winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[Polar Maritime]

And if we all did the same as steve, nobody would post on the model output discussion would they?

Anyway, it looks like becoming much colder in the days ahead but sunshine becoming more restricted to sheltered parts of the west and north with a lot of cloud feeding in from the east, perhaps with scattered light snow grains or flurries but nothing significant, most areas becoming dry, cold and dull with a nagging Ely breeze the further south you are.

Yes Frost'y you are one of only a handful of people on here that post all year round, we all have out weather preferences, as i do, just because SM has given up this winter it does not mean the weather will to... A few weeks left of winter yet, and then there's Spring to look forward to !

Edited February 17, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Tamara]

Well, there is very good agreement for High pressure to be established and bring an easterly airstream across the UK. From a snow POV the frustration is understandable (to a degree) with the adjustments made in the models, but there is still a chance of developments over the nearby continent giving some places an opportunity.Also the SW approaches still need to be watched for possibilities there further on in time.

Snow will be a hoped for bonus, but a brisk easterly wind, low dewpoints and some hard frosts is welcome to me for sure . Great weather pattern and so much better than the interminable atlantic driven wet weather we have seen for so long (irrespective of whatever track the jet stream has taken)

Edited February 17, 2013 by Tamara Road

[IDO]

06z GEFS:

Showing similar to 0z and ECM; a brief cold spell followed by a trend towards average plus. Strong continuity with the last few GEFS runs for an end to further cold in the medium term.

Though temps next week appear to suggest cool rather than cold (away from the wind); they hold up quite well, so maybe a sunny high?

Edited February 17, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Froze were the Days]

well I guess you should make the most of it before they go into hibernation until november

As for this cold spell, I think things could change significantly and some may have cut and run a bit too early?

I do love your positivity Frosty - agreed even to Thursday/Friday is along way off in Met terms and small 'tweaks' can make a difference, I think a lot of people on this forum are going by the general trend of HP becoming more established over the UK. and have become disheartened. First time in yonks HP is on the scene when we don't really want it synoptically speaking...and yes too I'll be back in November, as TEITS mentioned searching for heatwaves which equals humidity doesn't do it for me.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[Derecho]

Good Morning All

Output this morning hasn't seen the high move north. unfortunately, but considering the spell of wet weather we saw around Christmas it could be worse. Cold and Sunny would be my take away from the SE and the channel Islands, but as I say it could be a lot worse and indeed very winter like.

Cloud cover remains uncertain and with the windchill it will definitely feel a lot colder, with temperatures dipping below freezing for many, temps generically around 2 - 3C below average.

What happens to the high is anybodys guess at the moment, but the jet profile over the USA from day 6 - 14 generally doesn't favour a particularly positive NAO. GFS once again attempts to dislodge the PV over NW Russia but sinks the HP after making an attempt to move NW somewhat, but FI usually likes to be overly progressive anyway.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Bitterly disappointed with how the last 24 to 36 hrs have downgraded on the models but im not suprised at all.

Its happened sooo many times,as soon as the models start the downgrade it just seems to gather momentum.

Hopefully some in the SE might get a covering next week but for the vast majority it just looks cold and dry.

[Frosty.]

I do love your positivity Frosty - agreed even to Thursday/Friday is along way off in Met terms and small 'tweaks' can make a difference, I think a lot of people on this forum are going by the general trend of HP becoming more established over the UK. and have become disheartened. First time in yonks it looks like we're having high pressure become established over the country when we don't really want it synoptically speaking...and yes too I'll be back in November, as TEITS mentioned searching for heatwaves which equals humidity doesn't do it for me.

Thanks Froze, yes there could be some crucial tweaks which improve our chances, this was always looking like a non event for the north anyway but for the south to also miss out would be very bad luck indeed, still enough going on to maintain interest though with every new model run bringing the chance of something more potent.

[UV-RAY]

Bitterly disappointed with how the last 24 to 36 hrs have downgraded on the models but im not suprised at all.

Its happened sooo many times,as soon as the models start the downgrade it just seems to gather momentum.

Hopefully some in the SE might get a covering next week but for the vast majority it just looks cold and dry.

The models haven't done a good job of controlling the weather this winter, they are obviously in need of a few tweaks here and there.

