot of debate over the last few days but really if I could find a way of talking up a Greenland high I would,its a longshot at present and not the favoured option.

Its not just getting a high there but the right jet track for the UK and also the high being far enough east to deliver to the UK not freeze the fish in the western Atlantic!

In terms of the Atlantic yes I agree its not full of life so the high might hang around a while longer but I think its unrealistic and unfair on the long suffering netweather members to raise expectations when I can't make a good enough case for something.

So for the moment its a low probability chance but not totally impossible, don't worry if the odds improve I'll be the first to talk about it!

[Ian Brown]

Less energy over the top than the 00z. Nothing that interesting at present, but trends are interestin.

The jet profile is really all wrong with that positive tilting to the West and then North West of the High I think it is a case of a gradual sinker as the Atlantic edges back in, though it may take longer to shift the High than the GFS is predicting.

[UV-RAY]

Below average for the northern half of the UK (in the main), average or a little above average further south. On another subject, the precip anomaly for the remainder of Feb is entertainingly dry!

Entertainingly dry, I like that one.

[La Bise]

Overall theme for the northern half of the country seems to be "drying out" for this month and the next (as per CFS anom). Can't say I'm unhappy to see that...

[Frosty.]

It's worth comparing the Ecm 00z & 12z, the 12z is showing the anticyclone on the wane and beginning to drift southeast as the gfs has shown today, it's also what the met office are currently expecting to occur and will then be followed by less cold/milder more typical weather into early march but there could be a few surprises along the way, there has been some interesting ensembles showing a wintry blast during early march but i'm not going to build my hopes up on that unless we get more support, in the meantime it's a very blocked picture and much colder weather is on the way with some light flurries in eastern/se england from thursday onwards, cold and dry in most of the uk with widespread frosts and probably increasing amounts of sunshine away from the cloudier south, similar for the weekend and into next week.

[chionomaniac]

New thread coming soon so no starting long convoluted posts please.

[chionomaniac]

New thread here