winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[chris55]

Thats fair enough, What Is the dream scenario here? Are you thinking there is a remote possibility of getting that high into Greenland ?

Our Scandi high into Greenland is probably not on the cards, however with a window of opportunity between our high dying and the Atlantic coming in there is a slim possibility of a potential west based NAO edging that bit further east. With heights to the far north west moving east.

GEM 00z highlights what I'm talking about. All just chasing the unsupported cold scenario though (at this juncture)

Lets be honest though Steve , are you really resorting to chasing snow t400 hrs away ? Yes you will see a bit of light snow this week into the weekend , but not amounting to anything significant , if someone had offered me this cold spell in advance as a choice , I think I would of left it in the continent , dull , very cold , mainly dry days don't cut it for me , and although it can snow well into march , we're doing the thing we have done all winter , which is chase potential set ups and watch them disapear a few days later.

Good 10 days of snowy weather in jan . So all in all not a bad winter with some additional wet snow either side of the spell in jan .

But I for one certainly haven't got the energy to go chasing something in la la land. This easterly is nothing to write to home about, the main action as always is in Europe .

Don't go biting my head off guys like the other day , this isn't a doom and gloom post guys, I'm more than satisfied with the snow Iv had , just a bit tired of chasing tales and looking at things 3 wks away which in all honesty won't happen.

In the mean time a cold 5 days or so to come , with a biting wind , but not much other than a cm or 2 of snow anybody . If you people get excited about that , then fair enough , but I don't.

Regards

Shaun

Don't we do that every winter LOL. This is the inexorable truth when viewing model data at anything past 96 hours!!! But for the 1 in 10 chance that it may actually be right is the thing that keeps us coming back for more!!

Edited February 19, 2013 by chris55

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the latest report of the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Tuesday February 19th 2013.

All models maintain the theme of High pressure dominated conditions lasting for the foreseeable future. After a dry virtual springlike day for many today another frost is likely under a ridge of High pressure over the UK. A trough of Low pressure moves West across the UK tonight and tomorrow introducing much more cloud and more importantly much colder conditions. The majority will then see a cloudy spell of weather with just brief bright conditions moving into Southern UK behind the front tomorrow afternoon. Thereafter the Easterly wind will develop with a cutting edge to it under predominently cloudy skies. Later in the week there is increasing risk of some light snow flurries affecting Eastern and Southern areas which will last through the weekend as High pressure to the North maintains the cold feed of NE wind over the South.

GFS then shows High pressure over Scotland through the early days of next week with a tendency to drift it SE later in the week. The weather will remain dry for all next week with variable and often large amounts of cloud with just brief glimpses of sunshine by day and patchy frosts by night. The cold daytime temperatures should relax slowly towards nearer to normal values later in the week. Later in the run the High slips far enough away to the SE to allow some Atlantic frons into Western and NW Britain with occasional rain which may affect the SW too later as winds back SE.

The GFS Ensembles show a cold snap through the rest of the week and weekend with a rise in uppers thereafter. The graph shows a huge spread in members in the second half of the run with the operational a marked outlier towards the end of the run. there are a few very cold runs in the pack too.

The Jet Stream shows the Southern arm of the flow the stronger element over the forthcoming spell. With a weaker arm currently ridged over the UK to the North becomes strengthened later by a feed off the Southern arm moving north over the Eastern Atlantic which then develops an Anticyclonic motion around the UK in a week or so time.

UKMO tonight shows a slow moving High pressure area over Scotland with a fine spell continuing for all in a light anticyclonic wind flow. There will be a lot of cloud trapped under the High but some bright or sunnys breas too giving some sunshine but equally those same breaks will mean a night frost and fog patches too in places. After the cold and bitter ENE flow of the late week and weekend conditions early next week should see things becoming less cold generally, especially by day.

ECM shows High pressure too over Scotland with the cold NE flow of the previous days continuing into Monday too though largely dry everywhere. Thereafter High pressure maintains it's grip though not to the extent of this morning's run. High pressure locates to the NE of the UK, more or less over the North Sea and NW Europe with the lowest pressure down to the SW where it just holds far enough off to make any ingress of fronts limited. In any event the High slips SE with the inevitable Atlantic likely to return with milder and unsettled weather soon after term.

