Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:

 Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited December 18, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Froze were the Days]

To be honest you won't get a more positive cold outlook from the MetO than that at a certain range!...about as bullish as they get, doesn't mean it will happen though so fingers crossed!

[It Might Snow]

13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

To be honest you won't get a more positive cold outlook from the MetO than that at a certain range!...about as bullish as they get, doesn't mean it will happen though so fingers crossed!

Well if you liked that update the correct one for today is even better as that is yesterdays update still. Here is the correct one.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:

Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

Updated: 01:26 on Tue 18 Dec 2018 GMT

[ALL ABOARD]

9 minutes ago, It Might Snow said:

Well if you liked that update the correct one for today is even better as that is yesterdays update still. Here is the correct one.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:

Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

Updated: 01:26 on Tue 18 Dec 2018 GMT

WOW.

Christmas just came early.

[Froze were the Days]

It's practically the same...bar the odd changed word, still very positive from the MetO as said, let's hope they're in the ball park.

[Decemberof2010]

14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

It's practically the same...bar the odd changed word, still very positive from the MetO as said, let's hope they're in the ball park.

It is, but some subtle upgrade points. Naming areas for wintry conditions for a start. They are never this bullish so far ahead. This update has a 2010 ring to it. I’ve read the 2010 met 16-30 dayers a while ago. These last few updates are very similar 

[karyo]

Yes, the update is certainly an improvement. 

[Norrance]

Better for up here. Recent forecasts had said cold and dry in the North with showers in SE. Now the split is more E/W. I assume from this that the HP will be further North.

[Stuie]

3 hours ago, Norrance said:

Better for up here. Recent forecasts had said cold and dry in the North with showers in SE. Now the split is more E/W. I assume from this that the HP will be further North.

Looks that way regarding the E/W split as East Anglia`s wording is exactly the same as oop North. There is wording there that does include the west but only if the Atlantic has any incursions which to me looks like we are totally looking at a pure Easterly.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:

There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period. However, central and western areas are more likely to see cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain on Christmas Eve, whilst it will most likely be drier and brighter elsewhere. Meanwhile, many will most likely see a mild day on Christmas Day itself, with increasing amounts of dry weather. Thereafter, as we continue towards the end of the year, southern parts will probably see a good deal of dry weather, although with this settled weather comes an increased risk of overnight fog and frost. Northern parts, meanwhile, look set to see more changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

The beginning of this period most likely brings further dry weather in the south but showers and longer spells of rain in the north. However, the unsettled weather may extend to all parts for a time in early January. There is low confidence in the forecast thereafter, although we will most probably see a colder and drier period with the potential for easterly winds and a chance of some wintry weather for parts of the UK. We may also see occasional frontal systems try to make inroads, bringing the chance of further wintry weather in the west. However, despite this potential shift to colder weather, wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[suffolkboy_]

Quite a substantial change of wording on today's update...and not for the better unfortunately.

[Rambo]

Is winter over now then?  

[johnholmes]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:

There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period. However, central and western areas are more likely to see cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain on Christmas Eve, whilst it will most likely be drier and brighter elsewhere. Meanwhile, many will most likely see a mild day on Christmas Day itself, with increasing amounts of dry weather. Thereafter, as we continue towards the end of the year, southern parts will probably see a good deal of dry weather, although with this settled weather comes an increased risk of overnight fog and frost. Northern parts, meanwhile, look set to see more changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

So in just 24 hours UK Met have gone from a coldish Xmas Day to a mild one for areas away from the west, and it seems central areas now!

Their actual words

yesterday=the rest of the UK looking drier. For Christmas Day itself, it may be drier, brighter and colder for most, followed by some rain later

and today=Meanwhile, many will most likely see a mild day on Christmas Day itself, with increasing amounts of dry weather

 

I have to say I do not find such a change very impressive for a forecast 24 hours apart!

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

What a load of rubbish...they've covered all bases there then. Seriously these MetO updates have been worthless since early November!

[mountain shadow]

Oh dear. Looks like their data is starting to backtrack on any positive cold for us. Lets hope the downgrades don't continue.

[Polar Maritime]

Reads the same with just different wording to me.. Still very uncertain on detail.

[matt111]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Reads the same with just different wording to me.. Still very uncertain on detail.

Very much what I thought. Reading between the lines it’s not a whole lot different to before. 

[bradymk]

8 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

Quite a substantial change of wording on today's update...and not for the better unfortunately.

Maybe im too optimistic but I look at it as just a slight delay in the cold compared to the other update but still there. Clearly a lot of uncertainty with the upcoming SSW and not enough clarity yet for them to make a full commitment to cold in terms of timescales. 

[iceman1991]

I smell backtracking 

[bluearmy]

They have clearly changed the way they write these - used to be quite subtle changes across the week - now it’s almost like a CFS daily run commentary ! (Well not like that but you get the drift) 

imo, glosea has changed somewhat and this update fits more with the ec46 where the deeper cold set in last third jan 

[Weathizard]

Dreadful update, anyone who thinks that’s basically the same must be in denial! 

[iceman1991]

Does any one no what happend 2010 dec colder with the updates the lead up to it ? 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Dreadful update, anyone who thinks that’s basically the same must be in denial! 

Yes, it means the boundary between cold and mild is much further East and now any severely cold uppers Easterly is unlikely (in their view of course), it  now means we are reliant on battlegrounds which at times the mild air will win.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Does any one no what happend 2010 dec colder with the updates the lead up to it ? 

They were pretty confident but didn't over do the ramping, you can find the updates probably somewhere in the archives, this one goes back until 2013 but im sure they were posted in here before then.