[Berty73]

My 1st post on here and as someone who cannot read charts properly I very much value the informed comments on here by the more seasoned and level headed members. I found it quite sad to see SM saying he isn't going to post again on here but after reading some of the newer posters comments recently I completely understand the mans frustration. Myself and I dare say 95% of others are now going to loose a valuable source of information because of a small minded few. Thanks again for all the QUALITY information you have provided over the last few months, whatever happened to good old pleasant debates made for far better reading! Sorry Mods of topic but for people looking to learn SM, GP, IB, JH, NS etc... Are invaluable FACT!

[MR EXTREMES]

Instability can come with in a easterly flow I'm back on the fence but anything could happen in the next few days.

Position of high will change upgrades down grades will continue.

If this turns out to be a none event I will certainly remember 2013 winter as many near misses but a winter were we atleast had snow here.

But its not over yet by far any more movement south then it will be a fail.

[nick sussex]

These damn easterlies are so frustrating for the UK and I've seen many disappear south when I was in the UK. As I said yesterday I would gladly have just cold rain here if it means a good shunt north in the pattern which would bring more fun to more areas of the UK.

Being very lucky to have the Pyrenees here I see snow from my terrace everyday during the winter so for heavens sake models move the pattern north!

I'm beginning to feel like Public Enemy No 1 with all this talk of the cold heading into France!

So going back to the models theres still a decent cluster of GEFS members who have the pattern further north and if the initial convective window falls flat theres still another opportunity as energy disrupts off that troughing to the west, the models don't agree on how this develops, re how far north and how deep low pressure will be in the northern Med, also whether this pivots edging more instability further nw towards the UK.

For this reason theres still a chance of more snow potential more especially towards the south and se. Unfortunately the set up isn't that good for more northern areas unless theres a big adjustment northwards.

I can imagine its very frustrating because initially there were more worries about the cold pool, then once this improved the models then decided to edge the pattern further south.

Again this is always the problem with easterlies and why generally you're always much better with a Greenland high something which has been totally absent during the winter.

At this timeframe theres still a margin for error with northwards/southwards corrections so I really hope its the former, even a hundred miles further north could make such a difference for some areas.

[Frosty.]

It is a lovely day just been out for a good walk.

We clash often Steve, but I think everyone respects your input and contributions when the set-up hasn't necessarily favoured your location, it's a shame that the synoptics that 'deliver' for where many of the forum members live are so hard to achieve and it is such a frustrating model watching experience.

If it was going to favour anyones location it would have been steves, but there still looks like being some snow flurries for the ne, e and se from midweek onwards, the really cold air pushes in after that weak drizzly front clears away to the southwest later on tuesday but it does look cloudy, cold and dry for many so frosts will probably only be slight but sharper where skies clear.

[IDO]

5-7 day?... the anomoly charts are agreeing that itll be longer then that...of course they are predictions and might not happen. but easterlies at this time of the year do seem hard shift. i reckon there will be along time before the atlantic features.

The extended ECM ensembles:

The mean rising from 2.5c to 7.5c over the last six days of the 15 day ens. There are members keeping a colder outlook so you could be right, the placement of that high being the main variable, but at the moment both the op and mean keep it to a 5-7 day cold spell.

[Tamara]

The extended ECM ensembles:

The mean rising from 2.5c to 7.5c over the last six days of the 15 day ens. There are members keeping a colder outlook so you could be right, the placement of that high being the main variable, but at the moment both the op and mean keep it to a 5-7 day cold spell.

People will be viewing those rather less flatteringly in terms of the merit they actually deserve because snow is considered the pre-requisite to go along with them I think that they are excellent myself and quite impressive agreement for some very cold days. I realise these numbers are for the south east of England but I think we can use the ensembles as a yardstick for general considerations and possibilities, even if folk in the North will understandably be disappointed

Edited February 17, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Methuselah]

I think criticising some of the posters who were not believing a big cold spell to be on the way is a bit harsh.

Ok, some of us might not deliver long forecasts with lots of charts, but ask yourself the question - how many times has a day after tomorrow easterly actually happened when shown at over seven days out on the models?

The fact that some posters are more realistic should not be a reason for criticism.

I quite agree, RD.

