winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[london-snow]

^^ & the NAVGEM 6z.

I do hope you continue to post your thoughts on here steve as i very much respect you're input.

Although at times i totally understand you're frustrations with regards to other comments made by different posters.

Let's hope that the likes of the nogaps is onto something here so that winter goes out on a bang and i go into summer hibernation a happy man. Going by the ecm postage stamps this morning i feel there is no clear trend as of yet regarding the eventual placement of the high. So for now i remain very interested & look forward to the 12z.

Keep up the great work mate.

L~S

[bluearmy]

As I posted yesterday morning steve, you alerted us to the nwp overdoing the euro trough prior to the last cold spell as this one came onto cross model agreement. Sadly, it seems that's happening again. However, there is still time for subtle changes which could have larger ramifications.

[Timmytour]

Just as a reminder of how chart can change in a five day timeframe....

The 6z as it saw tomorrow from five days away......

and how it saw it from two days away.....

Shifts are still very possible!

[IDO]

For what its worth, GFS in FI finishes the Winter with a complete absence of HLB with a taste of Spring in the South (14c) and cyclonic westerlies battling a Euro High.

[BM4PM]

While its cold anougth for snow there's allways a chance.met office are still forecasting ppn spreading in from the southwest next weekend.i still live in hope that models aren't seeing something yet .

[Guest]

It's a long way out at +192hrs but with not dissimilar 500 anomaly charts like this we have plenty of potential to look forward to. The end result is not yet set in stone

[snowmadchrisuk]

I would await tomorrows runs, Next weekend is never resolved on the Models a week away .. I have a sneaky feeling the High might be further West than currently shown , allowing some instability to get in to the East ...

[cooling climate]

Must admit I can not see a way back from this now to where we were yesterday

or the day before and it does now look as if it could have been quite a potent

and convective easterly with -12c uppers quite possible across the UK.

Would love to be wrong and will look forward to the afternoons runs but not holding

out much hope of a reprieve.

Edited February 17, 2013 by cooling climate

[shaky]

Of course Im sure everyone feels comfortable putting their eggs all in the 06z GFS basket-

The continent is far to warm now-

http://www.meteociel...0-120.GIF?17-12

Its been a long winter- My last model output post after todays 12s.

People now talking about the kink from europe at 144- Im sure I was talking about the energy over france for the last 3 days.

The disapointment in the last 2 days has been one of the 4 key factors being modelled incorrectly- thats the southern energy- Now replaced by a ridging azores high- im sure again that was put in my posts - in amoungst the so called hype..- perhaps some should read the detail.-

S

Are u saying you not gona be posting after the 12zs??if thats the case am gona miss your posts just like 90% of the people on this forum!!

[mushymanrob]

a downgrade suits me personally, but the gfs 06z is atm alone in suggesting the high will be further south. dont ignore it, but until other runs confirm a more southern centre then take it with a pinch of salt.

the anomoly charts both suggest the easterly with highs at a more nothern latitude and lows closer to our south.

[bobbydog]

winter's over on this chart-

[legritter]

Come on gang the pear is not guaranteed .tonights output could be totally different ,i mean the high could be modelled further north .or even further north west or north east ,low pressure to the south could be lower there are so many different outcomes at this range .dont get hitting the prozack just yet or you may be asleep when the fun starts .it is for us cold and snow fans a hard path in this country , the cold air is near so lets feel a bit more upbeat ,us NET WEATHER MODELLERS are a tough bunch lets have a few more runs ,catch up later .

[IDO]

THe ECM ensembles for De Bilt, not dissimilar to GFS, with a 5-7 day cold snap followed by a trend towards average temps:

So even if the 12z ECM op holds its placement of the high, to benefit the S/SE contingent, snow wise, there remains little longevity in this cold spell based on the ensemble's mean.

Edited February 17, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Cloud 10]

winter's over on this chart-

Could be coming back though...

http://modeles.meteo...h-0-6540.png?06

[bobbydog]

Could be coming back though...

http://modeles.meteo...h-0-6540.png?06

nice chart, just inside 'the reliable' as well.....

