winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[TEITS]

This really is painful to watch. Each run is further south...

The margins run to run are tiny. Maybe 20 or less miles per run but cumulatively it starts to really add up. Based on the 06 by day five we are pretty much in UK High territory. It's really mid lat blocking now rather than HLB. More runs needed but the trend is clear and relentless IMHO. This run isn't exactly an outlier either by the standards of the 00z suite.

Jason

Edit by 132 a very significant cold pool is in evidence to our east. Maybe days 7-8 will be where the action is.

Yep I agree.

However like I keep saying it isn't until the end of the week into the weekend when snow showers could become heavier and more widespread. My fear though is if whats been predicted at +144 also trends S!

The biggest problem which has been consistent throughout is the HP is centred around Scotland. Ideally for the UK we want this to be centred towards Iceland. That is one hell of a shift N we need to see and unlikely now.

So this isn't going to be a classic E,ly but enough interest for those in the SE and E Anglia and especially for members in Kent.

[Harsh Climate]

Can't see this run going anywhere positive to be honest, there just seems to be too much energy heading north eastwards from the atlantic into geenland and svaalbard. I would be suprised if any heights build in those regions.

[frosty ground]

Not sure what your trying to imply there mate.

But I watched that entire set-up unfold and it still remains fresh in my memory, yes we certainly was down for those sub -15 uppers. (basically what affected france/north italy/parts of spain was shown a few hundered miles north, affecting us in the charts 48/72hours before the actual charts I posted.)

which easterly are you talking about the kate feb one?

Europe was not that cold so those uppers did not exist. If they were to hit the uk it would have been one rouge run.

[frosty ground]

Can't see this run going anywhere positive to be honest, there just seems to be too much energy heading north eastwards from the atlantic into geenland and svaalbard. I would be suprised if any heights build in those regions.

The high has formed to the west of greenland. Worst place for uk cold!

[IDO]

By Sunday still a long draw fetch for the south so still feeling cold:

[TEITS]

Perhaps that's what comes from taking hype too seriously? Better to take note of what the Met are saying, and why they are saying it, perhaps?

Anywho, so long as it stays cold, there's always potential...

I think we need to be clear about this.

What the models are showing today compared to recent days is far less convective potential and I still remain firm that the Met O were underestimating the amount of convection based on output over the last few days. However todays output fits in with the Met O forecast more accurately in my opinion and it seems they expected a shift S.

So before members start accusing other members of hyping things up, lets remember model output does change and we can only call it as we see it.

[bluearmy]

All of you missing icebergs shortwave. Too busy looking for the bad news you can't see the positives.

[Simonl]

Yep I agree.

However like I keep saying it isn't until the end of the week into the weekend when snow showers could become heavier and more widespread. My fear though is if whats been predicted at +144 also trends S!

The biggest problem which has been consistent throughout is the HP is centred around Scotland. Ideally for the UK we want this to be centred towards Iceland. That is one hell of a shift N we need to see and unlikely now.

So this isn't going to be a classic E,ly but enough interest for those in the SE and E Anglia and especially for members in Kent.

Do you think so? I guess right now, I am in a prime position for snowfall still.....That would, I take it, depend on no further shifts south by the High? Or would that still not affect the SE? It looks like an eastern coastal affair throughout...IF positioning stays the same.

Cheers.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Simonl

[Methuselah]

Please avoid personal sniping...

[TEITS]

Much better NOGAPS.

Shame its this model showing this though but its what we want to see.

[Blizzardo]

06z has more PV dropping down.. short term reduction in potential for longer term gain?

Exactly my thoughts.

[Ian Brown]

All of you missing icebergs shortwave. Too busy looking for the bad news you can't see the positives.

I'm definitely missing it ? Another run that sinks the High further South.

[chris55]

Well the small shortwave/kink moving from the East that was mentioned earlier is on the 06z, not up to much as it stands but certainly something to keep an eye on,

Over Poland

Moving West

EDIT, I hadn't missed it nick, was busy looking at a Europe map as I wasn't 100% sure the country next to Germany was Poland, lol. Thought I better get my facts right.

