Meto Uk Further Outlook

[danm]

Just as people shouldn’t get too swayed by each and every model run, we shouldn’t get too excited/downbeat by each and every Met Office 30 day forecast. As others have pointed out, their last few have been wrong. 

The situation we have developing at the moment is incredibly complex and the effects of the SSW and other factors are yet to fully play out. That in itself results in uncertainty with timing and severity of any potential cold/snowy weather. 

As we are only at the beginning of this process we have to be patient and see how things play out over the next week or so. If by mid Jan we still aren’t seeing anything consistently favourable in the models then I’d be more inclined to be downhearted. Not yet though. Far from it. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by danm

[cobbett]

3 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Feb? It says “towards the end of Jan”, not February. 

You’re not seeing a trend here ? It’ll be Feb 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, cobbett said:

You’re not seeing a trend here ? It’ll be Feb 

Or not at all!

[Earthshine]

29 minutes ago, Don said:

Or not at all!

Not unheard of to have a SSW that doesn't lead to colder weather in the UK.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

Not unheard of to have a SSW that doesn't lead to colder weather in the UK.

I know, we could could easily be unlucky this time, too.

[Earthshine]

30 minutes ago, Don said:

I know, we could could easily be unlucky this time, too.

As long as summer 2019 is good I'm not going to worry too much about snow.  March 2018 was a bit excessive for snow here had over 7+ foot drifts.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

A cold north to northwesterly flow is likely to dominate early next week, with showers or perhaps more organised rain at times, mainly affecting northern and eastern areas, perhaps turning wintry over northern hills. Generally, bright, cold and breezy with the risk of gales in the east. More settled further south, with probably cloudier and milder conditions towards the west, slowly edging east across the UK. Towards the end of next week, it looks like staying predominately settled, with light winds and the likelihood of overnight frosts and fog. The most benign weather is likely to last for longest across the south, with very little rainfall expected. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times. A possible transition to changeable conditions by mid-January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

Ok, that's an improvement from yesterday's update. It doesn't sound cold enough for snow on low levels but it will do for now.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

No mention of NE’ which is why only snow for northern hills mentioned. Just hope the signal for any NE’ grows stronger in the next few runs.

Edited January 3, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Puddy Galore]

I'm reading the hunt for cold, strat thread and other weather related threads daily but as I'm not a professional meteorologist or one of the exceptionally knowleagable amateurs on here I don't post.  However, FWIW it seems to me the met are really hedging their bets with these forecasts, which to me screams .....they really do not know what weather type will prevail.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I'm still waiting the colder spell with snow they opted for to end December / start Jan.

They are basing the forecast on the models which are continually changing. About as much use as a chocolate fire guard atm - I don't see where the wet and windy spell is coming from.....this seems to go against the MJO forecast. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Try keep in mind that these forecasts are always based on probabilities, not certainties.
At the moment, the SSW (and other factors) may increase the chance of colder weather later this month, but it seems it won't be a straight forward propagation into the troposphere, so there's a chance we may just continue with a relatively mild theme too.

So saying things like "Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally" and "This cold spell is by no means certain though" could be entirely consistent with what the best information shows.

While it may not provide the certainty, false or otherwise, that people would like, it is how an honest and unbiased assessment of the medium to long range outlook would appear.

[Norrance]

Downgrade for me with change to wintry showers on hills from snow on hills and at times to lower levels in the North. The change to a pm influence appears stronger though.

[cheshire snow]

With a Cold North to North-westerly flow Would most of the PPN not be in Northern and western areas???

and not Eastern Areas as per update.

C.S

[karyo]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

With a Cold North to North-westerly flow Would most of the PPN not be in Northern and western areas???

and not Eastern Areas as per update.

C.S

I think they expect western areas to be too close to the high pressure (as the models currently show) but if the high sets up a bit further west the shower distribution will change.

[JoeShmoe]

This blog 

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/01/03/is-there-another-beast-from-the-east-on-the-way/

Seems to be pushing any 'possible' change to colder conditions until the end of Jan

[SLEETY]

might have to update that after this evenings runs ,for the better

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2019 to Friday 18 Jan 2019:

Many western and northwestern areas will be dry on Wednesday with long sunny spells after a cold and frosty start. A few showers towards the east, which could be wintry across eastern Scotland and northeast England. Windy in the east and central areas, with a risk of gales towards the coast, adding to the cold feel. Towards the end of next week, it looks like it will stay predominately settled, with light winds and the likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Thereafter, there could be a transition to more changeable conditions. The most settled weather is likely to last for longest across the south. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are more likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times along with stronger winds and the risk of some snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. Towards the end of January onwards, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2019 to Friday 18 Jan 2019:

Many western and northwestern areas will be dry on Wednesday with long sunny spells after a cold and frosty start. A few showers towards the east, which could be wintry across eastern Scotland and northeast England. Windy in the east and central areas, with a risk of gales towards the coast, adding to the cold feel. Towards the end of next week, it looks like it will stay predominately settled, with light winds and the likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Thereafter, there could be a transition to more changeable conditions. The most settled weather is likely to last for longest across the south. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are more likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times along with stronger winds and the risk of some snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Upgrade.. smelling the PM flow?

[Weathizard]

Another paragraph of fence sitting, shows the severe uncertainty at the moment in all the models. 

[northwestsnow]

Its screaming PM influence to me..

Then the real fun..

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Another paragraph of fence sitting, shows the severe uncertainty at the moment in all the models. 

At the moment?...they've been uncertain in these updates since late October! and largely not been hugely accurate.

[cobbett]

and removed the 'milder' reference for the West !