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Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

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"more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK"

Just gets worse and worse.

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Why don’t they just say “sometime within the next ten years there may be an easterly”! Honestly there is no point in these forecasts as they change with the wind. I’m afraid to say it but I think this winter is petering out to a whimper. Note to all in future is to ignore background signals until there is a greater understanding of it which could take years. No more than 7 days for me from now on. 

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6 minutes ago, DOdo said:

Why mention this Easterly when it clearly is ☹️ not going to happen. Waste of print

Because they have performed awfully this winter and they have to drop the cold signal slowly as they are doing now.

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They haven’t set themselves in glory that’s for sure. Very poor from them since start Dec. So much for these super computers. Easy to forecast Atlantic driven weather but anything outside this remit their forecasts go to pot. 

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I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet.  Plenty of winter left and the ECM did showing an easterly in mid FI.  Who's to say the pendulum can't swing back but have to agree that these 15-30 forecasts have been exceptionally poor this winter.

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People need stop getting hung up on what these outlooks contain. They can only give commentary on what all the various data systems they have to hand are showing at a given time. If they change, so will the commentary and the probability of a particular weather pattern..

Take them for what they are at a particular point in time..

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Isn't that 'forecast' just a summery of what we could expect in any February...?? Lets be honest, im sure many will stick up for them and we all recognise its a difficult job, however, these long range forecasts have been awful!

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Very low confidence even at the start of the forecasting period....

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56 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

"more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK"

Just gets worse and worse.

 

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. 

Or just the same as we have now

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18 hours ago, Catacol said:

 few  dozen such spells that really sank into my memory. Feb 81 when a child in Glasgow I will never forget. 85, 87, 91, 96, 10.....and some not bad stuff in 09, 12 and 13. 96 to 09 was 12 years of utter cold weather despair. l

Although I can't recall how the MetO performed back then  I remember 79 well and the run of cold winters that followed in the early 80's.  I was 20 in 1979 so in the flush of youth going out to disco's (everyone cringe) in flimsy summer clothes in freezing weather late at night when dad said I should be in bed!  I'd even throw wellies in the back of the mini and call to check on the horses at 2am on my way home. Sometimes I expected to see a polar bear or two across the fields as it really was so cold and snow, my feet and hands got so cold.  We had real fun in those snowy winters bombarding my ex's car with snowballs while out on a local pub crawl as the weather was not suitable for driving and I even remember someone coming to the pub on his ski's. What happened to change these winters.  the next winters in my memory are 09/10 and December 2010.   It's the same with thunderstorms, I call recall  some real thunder days - they are a rare event around here in recent summers.  It does seem to me also the MetO longer range forecasts have not been useful at all 

Edited by Snowycat
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16 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Although I can't recall how the MetO performed back then  I remember 79 well and the run of cold winters that followed in the early 80's.  I was 20 in 1979 so in the flush of youth going out to disco's (everyone cringe) in flimsy summer clothes in freezing weather late at night when dad said I should be in bed!  I'd even throw wellies in the back of the mini and call to check on the horses at 2am on my way home. Sometimes I expected to see a polar bear or two across the fields as it really was so cold and snow, my feet and hands got so cold.  We had real fun in those snowy winters bombarding my ex's car with snowballs while out on a local pub crawl as the weather was not suitable for driving and I even remember someone coming to the pub on his ski's. What happened to change these winters.  the next winters in my memory are 09/10 and December 2010.   It's the same with thunderstorms, I call recall  some real thunder days - they are a rare event around here in recent summers.  It does seem to me also the MetO longer range forecasts have not been useful at all 

Yes - snow event memories tend to stick! 

February tomorrow, next week unremarkable but we have a window of opportunity around mid month to see a block develop, and just to tantalise us a bit ECM produces an op (all be it an outlier) that paints this scenario. 

And to tantalise me further it will snow in Somerset this evening and I’m stuck in Bucks until Saturday. Aaaaarghhhhhh!!!

Anyway grounds for a bit of optimism today, and the signals we have been banging on in about all season will peak in the next week or so.....so that mid month opportunity is certainly something to watch.

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I think they just try and cover as many angles as they can tbh.

These forecasts seem to be more wrong than right. Especially not really changing the longer one after the big downgrade of the shorter one.

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

They really ought to have replaced that with this:

giphy.gif

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5 hours ago, karyo said:

Because they have performed awfully this winter and they have to drop the cold signal slowly as they are doing now.

Usual wishy-washy nonsense from them 

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I really don't know why people pay so much attention to these met office updates . IMO they are no more accurate than they were 20 years ago. They cover just about every possible outcome in every update. I find the guys on here more accurate to be honest. Just my opinion

 

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UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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I normally try and remain upbeat but I can’t help thinking this today .

6DE82375-3504-49D4-88BD-894382BED456.jpeg

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Even though there was a downgrade during the week that LRF is still not bad at all. It is possible they have downgraded this week as the signals they have been expecting are not yet showing so rather than be left with egg on their face they have tempered the wording a little. Still an interesting month ahead and wouldn't rule out a repeat of last year yet.

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Updated again

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2019 to Saturday 2 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

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4 hours ago, Rascals Revenge said:

Updated again

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2019 to Saturday 2 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

Doh!

To be honest, the outlook hasn't really changed, it's just worded differently.

 

Edited by Don

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3 hours ago, Don said:

Doh!

To be honest, the outlook hasn't really changed, it's just worded differently.

 

It is a backtrack somewhat to increased chances for colder conditions - there must still be a strong signal for potential colder weather towards month end, with easterlies.. I would certainly not cast the chance of this occurring. 

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3 hours ago, Don said:

Doh!

To be honest, the outlook hasn't really changed, it's just worded differently.

 

It is a backtrack somewhat to increased chances for colder conditions - there must still be a strong signal for potential colder weather towards month end, with easterlies.. I would certainly not cast the chance of this occurring. 

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41 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

It is a backtrack somewhat to increased chances for colder conditions - there must still be a strong signal for potential colder weather towards month end, with easterlies.. I would certainly not cast the chance of this occurring. 

That would be great.  Have had 10cm of snow overnight and today, so would be nice to get something from the east, too!

Edited by Don
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UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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