In Summary the High pressure based output continues with just variations on a theme. The cold surge of air looks like lasting into next week before rather milder conditions slowly develop, though with High pressure over the UK or close by then night time frosts will still be commonplace should skies stay clear. ECM tonight for the first time shows a sinking High with a return of the Atlantic possible in the days that follow.

[swfc]

This current forecast cold snap has to be one of the most hyped up ones ive seen on here to be fair.It is what it is and its the mo forum but it seems folk seem to be reaching for things what just are not there in the mo!Retrogression has reared its head recently but does it look likely imo no.Goods luck to anyone anyway who picks up any light snow over the weekend

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

This current forecast cold snap has to be one of the most hyped up ones ive seen on here to be fair.It is what it is and its the mo forum but it seems folk seem to be reaching for things what just are not there in the mo!Retrogression has reared its head recently but does it look likely imo no.Goods luck to anyone anyway who picks up any light snow over the weekend

I agree entirely

[Tim Bland]

This current forecast cold snap has to be one of the most hyped up ones ive seen on here to be fair.It is what it is and its the mo forum but it seems folk seem to be reaching for things what just are not there in the mo!Retrogression has reared its head recently but does it look likely imo no.Goods luck to anyone anyway who picks up any light snow over the weekend

Don't loose faith, Rogers expecting up to 30cm remember then we have the record cold to look forward to

In all seriousness things can still change in our favour for one last cold snap but its looking pretty boring at the moment.

[nick sussex]

Lets be honest though Steve , are you really resorting to chasing snow t400 hrs away ? Yes you will see a bit of light snow this week into the weekend , but not amounting to anything significant , if someone had offered me this cold spell in advance as a choice , I think I would of left it in the continent , dull , very cold , mainly dry days don't cut it for me , and although it can snow well into march , we're doing the thing we have done all winter , which is chase potential set ups and watch them disapear a few days later.

Good 10 days of snowy weather in jan . So all in all not a bad winter with some additional wet snow either side of the spell in jan .

But I for one certainly haven't got the energy to go chasing something in la la land. This easterly is nothing to write to home about, the main action as always is in Europe .

Don't go biting my head off guys like the other day , this isn't a doom and gloom post guys, I'm more than satisfied with the snow Iv had , just a bit tired of chasing tales and looking at things 3 wks away which in all honesty won't happen.

In the mean time a cold 5 days or so to come , with a biting wind , but not much other than a cm or 2 of snow for anybody . If people get excited about that , then fair enough , but I don't.

Regards

Shaun

Lol! I remember many winters in the UK where 2cms of snow would be welcomed with open arms! But I'm old enough to have suffered many dire UK winters so that probably explains it.

I think whats most unusual about this winter so far is the complete reluctance for any sort of pressure rise over Greenland, the lack of any higher latitude blocking to show its hand even with the SSW, in essence the UK has done well to get the snow its seen given that, I know some people have missed out and it must be very frustrating especially now that the winter is drawing to a close.

[winterof79]

GFS ensembles have good agreement to February 28th after that there is a lot of scatter

Temperatures should recover to around average for a time next week after a cool weekend

I appreciate your input Gavin,but why do you crave warmth throughout winter?Surely having seasons is what our little island is all about.

I love warm/hot summers but do not see many posters craving cold in this thread,nor posting a cooling trend as their preference during that period. Just an observation.

I do not see anything too severe on the horizon for the cold lovers but do not want spring this early thankyou.Indeed lets have colder than average until April and we may stand a chance of a reasonable summer for once.

[Methuselah]

Tbh, I can't recall any of the models ever hinting towards anything record-breaking: a centimetre-or-so of snow this weekend followed by a gradually weakening easterly, has always been the form horse, I think...

[swfc]

Don't loose faith, Rogers expecting up to 30cm remember then we have the record cold to look forward to

In all seriousness things can still change in our favour for one last cold snap but its looking pretty boring at the moment.