[UV-RAY]

The next five days looked nailed now with a dry and fairly cloudy affair, frosts limited to where there are any cloud breaks those in the West being best favoured for this.Thereafter I would say not much change at this point, dry, cool and often grey but at least dry.

[Frosty.]

Where's the easterly gone ?

France, Germany, Poland, Northern Italy

[london-snow]

winter's over on this chart-

Even as a hardcore coldie i will be happy if that chart verified after hopefully seeing winter out with a bang from the easterly.

Sunny & cool~warmish is my second weather preference. Its good for work & brings a smile to my face.

[Frosty.]

The next five days looked nailed now with a dry and fairly cloudy affair, frosts limited to where there are any cloud breaks those in the West being best favoured for this.Thereafter I would say not much change at this point, dry, cool and often grey but at least dry.

I also think northern scotland should be sunny all week with widespread frosts, nothing worse than being stuck under a persistent cloudsheet with nothing white coming down, may as well be sunny and cold than cloudy, dry and cold.

[UV-RAY]

I also think northern scotland should be sunny all week with widespread frosts, nothing worse than being stuck under a persistent cloudsheet with nothing white coming down, may as well be sunny and cold than cloudy, dry and cold.

I forgot to mention them Frosty, my mother-in-law won't be impressed. Looking an excellent week Notth of the border, a great week to bag some munro's

[Tim Bland]

Still looks good for a few flurries in the east / south east. It was never going to be a uk wide snowy spell. Meto still forecasting / hinting at a breakdown from the SW with more widespread snow risk. Not seeing this in the current NWP but maybe something that will show up soon?

The biggest disappointment for me this winter has been the lack of heights over Greenland, despite the ECM 32 dayer constantly signalling it along with the 500mb annomaly charts etc.

[Polar Maritime]

I forgot to mention them Frosty, my mother-in-law won't be impressed. Looking an excellent week Notth of the border, a great week to bag some munro's

Yes I've the same idea SI, should be a pleasant week in the Highlands.

[shaky]

Its me done for the winter.-

Theres been a disapointing trend of the type of people / posts developing in the last few days- ( in the minority ) & its just gets tiresome in the end.-

People that never make a forecast but with heinsite claim it was never going to happen anyway-

if thats the case we will never see any snow ever again-

Also a lot of bad feeling around the ol favourite 'IMBY'- as said, I dont ever recall anyone,especially those in the SW moaning when it looks good for others & then going on to wish it all away for everyone.

I dont need to post on here- half the time its just to show charts & images of whats happening.-

Anyway, the 12s will be out later, I expect the middle ground of all the models to be refined- & for some in the UK it still looks good especially if the wave of energy comes WNW from france.

Im still surprised at some of the maxima being modelled @ 3c for the south under -11c air.- 14c lapse rates seem quite high, although would be achievable in persistent sunshine, however a low cloud deck & flurries it will be nearer 1c.

I will post in the seasonal round up thread on my thoughts on the LRF for this winter. & in the regionals if the weather gets interesting..

Lovely dfay here today bright sunshine & warm

S

no worries it been good having your input on this forum!!since your gona be posting in the regional threads please make a trip into the midlands thread now and again if thats okay especially if things are looking on the up again later on:)!

[Frosty.]

well you are one of the very few posters that I actually bother to read in this thread Steve ..be a shame to see you leave, your posts are very easy to understand and very informative for someone who doesn't know how to read the models properly ..

regards IanG

And if we all did the same as steve, nobody would post on the model output discussion would they?

Anyway, it looks like becoming much colder in the days ahead but sunshine becoming more restricted to sheltered parts of the west and north with a lot of cloud feeding in from the east, perhaps with scattered light snow grains or flurries but nothing significant, most areas becoming dry, cold and dull with a nagging Ely breeze the further south you are.

[Methuselah]

If only the weather would do as it was told?