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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

At the moment?...they've been uncertain in these updates since late October! and largely not been hugely accurate.

Didn’t want to feel the wrath of the people who seem to think they called things right because they include every type of weather in the forecast. But now you’ve said it....

However they are only forecasters, weather is hard enough to predict 5 days away let alone 16-30 days, it’s a fruitless task realistically so I have sympathy for them having to put this together

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Didn’t want to feel the wrath of the people who seem to think they called things right because they include every type of weather in the forecast. But now you’ve said it....

Agreed! What happened to the weather turning colder around the New Year or before?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Jan 2019 to Saturday 19 Jan 2019:

Most areas will be dry on Thursday with some sunshine after an early frost. However, the far southeast will have rain showers and some rain will affect the northwest. On Friday cloud will extend to most parts from the northwest, accompanied by a rise in temperature. However, it will remain mostly dry, perhaps with heavier rain reaching the northwest later, where winds may also strengthen. Over the weekend and into the following week, the weather is set to become generally more changeable, with gales at times and bands of rain crossing from the west. Some snow is expected in the north, especially in brighter, showery, colder interludes between weather systems. The south and southeast can expect the best of any drier and brighter periods. Meanwhile, some frost is still likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Sunday 3 Feb 2019:

The period may start with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. However, as the period progresses there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather becoming established generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Still unclear when the cold will come. 25th Jan, 31st Jan or early February? 'As the period progresses' could fit under any of those dates.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

‘Later in jan’ replaced with ‘as the period progresses’ 

just a desire to change the words or a change in modelling that offers an earlier/later start to possible cold ???? 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

‘Later in jan’ replaced with ‘as the period progresses’ 

just a desire to change the words or a change in modelling that offers an earlier/later start to possible cold ???? 

Another change to wording from yesterday is that milder interludes are 'still possible' rather than 'are likely'. 

Edited by Bottled Snow
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
15 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

Another change to wording from yesterday is that milder interludes are 'still possible' rather than 'are likely'. 

And it looks as though that was the midnight update so perhaps they haven’t bothered to change anything for the noon issue ....

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

To me that suggests more uncertainty on the timing of the arrival of cold weather.

On the other hand, I like that it’s gone from saying that milder interludes are likely to just saying that they are possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And it looks as though that was the midnight update so perhaps they haven’t bothered to change anything for the noon issue ....

As I've said many times before Ignore the times just focus on the dates

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

BBC forecast..... Monday 21 January—Sunday 3 February

Probably, but not definitely, becoming colder

In our last outlook, we mentioned the possibility of it becoming colder during the middle or end of January, due to developments in the upper atmosphere over the North Pole. There has been a dramatic rise in the temperature of the Arctic stratosphere. Meteorologists call this kind of event a Sudden Stratospheric Warming or SSW. They happen several times per decade and are part of the natural variability of the global climate system.
The SSW event that has just occurred has disrupted the winds which make up the polar vortex, and it looks as though this disruption could continue for several weeks. This, combined with other global weather patterns, means that the UK has an increased threat of significantly colder weather developing as we head through the final third of January and into February.
Our longer-range forecast data certainly shows a trend towards colder weather across northern Europe, including the UK, at the end of this month and well into the start of February. There are also indications of an increased risk of snow for the UK.
However, there is still some uncertainty over the extent to which the cold weather will affect us. In fact, there is even a 25% chance that we could continue to be affected by Atlantic weather systems, with any cold air tending to be confined to other parts of Europe.

 

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

"Increased chance" - "Increased likelihood" how many times are these two words going to be repeated this winter? If you keep increasing the likelihood of something, over and over, doesn't the outcome become almost certain at some stage?  

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
10 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

"Increased chance" - "Increased likelihood" how many times are these two words going to be repeated this winter? If you keep increasing the likelihood of something, over and over, doesn't the outcome become almost certain at some stage?  

We can be absolutely confident that a severe spell will occur late January / Feb.