I agree things can change but this spell of weather has never looked anything special to be fair.Cant complain given the snow we have had in our area but cold frosty weather hmm not really.30cm eh!i think theres more chance of 12 inch in june,if you pardon the pun

[snowking]

This current forecast cold snap has to be one of the most hyped up ones ive seen on here to be fair.It is what it is and its the mo forum but it seems folk seem to be reaching for things what just are not there in the mo!Retrogression has reared its head recently but does it look likely imo no.Goods luck to anyone anyway who picks up any light snow over the weekend

I think thats probably a bit of an unfair assessment to be honest

The majority of posts on here over the past few days have held a consistent theme - dry and cold with some snow flurries further SE.

Occasionally charts have been posted which would suggest something a little snowier - and that to me is completely fine. This thread is very much say what you see, and if theres cold hard data to support a scenario, this being a model output thread I feel its probably justified to post it.

I'm beginning to get the impression from a few members that there is disappointment creeping in that this isn't going to provide inches and inches of snow, and that is disappointing, but the nature of UK winters should be well known by people that have been on the forum for some years now, unfortunately its just something we all have to get over and move on with. Then again, at the same time I have not seen such a scenario posted here with any sort of supporting evidence in the last few days, and that should be a dead giveaway - posts without data to back up an extreme point of view we should hopefully know by now can be disregarded (much like a rogue ensemble run!)

I am just as disappointed as everyone that we are not about to undergo a severe snowy spell, but thats the weather!

If anyone has got themselves suckered into thinking this was about to be such a spell then I am unsure as to where they may have gotten this idea from. Equally, if this has happened, hopefully theres a few lessons to take forward into next winter

Kind Regards

SK

Edited February 19, 2013 by snowking

[Snowman.]

I think retrogression of the high to allow a northerly is looking very long odds. Theres just no clear signal for this and those low heights in Greenland just won't relent.

Although you've still got some energy heading se the highs got nowhere to go and eventually it has to start sinking, still some time to play with but I think we have to be realistic and say its a longshot.

Sure no clear signs...

You need think outside a bit if the Models overplay the Atlantic we get the high over us. If they have overplayed then GH is more likely.

There is no true signal for the Atlantic to come back so I reckon we could say good bye to that for a while. There is the possibility that we get Greenland heights but we are unaffected is believe this is the most likely with a small attack from the SW. It's almost like its trying to give us a easterly and Northerly at the same time what wins well we should have a clearer view this weekend.

Edited February 19, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[cooling climate]

I certainly would not right off the first couple of weeks of March although

I very much doubt we will see a Greenland high.

If and it is a big if we do get anything from the longer range output I would

imagine it would continue with the trend since mid January and that is high

pressure building to our north.Then similar to what the control run shows high

pressure linking up to the Arctic heights coming south while bitterly cold air

drops down into northern Europe. Add in a big dollop of luck and the most frigid

air of the winter spreads west across northwestern Europe and the UK with copius

amounts of snow and ice days.

Stranger things have happened in the past so you never know.Something to watch

anyway once this cold spell and snow for some has come to pass.

Edited February 19, 2013 by cooling climate

[winterof79]

Faux dry?

I really do not like that description.It is not false, it is cold.....The forecasted high is not set to bring low overnight minima http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16217.png

but if it did it would be cold .If i have to scrape the car in the mornings it is because it has been cold overnight not falsely cold or with a false scraper.

And i know you poste "Faux dry" whatever that means

Edited February 19, 2013 by winterof79

[Timmytour]

Lets be honest though Steve , are you really resorting to chasing snow t400 hrs away ?

I don't think he is....he's simply making a light quip.

Don't let overwhelming despondency make you blind to the abilities of other to enjoy a bit of banter

[UV-RAY]

I really do not like that description.It is not false, it is cold.....The forecasted high is not set to bring low overnight minima http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16217.png

but if it did it would be cold .If i have to scrape the car in the mornings it is because it has been cold overnight not falsely cold or with a false scraper.

And i know you poste "Faux dry" whatever that means

It was meant to be a tongue in cheek post, directed at the faux cold brigade. Dry is dry, cold is cold.

[Paul]

If you're looking for an indicator of where we may end up into March, the CFS currently has it's colours firmly nailed to the mast with northern blocking extensive..

And that equates to a slightly colder than average month in terms of forecast temperature anomalies.

[snowking]

Sure no clear signs...

You need think outside a bit if the Models overplay the Atlantic we get the high over us. If they have overplayed then GH is more likely.

