winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[Coast]

More potential for next week to watch evolve over the next few runs and will some parts of the UK see some wintry stuff for a few days?

Please remember to keep you posts topical, polite and with enough detail so that people of all abilities can see what your analysis means and why.

[cooling climate]

For the sake of a few hundred miles further north this could be a really worthwhile

event, the ECM now really on board with colder uppers of -12c unfortunately they are

now headed down through the low countries and southwestward across northern

France.

The models over the last couple of days really do show the futility of talking about

precipitation and snow amounts at five, six days out.

[Harsh Climate]

It was always going to be further south though, from past experience this happens in these forcasted easterlies at least 9 times out of 10.

Nothing to threat about though, even if the easterly was 200 miles further north, precipitation amounts would be trivial as the uppers over the continent just aren't cold enough for any great north sea convection.

The plus is, areas further north may now enjoy a little sunshine/partly cloudy skies from time to time next week instead of grey laden dull skies with no real prospect of accumulations. So not all bad

[Jason M]

06 running out.

Been a strange few days really. The charts look great at face value but there is always something that stops us getting over the final hurdle. It's a conspiracy, I tell ya :-)

Jason

[london-snow]

Morning all.

The pattern beyond mid next week looks far from nailed on as shown by the ecm postage stamps no firm agreement sums things up perfectly in regards to the positioning of the high.

Looking forward to yet another day of mod & hoping that a trend for the high to be placed a tad further north starts to emerge.

It really is knife edge drama..

[bluearmy]

Can I just chuck in that the progged uppers later this week are very low and we only require instability to deliver widespread snowfall. Could be a big ask though.

[snowking]

Still the chance of those lower heights moving further north, but some good continuity in its position between the 12z and 0z runs. Still we have seen changes before at the 120 range.

As has been pointed out, one of the main reasons is that the Atlantic undercut had been overdone somewhat. We now have less energy being fused with the euro low. This could still change, but ensemble means are also holding the lower Atlantic heights back further west.

Looking at the extended range, without that undercut we are hoping for a northward movement if you want to see some snow, because the high sinking SE is then the favoured solution in the longer range as we lose the low European heights, at which point we should be looking for spring.

Plenty of time for shift, but the overall theme has moved back towards dry and cold (vs modelling potential at 0z yesterday) - suits me just fine but I would imagine such an outcome might not be as favourable for others on here

SK

[Harsh Climate]

I learned my lesson in 2005. A huge easterly with -15 uppers were forecasted across the whole of england with heavy snow around 4 days out only for it to be downgraded in the final few days before hand.

We ended up with this:

I distinctly remember Milan getting 50cm snow, southern france over 30cm and heavy snow in parts of spain. Fair to say I was heartbroken lol, but taught me one huge lesson about getting your hopes up on futile model fodder lol.

[Gustywind]

It was always going to be further south though, from past experience this happens in these forcasted easterlies at least 9 times out of 10.

Nothing to threat about though, even if the easterly was 200 miles further north, precipitation amounts would be trivial as the uppers over the continent just aren't cold enough for any great north sea convection.

The plus is, areas further north may now enjoy a little sunshine/partly cloudy skies from time to time next week instead of grey laden dull skies with no real prospect of accumulations. So not all bad

Sorry harsh climate but that's as misleading as my own comment about a French snowfest earlier! We'd get plenty of precipitation if the whole thing was 200 miles further north. Uppers are far better than feb 05 and there was plenty of shower activity that week, including inland areas, precipitation was enhanced by strengthening sunshine also. Only trouble was it was too marginal on that occasion so we got either quickly melting snow or sleet.

[shaky]

No comments on the 06z??i guess theres no change then?

[Harsh Climate]

Further south again

[shaky]

Further south again

That looks hideous!!!we might aswell have spring like weather instead!

[Djdazzle]

Further south again

Actually it's pretty much the same as the 00z.