The only doubt is over the year :ninja:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jan 2019 to Sunday 20 Jan 2019:

Friday will be cloudy for many, with the best of the brightness in the north. It will probably turn more unsettled from the northwest into Saturday, with heavy rain and strong winds followed by showers, and some snow is likely over higher ground in the north. Gales will be possible in the north and west, and it will turn colder from the northwest. The weather is set to become generally more changeable, with gales at times and bands of rain crossing from the west. Some snow is expected in the north, especially in brighter, showery, colder interludes between weather systems. The south and southeast can expect the best of any drier and brighter periods. Meanwhile, some overnight frost is still likely in clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:

This period is likely to start with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too, especially in the southeast. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. However, as the period progresses there is an increased likelihood of a change to colder weather becoming established generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

We wait for the minute examination of each , and . !

Mind you it looks very much like they have produced for some time.

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
43 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

We wait for the minute examination of each , and . !

Mind you it looks very much like they have produced for some time.

 

Yes john it does seem to be like a 12inch version!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

These Meto updates are pretty much in line with what local Weatherman Ian Currie , suggested to me as the way forward, when I had a half hour phone conversation with him last night. They perhaps suggest some ridging North, from a mid-Atlantic High. (Mr.Currie doesn't foresee strong blocking over Greenland) but he does expect lows may start to dive S.E. across the U.K. and as High Pressure edges out further into the Atlantic and one of these lows is likely to usher in an Arctic sourced Northerly. 

The continuing mention of milder interludes amongst a colder regime, suggests to me that perhaps the N. and E. of the U.K. may well be more likely to remain in the colder air, whilst the S. and W., could possibly remain prone to milder incursions, at times. 

Pure conjecture on mine and Ian Currie's part. I do though greatly respect Mr.Currie's views, as he has been an official Met Office observer for many years and likewise has kept weather records, going back many years too.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

These Meto updates are pretty much in line with what local Weatherman Ian Currie , suggested to me as the way forward, when I had a half hour phone conversation with him last night. They perhaps suggest some ridging North, from a mid-Atlantic High. (Mr.Currie doesn't foresee strong blocking over Greenland) but he does expect lows may start to dive S.E. across the U.K. and as High Pressure edges out further into the Atlantic and one of these lows is likely to usher in an Arctic sourced Northerly. 

The continuing mention of milder interludes amongst a colder regime, suggests to me that perhaps the N. and E. of the U.K. may well be more likely to remain in the colder air, whilst the S. and W., could possibly remain prone to milder incursions, at times. 

Pure conjecture on mine and Ian Currie's part. I do though greatly respect Mr.Currie's views, as he has been an official Met Office observer for many years and likewise has kept weather records, going back many years too.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Slider low territory and trough disruption order of the day, with the cold remaining entrenched in the north and east, more episodic further south and west you go , ripe conditions for secondary low formation and shortwave activity, which provided heights remain to the west, should prevent any appreciable mild air, and hence a potentially very snowy period is what I am deducing the Met expects end of the month into Feb.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jan 2019 to Monday 21 Jan 2019:

It will probably turn more unsettled in the north during the weekend, with heavy rain and strong winds, followed by showers, these possibly turning wintry over higher ground. Elsewhere, mostly cloudy with perhaps some brighter spells to the lee of high ground. Windier for many, with the risk of coastal gales in the north. There is a trend towards more changeable conditions during next week, with spells of rain followed by colder and showery conditions, possibly turning to snow on northern hills. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will be towards the south. Windy for many, with gales possible in the north. Temperatures overall near to above average, although some colder interludes are possible, especially in the north. Overnight frosts are still likely in any clearer spells elsewhere.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 5 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are favoured at the start of this period, with spells of rain and strong winds, with some hill snow in the north at times. The driest and brightest conditions are likely to be in the south and southeast. Temperatures overall are likely to be near or falling below average. Any milder interludes probably becoming short lived, although the greatest chance of colder weather is likely to be in the north. As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

Pushed back till Feb now 

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