Meto Uk Further Outlook

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Indeed mate, and the first signs of an update for January suggesting a less-likely occurrence of Atlantic-driven weather. 

Yesterday said, "temperatures likely to recover above average", and today's "signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather".

Yaaaaaaaay..

I would imagine there is scope for upgrades if Glosea is seeing a SSW in Jan..

Certainly looks like next week at the very least will be cold seasonal weather , thank gawd for that because yesterday aside its been a horrid week or so round here.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2018 to Thursday 20 Dec 2018:

Next Tuesday and Wednesday are predominantly settled but cold, with a few showers in the east which could be wintry. Sunshine for many, but parts of the west and southwest may be cloudier with a chance of patchy rain. Through the rest of the period there is a fine balance between the colder drier weather in the east, and Atlantic weather systems trying to push in from the west. The best of the clearer weather should remain in the east, with any wet and windy weather probably confined to the west and northwest, although rain may spread eastwards at times, bringing with it a risk of hill snow. Temperatures generally below normal, perhaps milder at times in the west, as well as in any brief unsettled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Friday 4 Jan 2019:

This period is likely to start with a mixture of weather, with spells of settled, drier and colder conditions with overnight frost and fog, but also with a chance of occasional bouts of windy and showery weather bringing a risk of snow. By Christmas and through the last week of December there is a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with western areas seeing spells of windy, wet and milder weather, with the best of any drier but colder weather the east and south. By the New Year there is very low confidence in the forecast, but there are signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[ALL ABOARD]

That's the exact same as yesterday isn't it? 

[Decemberof2010]

Yes, you can go a few days with no change to the wording 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Dec 2018 to Friday 21 Dec 2018:

Many will be dry, settled but cold through Wednesday and Thursday with eastern and southeastern areas often fine with some sunshine. Elsewhere, skies may perhaps be cloudier with western parts seeing rain and strengthening winds, with a risk of hill snow in the north. Through the remainder of this period there is a fine balance between colder air to the east and milder air in the west. Overall, it is likely to be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, with the threat of snow over high ground. Northern and some eastern areas may remain drier with the best of the clearer weather, leading to overnight frosts. Overall, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, but coldest in the east and mildest in the west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Saturday 5 Jan 2019:

This period, which includes Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground, less so in eastern and southeastern parts of the UK. The best of any settled and drier conditions will probably be across northern parts of the country during this period, where overnight frosts are likely. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK, bringing more settled conditions, although there remains some uncertainty, with an unsettled and westerly airflow equally as likely into the New Year. Temperatures overall look rather mixed, but on the whole generally near normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

A bit underwhelming today! Basically equal chance between westerlies and more settle weather with high pressure nearby. We lost the wording of colder weather with the high pressure.

[iceman1991]

Seems like the cold weather just keeps getting pushed back all the time before you know it we will be into April

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Saturday 5 Jan 2019:

This period, which includes Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground, less so in eastern and southeastern parts of the UK. The best of any settled and drier conditions will probably be across northern parts of the country during this period, where overnight frosts are likely. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK, bringing more settled conditions, although there remains some uncertainty, with an unsettled and westerly airflow equally as likely into the New Year. Temperatures overall look rather mixed, but on the whole generally near normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Given what we've seen from the models of late (uncertainty by the bucket-load) I'd give the Met 10/10, for that forecast...

[Decemberof2010]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

A bit underwhelming today! Basically equal chance between westerlies and more settle weather with high pressure nearby. We lost the wording of colder weather with the high pressure.

Yes and i am a bit suprised. I was expecting a similar update to yesterday or a slight improvement. I was under the impression they use the ec46? If so that’s not exactly going on that latest forecast

[karyo]

49 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Yes and i am a bit suprised. I was expecting a similar update to yesterday or a slight improvement. I was under the impression they use the ec46? If so that’s not exactly going on that latest forecast

Maybe they have seen how next week has imploded and are more cautious as a result.

[Boro Snow]

1 hour ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Yes and i am a bit suprised. I was expecting a similar update to yesterday or a slight improvement. I was under the impression they use the ec46? If so that’s not exactly going on that latest forecast

I thought it was the BBC who use the ec46, Met use there own models I thought, could be wrong though 

[SLEETY]

was weeks 5 onwards showing the cold charts wasn’t it on ec46, meto only go 4 weeks ahead,not as if the ec46 will verify does it ever at that range.

[Decemberof2010]

14 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

I thought it was the BBC who use the ec46, Met use there own models I thought, could be wrong though 

You may be right. I thought the MO use their own models and also ec46. I could quite easily be wrong. I usually am

[jules216]

I have seen the ECMWF 46 days forecast and although there is blocking present it is not overly cold pattern as the through sits just east of UK. We will be pumping mild air in to central EU and availability of really frigid winds would be limited, you need a more elongated low anomaly that spreads as far east as baltics or western russia which is not there on EC46d as there is higher pressure anomaly there. to me it screams more west based NAO. I know it is only ensemble mean and no point of arguing about detailed positioning now

Edited December 7, 2018 by jules216

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2018 to Saturday 22 Dec 2018:

Thursday looks set to be wet and very windy in the west, but cold and dry in the east. Where these two weather types meet, there could be some snow, probably over high ground in the north. Through the remainder of this period, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow will be confined to high ground in the north. Northern and some eastern areas may remain drier and the best of the sunshine is likely here. Clearer colder nights in these parts is likely to lead to some frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Sunday 6 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. The best of any settled and drier weather will probably be across northern parts of the UK during this period, so overnight frosts are more likely here. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather. There remains some uncertainty about this; if the high pressure is offset to the west or east of the UK, wet and windy weather would dominate. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Dec 2018 to Sunday 23 Dec 2018:

Friday looks likely to be wet and possibly very windy in the northwest, and colder and drier in the far east. There could be some snow where the colder air meets the wet weather, most likely over the hills in the north, but it may fall to lower levels in places too. Over next weekend, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow is most likely on high ground in the north. During the following week, eastern and southern areas may become drier for a time with more sunshine but clearer colder nights would lead to some night frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Monday 7 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, and a greater chance of night frosts. There remains some uncertainty about this; if the high pressure is offset to the west or east of the UK, wet and windy weather would dominate.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Dec 2018 to Sunday 23 Dec 2018:

Friday looks likely to be wet and possibly very windy in the northwest, and colder and drier in the far east. There could be some snow where the colder air meets the wet weather, most likely over the hills in the north, but it may fall to lower levels in places too. Over next weekend, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow is most likely on high ground in the north. During the following week, eastern and southern areas may become drier for a time with more sunshine but clearer colder nights would lead to some night frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Fab update - lower ground Also the drier theme for week commencing 17th Dec when compared to previous updates. 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2018 to Monday 24 Dec 2018:

A spell of wet and windy weather looks likely to move east across the country on Saturday. There could be some snow where the colder air meets the wet weather, most likely over the hills in the north, but it may fall to lower levels in places too. Thereafter, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow is most likely on high ground in the north. During the following week,there may be some drier spells for a time with more sunshine, but clearer colder nights would lead to some night frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, and a greater chance of night frosts and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, and a greater chance of night frosts and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

A precursor to Slidergate 7 no less!

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, and a greater chance of night frosts and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Hmm, at least they’ve dropped the possibility of unsettled conditions continuing into January.