There is no true signal for the Atlantic to come back so I reckon we could say good bye to that for a while. There is the possibility that we get Greenland heights but we are unaffected is believe this is the most likely with a small attack from the SW. It's almost like its trying to give us a easterly and Northerly at the same time what wins well we should have a clearer view this weekend.

Unfortunately Snowman, despite the retrogression of the mean HEIGHT signal (remembering to discern between heights and pressure - bearing in mind the standard heights across the atlantic are rather low) the core of these heights end up closer to Canada - a west based -NAO, and this places little forcing on the jet stream our side of the Atlantic - hence the strongest signal from a UK point of view on the chart you provide is the Atlantic cyclogenesis moving towards the UK from the SW

Of course as mentioned previously, should the atlantic jet have been overestimated, and the Scandi trough ends up winning that race instead, then we could be looking at something a little more promising. Unfortunately at absolute face value, the above height anomaly doesn't favour anything much below average for the UK

SK

Edited February 19, 2013 by snowking

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

could see a little snow next week if the gfs has got it right

[Summer Sun]

If you're looking for an indicator of where we may end up into March, the CFS currently has it's colours firmly nailed to the mast with northern blocking extensive..

And that equates to a slightly colder than average month in terms of forecast temperature anomalies.

Whats the precipitation indications for March Paul?

[UV-RAY]

If you're looking for an indicator of where we may end up into March, the CFS currently has it's colours firmly nailed to the mast with northern blocking extensive..

And that equates to a slightly colder than average month in terms of forecast temperature anomalies.

The CFS has been quite good since February last year, it picked out last Summers washout as well as being pretty good at picking the right signals for this winter back in early Autumn.

[chionomaniac]

If you're looking for an indicator of where we may end up into March, the CFS currently has it's colours firmly nailed to the mast with northern blocking extensive..

And that equates to a slightly colder than average month in terms of forecast temperature anomalies.

That's a really strong signal, Paul, and one that I am fairly surprised at. I was thinking along the lines of mid latitude blocking would be the form horse for the start of this spring, with the FI output already showing this as a possibility.

[Paul]

Whats the precipitation indications for March Paul?

Below average for the northern half of the UK (in the main), average or a little above average further south. On another subject, the precip anomaly for the remainder of Feb is entertainingly dry!

[Cheshire Freeze]

The CFS has been quite good since February last year, it picked out last Summers washout as well as being pretty good at picking the right signals for this winter back in early Autumn.

Yes I don't know why the CFS is so maligned. Maybe confusing for some people as there are a few versions of the model; some are not bias corrected either I believe. The chart Paul posted is very similar to what the anomalies have been showing on Meteociel.

[SMU]

Lets be honest though Steve , are you really resorting to chasing snow t400 hrs away ? Yes you will see a bit of light snow this week into the weekend , but not amounting to anything significant , if someone had offered me this cold spell in advance as a choice , I think I would of left it in the continent , dull , very cold , mainly dry days don't cut it for me , and although it can snow well into march , we're doing the thing we have done all winter , which is chase potential set ups and watch them disapear a few days later.

Good 10 days of snowy weather in jan . So all in all not a bad winter with some additional wet snow either side of the spell in jan .

But I for one certainly haven't got the energy to go chasing something in la la land. This easterly is nothing to write to home about, the main action as always is in Europe .

Don't go biting my head off guys like the other day , this isn't a doom and gloom post guys, I'm more than satisfied with the snow Iv had , just a bit tired of chasing tales and looking at things 3 wks away which in all honesty won't happen.

In the mean time a cold 5 days or so to come , with a biting wind , but not much other than a cm or 2 of snow for anybody . If people get excited about that , then fair enough , but I don't.

Regards

Shaun

Im not resorting to anything. other than commenting on a chart.

[Paul]

That's a really strong signal, Paul, and one that I am fairly surprised at. I was thinking along the lines of mid latitude blocking would be the form horse for the start of this spring, with the FI output already showing this as a possibility.

It's become stronger in the last week - was a bit less clear prior to that. The CFS has been pretty good in recent times but it can occasionally go off on a tangent only to retreat back so I'd not rule out that as a possibility at this stage.