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Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

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6 minutes ago, It Might Snow said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 7 Feb 2018:

Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, showers and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

Hi Gavin, I think this is the most up to date forecast from the Met Office.

 

 

Thank you. Overall similar to the last update but with a marginal improvement on the temperatures. Surprised they don't mention hill snow considering the average to little below average temperatures.

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UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Jan 2018 to Thursday 8 Feb 2018:

Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with spells of rain and strong winds for most at times. While confidence is low at this stage, it looks mostly likely that northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited by Summer Sun

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Jan 2018 to Thursday 8 Feb 2018:

Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with spells of rain and strong winds for most at times. While confidence is low at this stage, it looks mostly likely that northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Pure flat zonal that says to me. No sign of any favourable blocking there at all, not a sniff.

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11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Pure flat zonal that says to me. No sign of any favourable blocking there at all, not a sniff.

Agreed.

Garbage.

ANOTHER winter with no Greeny high or scandy high.

Atlantic way to strong 'these days'.

Edited by northwestsnow

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

Garbage.

ANOTHER winter with no Greeny high or scandy high.

Atlantic way to strong 'these days'.

Well it only goes up to the 8th February. If a SSW does occur by the end of the month, it can take a couple of weeks to impact the Trop.

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Just now, mountain shadow said:

Well it only goes up to the 8th February. If a SSW does occur by the end of the month, it can take a couple of weeks to impact the Trop.

Yes i know...

Id give it about 1% chance.

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Who wants cold from mid February onwards? With the strength of the sun then, it’ll just be a slush fest!

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1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

Who wants cold from mid February onwards? With the strength of the sun then, it’ll just be a slush fest!

Really? In late March 2013 I received over 2 foot of snow.

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You’re clearly not in the south then. Snow in late Feb and March melts rapidly. The cold March of 2013 was useless down here for that very reason.

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Apart from the fact they have removed snow in their extended outlook

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UK Outlook for Friday 26 Jan 2018 to Friday 9 Feb 2018:

Through this period the generally unsettled weather will most likely continue, with spells of rain and strong winds at times. While confidence is low at this stage, it looks most likely that northwestern areas will see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog to the whole of the UK. Temperatures will be below average to start the period, but are expected to trend back towards normal towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Jan 2018 to Saturday 10 Feb 2018:

Through the end of January and into early February, the unsettled weather is likely to continue with strong winds, spells of rain and the risk of wintry showers. These conditions are likely to affect many areas at first, however with time this may become more focused across the northwest, although confidence is low at this stage. Therefore, southern and southeastern parts of the UK may well become more settled and perhaps colder, bringing an increased likelihood of more widespread frost and fog. This may spread to all areas for a time. Temperatures will be below average at first, but are expected to return closer to normal as we head into early February.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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This doesn't make sense to me! Unsettled at first but then settling down in south and southeast, perhaps colder too here indicating some continental influence yet temperatures will be below average at the beginning of the period?

Anyway, overall a slightly more positive update than yesterday.

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UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Jan 2018 to Sunday 11 Feb 2018:

Through the final part of January and into early February the UK's weather should be characterised by short-lived unsettled spells with rain and showers, that could be wintry, especially in the north and over high ground; and, periods of colder, brighter, and generally showery weather. The colder and brighter spells are likely to see overnight frost or fog with temperatures through this period generally ranging from near to or below normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 29 Jan 2018 to Monday 12 Feb 2018:

Through the final part of January and into early February the UK's weather should be characterised by short-lived unsettled spells with rain and showers interspersed with periods of colder, brighter, and generally showery weather. During the unsettled spells showers or rain may become wintry, especially in the north and over high ground. During the colder and brighter spells overnight frost or fog is likely. Temperatures through the period will generally range from near to or below normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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I do have to smile when I read some of the comments in this and the 6-15 day outlooks UK Met issue.

I have just spent some time reading the last 2 outputs on here and on the other link.

They seem sensible and plausible (with the limited data I have) and not inconsistent in how they are dealing with the upper air pattern and subsequent surface weather. Mind you, see the main model thread, the change in their upper air outputs over the 12 hour period between the runs is quite noticeable, hence my comments about the senior man. However I still feel the outputs on their 6-30 day outlooks are as I've already described them.

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Lets face it most of these models are just speculation..no one knows say further than 5 day ahead or 7 at best...alot can change this week so be prepared for some surprises and the MET office usually go over the top re temperatures to keep in with the global warming agenda

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 13 Feb 2018:

Through the final part of January and into early February there are likely to be some longer spells of cloud and rain, interspersed with periods of colder, brighter, and generally more showery weather. During the unsettled spells, the showers or rain may become wintry, especially in the north and over high ground. During the colder and brighter spells, overnight frost or fog is likely. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 31 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 14 Feb 2018:

Through the last of January and into early February there are likely to be some longer spells of cloud and rain, interspersed with periods of colder, brighter, and generally more showery weather. During the unsettled spells, the showers or rain may become wintry, especially in the north and over high ground. During the colder and brighter spells, overnight frost or fog is likely. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Feb 2018 to Thursday 15 Feb 2018:

There is low confidence in the UK's weather through the first half of February. However, it is likely to be characterised by a mixture of short-lived spells of unsettled weather interspersed by showery periods and longer periods of more settled and drier weather. The unsettled spells will bring cloud and rain to parts of the UK and the showery periods may give snow in the north, especially over high ground. During the settled spells, it is likely to be cold with overnight frost and fog. Temperatures during this period will fluctuate around the average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 2 Feb 2018 to Friday 16 Feb 2018:

Through the first half of February the UK's weather is likely to be characterised by a mixture of short-lived spells of unsettled weather interspersed by showery conditions and longer periods of more settled and drier weather. The unsettled spells will bring cloud and rain to parts of the UK and the showery periods may give some snow in the north, especially over high ground. During the settled spells, it is likely to be cold with overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around the average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Feb 2018 to Saturday 17 Feb 2018:

Early February is likely to bring a relatively settled period of weather with a good deal of dry weather, relatively light winds and frost and fog expected to form overnight. There is considerable uncertainty at this stage however, as head towards the middle of February we are most likely to see short spells of wet and windy weather move across the UK, interspersed with colder, brighter and drier interludes. Throughout this period temperatures are expected to average out at close to normal but it will be colder at times during the periods of more settled weather

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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