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Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

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19 minutes ago, cobbett said:

or mild

Your taking it out of context, but you know that.:cold:

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UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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So not much change , seems first half of Feb will be winter best chance

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Pretty good. The mid term update isn’t bad either - Plenty of wintry interest but some milder blips.

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That looks to me like they think they know what coming but they have no idea how it actually arrives or when it arrives .....

 

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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Rather underwhelming weather for week ahead. ''Milder weather from friday..''

what did is say for tues

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That looks to me like they think they know what coming but they have no idea how it actually arrives or when it arrives .....

 

needs to get a move on now, becuase the clock it ticking /!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

what did is say for tues

Says the front is one to watch, but didn't mention much in the way of snow apart from mainly high ground in wales and over the continent.

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Good so bitter north easterlies and heavy snow showers arriving for Feb, by the sound of thar update, just get next week over then its BOOM  looking forward to sledging in the downs in just over a weeks time. WINTER 2018/2019 took your time ⛸️⛸️⛸️❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄⛄⛄😂😂😂😂😂

 

Edited by SLEETY
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13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Good so bitter north easterlies and heavy snow showers arriving for Feb, by the sound of thar update, just get next week over then its BOOM  looking forward to sledging in the downs in just over a weeks time. WINTER 2018/2019 took your time ⛸️⛸️⛸️❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄⛄⛄😂😂😂😂😂

 

The METO update sounds like they have covered all bases and don’t want to commit to anything. 

Could be mild, could be dry, could see snow, probably frosty. Very poor IMO. 

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They should really be 100% certain at more than 2 weeks out...

Edited by MattStoke

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25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That looks to me like they think they know what coming but they have no idea how it actually arrives or when it arrives .....

 

If indeed it even arrives at all, hence the line ‘however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty.’

Been the story of this winter, but still plenty of time for it to change.

 

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Much as the models have delayed any real chance of cold, so the Met Office outlook continues to say a higher chance of cold, but always in the later period. Plenty of caveats in there too. We shall see. 

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Into February it is...so everybody getting excited about getting cold in the heart of winter was for nothing, next stop cold into the second half of February.:oldlaugh:

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6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Into February it is...so everybody getting excited about getting cold in the heart of winter was for nothing, next stop cold into the second half of February.:oldlaugh:

The met office doesn't seem to have a scooby, we will have to rely on the ahem experts in the Mod thread instead🤐

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This cold potential is continually being put back.  Late December, early January, mid January, late January and now February!  That’s why I’m giving up on this winter.  Something is not playing ball.

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I have a feeling that they will start to drop references to very cold in the extended soon.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I have a feeling that they will start to drop references to very cold in the extended soon.

Yes, unless the GLOSEA is showing a scandi high around 10th feb or something - beginning to think now thats our only chance - all in on a scandi hight, the most risky and would now need to re-orientate a few times while in situ because col pool is decaying to the East - long shot but probably worth the risk now.

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22 hours ago, MattStoke said:

They should really be 100% certain at more than 2 weeks out...

I don't think so - just shows - even though models that they have and we can't see plus the models we can see show this or that beyond 4/5 days - it's a total "guessing game" that much far ahead - so we're still at 7 - 10 days flailing around in the dark - amateurs and pros alike - the science of meteorology has to take another leap forward - especially in winter - before being able to really get a handle on the weather so far out - these super computers even at 100 million pounds are still struggling to crunch the numbers and churn out spot on forecasts

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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