Edited February 17, 2013 by chris55

[SMU]

Of course Im sure everyone feels comfortable putting their eggs all in the 06z GFS basket-

The continent is far to warm now-

http://www.meteociel...0-120.GIF?17-12

Its been a long winter- My last model output post after todays 12s.

People now talking about the kink from europe at 144- Im sure I was talking about the energy over france for the last 3 days.

The disapointment in the last 2 days has been one of the 4 key factors being modelled incorrectly- thats the southern energy- Now replaced by a ridging azores high- im sure again that was put in my posts - in amoungst the so called hype..- perhaps some should read the detail.-

S

Edited February 17, 2013 by Steve Murr

[bobbydog]

just browsing through the frames of the last 3 GFS runs, there's very little difference other than a slight drift south. the noticeable thing, is how there is very little in the way of dominant features to drive the pattern. the whole pattern could drift about between runs in any direction. looking at the charts, it would seem on the face of it, to be a difficult, messy pattern to forecast. for example-

not so much isobars and discernible wind directions in this chart, more like someone has eaten spaghetti then thrown up on a picasso.

the slack flow is probably easy to follow for the models, therefore i cant see any sudden changes happening over the next few days. the 'easterly' is coming but it could strengthen or fade away as it gets closer. who knows yet really?...

[Ian Brown]

Exactly my thoughts.

Not really if you look at where it is going from day 8, low heights over Europe and jet over the top, it is only going to perpetuate the High remaining over or close to us.

[london-snow]

Much better NOGAPS.

Shame its this model showing this though but its what we want to see.

Yes teits excellent as you quite rightly say.

Just goes to prove that nothing is a given here & minor tweaks can have a dramatic effect on what weather we may receive.

[SMU]

^^ & the NAVGEM 6z.

[Methuselah]

A simple explanation, of one of the reasons, why widespread and heavy snowfalls might not have featured much, in recent MetO forecasts...

[Ian Brown]

With the persistence of the trough over Europe and what is now going to be a UK High we could see some big snowfall totals in Northern Italy and across much of France, with NE Spain seeing something too.

[cooling climate]

All of you missing icebergs shortwave. Too busy looking for the bad news you can't see the positives.

Yes its there but considering the changes from the 0z run yesterday to what we have in front of

us today we could be under a bartlet by t144. Just kidding but you get my drift.

If I was living in central southern Europe I would be very pleased by the synoptics this morning.

[Interitus]

Yes, further minor adjustments southwards, I wonder just how far south this will end up! I remember yesterday many were kicking up a fuss about the Met/BBC forecasts playing down the risk of snow well it looks like the Met Office were calling this pretty much bang on. They do have far more tools than then the publicly available model outputs we have access to.

It is not having more tools, it is all about the interpretation - taking stock and monitoring where longer range model output might be leading.

There is nobody at the Met Office going "BOOM!" at charts a week or more a away, at least not in public forecasts.

[bobbydog]

With the persistence of the trough over Europe and what is now going to be a UK High we could see some big snowfall totals in Northern Italy and across much of France, with NE Spain seeing something too.

i almost can't contain my excitement.......

[seabreeze86]

The new NAVGEM looks much better pushing the low just abit further north allowing colder 850s to get into the uk

http://modeles.meteo...0-114.png?17-11

Havent seen any verification stats for this model as yet so dont no how good it is.

Edit, just seen Steve Murr's post that he wont be posting after the 12z i hope he will reconsider as his posts are by far the best to read on this forum and his passion for the weather is plain to see. Keep the post coming Steve.

Edited February 17, 2013 by seabreeze86

[Weathizard]

Spoke to my weather fanatic friend in Bilbao last night and the spaniard snow lovers all love the cut off UK high as it delivers for them.

There is still a chance for a shift north, I do believe there will be a shift north whether its my head or my heart telling me this I'm not so sure! Anyway if it doesn't at least its dry. And the 6z does show a nice significant cold pool to tap into for the whole country if we get a few little tweaks in our favour, unlikely but not impossible.