When you consider that the caution, coming from the more-knowledgeable members (John Holmes, Ian Ferguson et. al.) as it did, was entirely justified: indeed, the forecast skew-T/lapse rate conditions have never looked favorable with respect to much in the way of heavy convective, widespread snowfalls...

I wish they did though...

Thanks BS, Frustration got the better of me (normally a lurker / not poster) but it needed saying.

Welcome to NW, day1973...

[oldsnowywizard]

Easy one to sort this .... Mods can you create a hunting for warmth/spring thread and also a hunting for cold..? That way members can post in the thread which suits their agenda. Where there are opinions there will always be a clash. It gets annoying trawling through posts designed to cause a response . We are adults so let's behave like adults. The aforementioned posters are great and everyone enjoys their thoughts and opinions .. It doesn't mean they are right but it is fun to ride the optimism train. Now lets forget and move on

Back to the models ......

[Frosty.]

tbh i think frustration has crept in as snow chances have diminished...

It's still going to feel very cold from wednesday, a little sooner for some areas and there will be snow flurries on the eastern side of the uk, windchill in the south will become higher due to a moderate Easterly or SEly breeze from a frozen continent, not too nice for outdoor working. Edited February 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[Purga]

Looks like the pattern is shifting gradually south as time ticks by which is OK-ish for us down on the south coast but not such fun for folks further north who want cold and snow. Still we are normally the one's to suffer cold rain or sleet when most other places are enjoying the snow i.e. in January just gone! Not much snow looking likely here, however, more like a keen cold easterly especially right on the coast / beach or up on the South Downs - hoping for a bit of a surprise dusting maybe?

The ENS both GFS & ECM look pretty soild on a warm up after next weekend as many have commented on

Looks like the last of the winter cold (as opposed to the summer wine ) and a great pity there has been no GH otherwise it could have been so much better. Guess it will come out of hibernation in May thru' to about October

Edited February 17, 2013 by Purga

[reef]

Please stick to the models.

Almost all of the last few pages had absolutely nothing to do with them. If any of your posts arent here anymore from the last couple of hours then thats why. People dont want to spend ages reading through tantrums, bickering and arguing about what this thread should contain.

[Purga]

I quite agree, RD.

When you consider that the caution, coming from the more-knowledgeable members (John Holmes, Ian Ferguson et. al.) as it did, was entirely justified: indeed, the forecast skew-T/lapse rate conditions have never looked favorable with respect to much in the way of heavy convective, widespread snowfalls...

I wish they did though...

Welcome to NW, day1973...

You never welcomed me RP ... only joking !

[Methuselah]

Am I missing something here? This is the winter thread and it is winter. The majority of people on here here are snow lovers and look forward to the possibility of snowfall. Its hardly a cold bias. Members such as Steve Murr would be greatly missed without their invaluable contributions.Snowfall in my own region is a rarity and we coasties rely on their knowledge to tell it as it is.As long as winter remains I am always hopeful of snow. The same sentiments apply when spring arrives and I hope for a glorious summer.

Of course it's winter, kent; but that doesn't disallow anyone who's no great fan of snow from posting here. And, anyway; shouldn't we all be working in concert, so that our collective weather-forecasting abilities improve, as a whole?

It's not a competition...

You never welcomed me RP ... only joking !

Welcome to NW, Purga...

[Timmytour]

I think the atmosphere in here will be transformed come tuesday evening. For me this is one Easterly that is being underplayed by the models before it really gets going. An increasing depth to the low pressure forming in the western Med which does not progress as far east as currently modelled will, I believe, hold the key

[Frosty.]

I think the atmosphere in here will be transformed come tuesday evening. For me this is one Easterly that is being underplayed by the models before it really gets going. An increasing depth to the low pressure forming in the western Med which does not progress as far east as currently modelled will, I believe, hold the key

That's a good point, those snow flurries across the east could become heavier and leave a covering, anyone else agree?

[billy]

That's a good point, those snow flurries across the east could become heavier and leave a covering, anyone else agree?

Yep i agree. But only because i live near the east coast.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

That's a good point, those snow flurries across the east could become heavier and leave a covering, anyone else agree?

when you say snow flurries in east how far north would they be im in the wash area