[Jason M]

This really is painful to watch. Each run is further south...

The margins run to run are tiny. Maybe 20 or less miles per run but cumulatively it starts to really add up. Based on the 06 by day five we are pretty much in UK High territory. It's really mid lat blocking now rather than HLB. More runs needed but the trend is clear and relentless IMHO. This run isn't exactly an outlier either by the standards of the 00z suite.

Jason

Edit by 132 a very significant cold pool is in evidence to our east. Maybe days 7-8 will be where the action is.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Jason M

[frosty ground]

I learned my lesson in 2005. A huge easterly with -15 uppers were forecasted across the whole of england with heavy snow around 4 days out only for it to be downgraded in the final few days before hand.

We ended up with this:

I distinctly remember Milan getting 50cm snow, southern france over 30cm and heavy snow in parts of spain. Fair to say I was heartbroken lol, but taught me one huge lesson about getting your hopes up on futile model fodder lol.

here is the issue the 2005 eassterly was never down to deliver those cold uppers.

[MKN]

Further south again

Where's the easterly gone ?

[Harsh Climate]

That looks hideous!!!we might aswell have spring like weather instead!

Ye certainly does!

If this was late november it would be a super chart as we would just be starting winter and happy to watch it slowly play out while get colder. At this time of year we just don't have that time to play with, winter is coming to a close and we could do with something quick before the sun really starts gaining strength.

There is still chance of retrogression of our high northwestwards but probably below 30% at this stage.

[IDO]

Although things can change, as people keep saying, but the trend is clear, small shifts south per GFS run. The 850s are downgrading per run:

0z: 06z:

It is quite possible that the easterly will be too far south to even register in the UK at this rate. However this is no surprise, it has been this year's theme.

[Methuselah]

This really is painful to watch. Each run is further south...

The margins run to run are tiny. Maybe 20 or less miles per run but cumulatively it starts to really add up. Based on the 06 by day five we are pretty much in UK High territory. It's really mid lat blocking now rather than HLB. More runs needed but the trend is clear and relentless IMHO. This run isn't exactly an outlier either by the standards of the 00z suite.

Jason

Perhaps that's what comes from taking hype too seriously? Better to take note of what the Met are saying, and why they are saying it, perhaps?

Anywho, so long as it stays cold, there's always potential...

[KTtom]

Another sizable downgrade in terms of snow potential and now even the cold. By Friday we only just have -5 850's over the east coast.....quickly becoming a non event......awaiting the first 'it'll feel positively springlike' post!

[Harsh Climate]

here is the issue the 2005 eassterly was never down to deliver those cold uppers.

Not sure what your trying to imply there mate.

But I watched that entire set-up unfold and it still remains fresh in my memory, yes we certainly was down for those sub -15 uppers. (basically what affected france/north italy/parts of spain was shown a few hundered miles north, affecting us in the charts 48/72hours before the actual charts I posted.)

Edited February 17, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[snowmadchrisuk]

Starting to look like a non event Snow wise on the GFS , The ECM however still looks full of potential IMO.

[Timmytour]

06z has more PV dropping down.. short term reduction in potential for longer term gain?

[Isolated Frost]

Paris, Munich, Milan- huge cold spell coming for them ! Heavy snow on top of the weak jet and under the infamous UK high , which works so much for W Europe. It looks very cold for all of Britain atm, with snow/snow shrs likely across S/SEern parts at times, not the worst outlook for cold lovers...

[Liam J]

Further south again

Yes, further minor adjustments southwards, I wonder just how far south this will end up! I remember yesterday many were kicking up a fuss about the Met/BBC forecasts playing down the risk of snow well it looks like the Met Office were calling this pretty much bang on. They do have far more tools than then the publicly available model outputs we have access to.

Dry, cool, frosty with variable amounts of cloud which will have an impact on night time minima, good weather for drying out the waterlogged areas of the UK.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Liam J